Another week goes by in the NFL and another group of NFL
players hit the infirmary. I can only imagine how thankful the healthy
players are at the time of year. Of course, I always read that no starter is ever "healthy" at this point in the year. It is always a matter of how much pain you can put up with. As fans, we complain when a player slides or runs out of bounds or the refs call a personal foul on an inadvertent shot to the head. However, it doesn't take much to ruin a career. Just look at Jahvid Best. He suffered a concussion on 10/16/2011...over a year ago... and he is not back. I
can't imagine the frustration of not being able to use your talents due
to an injury, especially when you look up at the TV as see no-talent
hacks like Jon Cryer or whoever the people are on The Big Bang Theory getting paid. Hell, that frustrates me and I am as healthy as a middle-aged doughboy can be.
There are only a few weeks left before fantasy football league playoffs start, so you want to add some depth to protect against injury or replace non-performers or recently-injured players. There seems to be a nice selection of available players on the waiver wire right now:
QB: Jake Locker (TENN) – Locker is back at the helm for Tennessee and has a great matchup in line for this weekend. The job is his so I would rather start him over Colin Kaepernick (SF) since Harbaugh could easily split reps between him and Alex Smith or start Smith.
RB:
Ronnie Hillman (DEN) – Before the season, we expected Hillman to
replace McGahee at some point this year. It took a lot longer than we
imagined. Due to the duration, he ended up on many waiver wires so grab him like the last beer at a tailgater.
RB: James Starks
(GB) – Cedric Benson is still a few weeks off from returning, so, for
immediate help, it appears that the Packers are going to Starks full
time.
RB: Jalen
Parmele (JAX) – The Rashad Jennings experience is on hold. He looked so
good in pre-season and has done so bad during the season. Marmele looked very good last week against a solid Texans run defense. MoJo will be back soon, so this is a short-term fill-in.
WR: Ryan Broyles (DET) – Broyles was recommended here last week and his stock shot further up after Titus Young was inactivated for at least this week due to a bad attitude. If you have Young, I recommend dropping him as Mike Thomas is now above him on the depth chart.
TE: Dustin Keller (NYJ) – The Jets are just terrible offensively. However,
they know that Keller is integral to their offense and a matchup for
New England is the perfect spot to re-introduce him to those who forgot
about him. If you need to replace Gronk, going Gang Green is your answer.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Happy Returns
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! I am back from my one-week hiatus and am thankful for the time off. After picking Tennessee two weeks in a row, I needed some time for rest and reflection. I did have a very nice week in Week 10, but I sure did appreciate Rob filling in for me.....I hope you appreciated it as well as his picks put money on the table that could have been used to put today's spread on the table. Speaking of which, I need to get this out so I can get to chowing down!
Washington at Dallas - Some people are mentioning "Dallas" and "playoffs" in the same sentence and are somehow omitting the word "watching". The Cowboys were gifted a game last Sunday by the Browns. The Redskins are not the Browns, even with a beat-up defense. Washington will go into Dallas and win today.
Indianapolis vs. Buffalo - As great of a story as Andrew Luck and the Colts are, the fact of the matter is that their defense is absolutely terrible. Tom Brady makes great defenses looks bad, but even Ryan Tannehill threw for 290 on Indy. The run defense isn't much better. Shonn Green looked like he was back at Iowa running over the Indiana Hoosiers when they met last month in New York. Though they are the Bills, they have a lot of offensive talent and can match scores with Indy. I really don't like picking a Side in this game, but I love the Over!
Carolina at Philadelphia - Only Philadelphia can make a long-discussed move to Nick Foles at QB (via Michael Vick's injury) and immediately start regretting it. Foles did not endear himself to the Philly Faithful last week. Sadly, the only player I like on the team, LeSean McCoy, took a bad shot to the head last Sunday and is out for awhile since he is still suffering headaches. The season is over for Philly and they have quit attempting to be competitive. Carolina has been a major disappointment this year as well, but they are still playing and looking to build momentum for next season. This game won't be close. Panthers in a walk.
7-Point Teaser bet of the week:Washington +10.5
Tampa +8.5
New Orleans +8
Carolina +4.5
Washington at Dallas - Some people are mentioning "Dallas" and "playoffs" in the same sentence and are somehow omitting the word "watching". The Cowboys were gifted a game last Sunday by the Browns. The Redskins are not the Browns, even with a beat-up defense. Washington will go into Dallas and win today.
Indianapolis vs. Buffalo - As great of a story as Andrew Luck and the Colts are, the fact of the matter is that their defense is absolutely terrible. Tom Brady makes great defenses looks bad, but even Ryan Tannehill threw for 290 on Indy. The run defense isn't much better. Shonn Green looked like he was back at Iowa running over the Indiana Hoosiers when they met last month in New York. Though they are the Bills, they have a lot of offensive talent and can match scores with Indy. I really don't like picking a Side in this game, but I love the Over!
Carolina at Philadelphia - Only Philadelphia can make a long-discussed move to Nick Foles at QB (via Michael Vick's injury) and immediately start regretting it. Foles did not endear himself to the Philly Faithful last week. Sadly, the only player I like on the team, LeSean McCoy, took a bad shot to the head last Sunday and is out for awhile since he is still suffering headaches. The season is over for Philly and they have quit attempting to be competitive. Carolina has been a major disappointment this year as well, but they are still playing and looking to build momentum for next season. This game won't be close. Panthers in a walk.
7-Point Teaser bet of the week:Washington +10.5
Tampa +8.5
New Orleans +8
Carolina +4.5
Time To Head
Week 10 of the NFL brought a few issues to a head; lame
duck coaches and head injuries. Of course, neither of these is new news.
The NFL has been a violent game for years and will continue to be so.
In light of the long-term effects of players, such as Jim McMahon, and
the devastating course of action taken by Dave Duerson, every head
injury raises a red flag. Sadly, there is way too much grey area in what
is a legal hit and what is an intentional head shot. The game is way
too fast to make tackling adjustments when multiple players combine on a
tackle and the ballcarrier’s body snaps in an unexpected direction and
ends up in the path of an oncoming tackler. Not every contact to the
head can be avoided, but every single one gets called. It is ruining the
game. It would make much more sense to flag intentional shots and grade
the intent, much like fouls in basketball. Flagrant fouls get you
kicked out of the game. Non-flagrant fouls get you a warning, but 2 or 3
get you ejected…where there is smoke….
When it comes to coaching in the NFL, jobs are as tenuous as a kicker’s. After 10 weeks, you can almost always start circling coaches on their way out. Rex Ryan, voted the league’s most overrated coach, is gone. Someone has to take the blame for this team’s offensive struggles. It should be the idiot who thought that Mark Sanchez was an NFL QB and greatly overpaid him…and then thought that Tebow could be Jeremy Lin’s replacement in NYC. I haven’t seen a team with worse QBs since 2004 when the Bears trotted out Craig Krenzel, Chad Hutchinson, Jonathan Quinn and Rex Grossman. Andy Reid is also gone. It is amusing how high the expectations started last year (Dream Team) to where this team is now. So much talent….so little production.
With three QBs leaving games last week to concussions, one would have expected a bigger impact on our fantasy games. But, there really wasn’t much. A very small percentage of teams started Jay Cutler in bad weather versus a stout Texan defense. That is also true of Michael Vick against a solid Cowboys secondary, unless you were in a league that does not penalize for turnovers, or Alex Smith because, well, he’s Alex Smith. The QB injury that really hurt was Big Ben. I know it cost me badly in many of my leagues as he is always underrated, both on his performance and on his toughness. When he left the game, and left the stadium, last weekend, I knew I was hitting the waiver wire. Sadly, with Pitt past their Bye week, I actually dropped my backup QBs to make room for more RB backups. Not a solid strategy, but one that I felt comfortable with at the time. Based on Ben’s numbers so far this year while playing with a rotator cuff issue and the fact that he has nothing upstairs, I didn’t fear an injury. Always fear the unknown, Bill!!! Now I am stuck begging, or overpaying for a trade, or picking the crap off the scrap. Matt Cassel…no thank you. Ryan Tannehill…what happened to you? Rookie wall already? Byron Leftwich…uh, no. Maybe Nick Foles will save my season.
As far as other potential saviors for the upcoming weeks:
QB: Jake Locker (TENN) – Locker is healthy again and has a few good December matchups in you are in need of a backup QB and have an open roster slot.
RB: Danny Woodhead (NE) – The Patriots run up against some tough run defenses in the upcoming weeks. Woodhead is always a good option with short dumpoffs when the Pats can’t run the ball.
RB: Cedric Benson (GB) – Benson is still a few weeks from returning. With Alex Green and James Starks not lighting it up, Benson will jump back in when healthy.
WR: Ryan Broyles (DET) – The Lions are playing better and Broyles is getting on the field for many more plays since he appears fully recovered from his knee injury. With Titus Young dealing with a lingering knee issue of his own, Broyles has become a WR3 option for many teams.
TE: Logan Paulsen (WASH) – Chris Cooley isn’t going to work out as well as everyone thought when they signed him after Fred Davis went out for the year.
When it comes to coaching in the NFL, jobs are as tenuous as a kicker’s. After 10 weeks, you can almost always start circling coaches on their way out. Rex Ryan, voted the league’s most overrated coach, is gone. Someone has to take the blame for this team’s offensive struggles. It should be the idiot who thought that Mark Sanchez was an NFL QB and greatly overpaid him…and then thought that Tebow could be Jeremy Lin’s replacement in NYC. I haven’t seen a team with worse QBs since 2004 when the Bears trotted out Craig Krenzel, Chad Hutchinson, Jonathan Quinn and Rex Grossman. Andy Reid is also gone. It is amusing how high the expectations started last year (Dream Team) to where this team is now. So much talent….so little production.
With three QBs leaving games last week to concussions, one would have expected a bigger impact on our fantasy games. But, there really wasn’t much. A very small percentage of teams started Jay Cutler in bad weather versus a stout Texan defense. That is also true of Michael Vick against a solid Cowboys secondary, unless you were in a league that does not penalize for turnovers, or Alex Smith because, well, he’s Alex Smith. The QB injury that really hurt was Big Ben. I know it cost me badly in many of my leagues as he is always underrated, both on his performance and on his toughness. When he left the game, and left the stadium, last weekend, I knew I was hitting the waiver wire. Sadly, with Pitt past their Bye week, I actually dropped my backup QBs to make room for more RB backups. Not a solid strategy, but one that I felt comfortable with at the time. Based on Ben’s numbers so far this year while playing with a rotator cuff issue and the fact that he has nothing upstairs, I didn’t fear an injury. Always fear the unknown, Bill!!! Now I am stuck begging, or overpaying for a trade, or picking the crap off the scrap. Matt Cassel…no thank you. Ryan Tannehill…what happened to you? Rookie wall already? Byron Leftwich…uh, no. Maybe Nick Foles will save my season.
As far as other potential saviors for the upcoming weeks:
QB: Jake Locker (TENN) – Locker is healthy again and has a few good December matchups in you are in need of a backup QB and have an open roster slot.
RB: Danny Woodhead (NE) – The Patriots run up against some tough run defenses in the upcoming weeks. Woodhead is always a good option with short dumpoffs when the Pats can’t run the ball.
RB: Cedric Benson (GB) – Benson is still a few weeks from returning. With Alex Green and James Starks not lighting it up, Benson will jump back in when healthy.
WR: Ryan Broyles (DET) – The Lions are playing better and Broyles is getting on the field for many more plays since he appears fully recovered from his knee injury. With Titus Young dealing with a lingering knee issue of his own, Broyles has become a WR3 option for many teams.
TE: Logan Paulsen (WASH) – Chris Cooley isn’t going to work out as well as everyone thought when they signed him after Fred Davis went out for the year.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Decision Time
Another week, another list of players who are "game-time
decisions". Life gets more difficult for us fantasy team owners as the
NFL allows its coaches to play games with player injury statuses. Back
in "the day", teams would release player statuses well in advance of
their games. Not any longer. Teams are required to give a status on
Friday, but it doesn't have to be accurate. So, if you own Percy Harvin,
Jonathan Dwyer, Danny Amendola or any other player that is Questionable
or Doubtful, you need to have a Plan B ready as soon as the teams
release their Active/Non-Active player list 90 minutes before their
game's kickoff. Of course, that isn't helpful if you are waiting on a
decision for Owen Daniels or Antonio Brown since they are involved in
the last two games of the week.
If that isn't bad enough, you have players that are on the proverbial short leash. Michael Vick seems to be on a play-by-play hot seat. He has felt like Barack Obama did on Tuesday night for quite some time; he still has the job, but over half the people who follow him are rooting for him to lose his job. If that isn't bad enough, in this world of social media, his brother, Marcus, has to chime in on his behalf on Twitter. In that respect, he can empathize with Ozzie Guillen and the trouble caused by his son posting opinions on Twitter. Truthfully, I don't have time, or interest, in Twitter as a reliable medium for news, but it is somehow a pipeline into mass media reporting. The downside of that for people like Marcus Vick is that it does expose shortcomings in one's ability to formulate proper 140-character English sentences. Marcus commits linguistic sins as quickly as Michael commits turnovers. At least they will be able to keep each other company after the season is over and neither one has a job to report to.
Though I believe Vick stays on the field as long as he stays healthy, I do believe you should keep an eye on these players this weekend and be ready to pull the ol' switcheroo if needed.
Percy Harvin - with a high ankle sprain, I would consider him Out. The Vikings are desperate for a win and may consider heavily taping Harvin up and letting him hobble onto the field. I wouldn't risk starting him unless you are in an In-game change league. Just ask those Jordy Nelson owners how happy they were to start him last weekend when he was activated just before the Packers-Cardinals game.
Antonio Brown - another ankle sprain. Since the Steelers have an easy matchup and plenty of receivers, do not count on him playing. If you don't want to listen, be sure to add Emmanuel Sanders to your bench to swap in on Monday night.
Darren McFadden - another ankle sprain, but he is listed as Out. Of course, he is not the poster child for durability, but you can use this as a benchmark for the players listed above. The Raiders will be chasing points in their game versus the Ravens (the Ravens tend to play much better at home than on the road) so I would have Marcel Reece on my squad if I need to replace McFadden this week.
Owen Daniels - with a bad back and a matchup in Chicago against the Bears, I would not wait until Sunday night to move Daniels to my bench. If you need a backup, get Brandon Myers from Oakland. I would have expected his ownership to skyrocket after he finally found the end zone (twice) last weekend, but it only moderately increased. Tight End is a deep position in fantasy football, but this guy is putting up starter numbers and should be added.
Other players with lots of availability that will be helpful if you need a fill-in are QB Ryan Tannehill (MIA), RB Joique Bell (DET), RB Shane Vereen (NE), RB Daniel Thomas (MIA), WR Danario Alexander (STL), WR Golden Tate (SEA).
If that isn't bad enough, you have players that are on the proverbial short leash. Michael Vick seems to be on a play-by-play hot seat. He has felt like Barack Obama did on Tuesday night for quite some time; he still has the job, but over half the people who follow him are rooting for him to lose his job. If that isn't bad enough, in this world of social media, his brother, Marcus, has to chime in on his behalf on Twitter. In that respect, he can empathize with Ozzie Guillen and the trouble caused by his son posting opinions on Twitter. Truthfully, I don't have time, or interest, in Twitter as a reliable medium for news, but it is somehow a pipeline into mass media reporting. The downside of that for people like Marcus Vick is that it does expose shortcomings in one's ability to formulate proper 140-character English sentences. Marcus commits linguistic sins as quickly as Michael commits turnovers. At least they will be able to keep each other company after the season is over and neither one has a job to report to.
Though I believe Vick stays on the field as long as he stays healthy, I do believe you should keep an eye on these players this weekend and be ready to pull the ol' switcheroo if needed.
Percy Harvin - with a high ankle sprain, I would consider him Out. The Vikings are desperate for a win and may consider heavily taping Harvin up and letting him hobble onto the field. I wouldn't risk starting him unless you are in an In-game change league. Just ask those Jordy Nelson owners how happy they were to start him last weekend when he was activated just before the Packers-Cardinals game.
Antonio Brown - another ankle sprain. Since the Steelers have an easy matchup and plenty of receivers, do not count on him playing. If you don't want to listen, be sure to add Emmanuel Sanders to your bench to swap in on Monday night.
Darren McFadden - another ankle sprain, but he is listed as Out. Of course, he is not the poster child for durability, but you can use this as a benchmark for the players listed above. The Raiders will be chasing points in their game versus the Ravens (the Ravens tend to play much better at home than on the road) so I would have Marcel Reece on my squad if I need to replace McFadden this week.
Owen Daniels - with a bad back and a matchup in Chicago against the Bears, I would not wait until Sunday night to move Daniels to my bench. If you need a backup, get Brandon Myers from Oakland. I would have expected his ownership to skyrocket after he finally found the end zone (twice) last weekend, but it only moderately increased. Tight End is a deep position in fantasy football, but this guy is putting up starter numbers and should be added.
Other players with lots of availability that will be helpful if you need a fill-in are QB Ryan Tannehill (MIA), RB Joique Bell (DET), RB Shane Vereen (NE), RB Daniel Thomas (MIA), WR Danario Alexander (STL), WR Golden Tate (SEA).
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Midseason Report Card
At roughly the midpoint of the season, it is time to reflect upon the first half of the season. At this point, I wouldn't say that any team has surprised me to the upside, but numerous teams are severely underperforming compared to my expectations. I did not expect Buffalo and Kansas City to be so porous on defense and I certainly did not expect the Saints to be so inconsistent on offense. The NFC North is, by far, the best division in football. It will be fun to watch the Bears attempt to hold off the Packers. I am not sure if the AFC East or the AFC West is the worst conference. It is not fair to compare the two since the AFC West is perennially handicapped by the Raiders. It is so bad in the AFC East that, somehow, the Jets still have a reasonable chance to make the playoffs....but don't bet on it! Speaking of wagers, let's take a look at the Win projections that Ron and I put together to start the season.
Bill
AFC Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Buffalo
AFC Championship game: New England over Baltimore
NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Fran
NFC Wildcards: New Orleans, Chicago
NFC Championship game: Green Bay over Atlanta
Super Bowl Champs: Green Bay
Ron
AFC Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver
AFC Wildcards: Baltimore, Kansas City
AFC Championship game: New England over Houston
NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Fran
NFC Wildcards: NY Giants, Chicago
NFC Championship game: San Francisco over Chicago
Super Bowl Champs: San Francisco
| East | Bill | Ron | Act | East | Bill | Ron | Act | |
| New England | 13 | 12 | 5 | Philly | 9 | 10 | 3 | |
| Buffalo | 10 | 9 | 3 | Dallas | 8 | 8 | 3 | |
| NY Jets | 9 | 7 | 3 | NY Giants | 8 | 9 | 6 | |
| Miami | 6 | 3 | 4 | Wash | 6 | 5 | 3 | |
| North | North | |||||||
| Baltimore | 10 | 10 | 5 | GB | 12 | 12 | 5 | |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 8 | 4 | Chicago | 11 | 10 | 6 | |
| Cincy | 7 | 10 | 3 | Detroit | 9 | 9 | 3 | |
| Cleveland | 5 | 3 | 2 | Minny | 5 | 4 | 5 | |
| South | South | |||||||
| Houston | 10 | 11 | 6 | Atlanta | 10 | 11 | 7 | |
| Tenn | 8 | 9 | 3 | NO | 9 | 9 | 2 | |
| Indy | 4 | 5 | 4 | Carolina | 8 | 7 | 1 | |
| Jax | 3 | 3 | 1 | TB | 8 | 7 | 3 | |
| West | West | |||||||
| KC | 9 | 9 | 1 | SF | 9 | 12 | 6 | |
| Oakland | 8 | 7 | 3 | Seattle | 6 | 9 | 4 | |
| San Diego | 7 | 8 | 4 | Arizona | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
| Denver | 7 | 9 | 4 | St. Louis | 6 | 6 | 3 | |
Bill
AFC Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Buffalo
AFC Championship game: New England over Baltimore
NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Fran
NFC Wildcards: New Orleans, Chicago
NFC Championship game: Green Bay over Atlanta
Super Bowl Champs: Green Bay
Ron
AFC Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver
AFC Wildcards: Baltimore, Kansas City
AFC Championship game: New England over Houston
NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Fran
NFC Wildcards: NY Giants, Chicago
NFC Championship game: San Francisco over Chicago
Super Bowl Champs: San Francisco
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