Weather begins to play a big factor in NFL games when it comes to wagering and setting fantasy lineups. While we don’t expect this current spate of bad weather to be the norm, make sure that you are taking it into account going forward. Dome games become much more enticing, especially for Daily/Weekly fantasy lineups. I am tweaking these ranking a bit to align with our current contests; Daily Best Team and Daily Touchdown Only contests.
Top rankings for Best team (in order)
QB: Luck, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Ryan, Brees, Kaepernick
RB: Charles, Murray, Lacy, McCoy, Forte, Foster, Ingram
WR: D. Thomas, Bryant, Nelson, Evans, Marshall, Gordon, Maclin, Hilton, Jeffery, J. Jones, T. Smith (Bal), Cobb, Beckham Jr
TE: Gronk, Graham, Gates, Kelce, Donnell, Bennett
K: Vinatieri, Tucker, Bryant, Zuerlein, Goskowski, Bullock, Dawson
D: Kansas City, St. Louis, Philly, San Fran, Seattle, Dallas, Houston
Sleepers for Best team (in order)
QB: Hoyer, Flacco, McCown, Sanchez
RB: D. Robinson, Tre Mason, Isaiah Crowell, Charles Sims
WR: Britt, Shorts III, Wayne, Hawkins, Landry
TE: Fleener, Rivera, Lewis, Cook
Top rankings for TD Only (in order)
QB: Luck, Rodgers, Ryan, Manning, Brady, Brees, Kaepernick
RB: Charles, Lacy, Murray, Foster, Ingram, McCoy, Forte
WR: D. Thomas, Bryant, Nelson, Evans, Marshall, Gordon, J. Jones, Maclin, Hilton, Jeffery, T. Smith (Bal), Cobb, Beckham Jr
TE: Gronk, Graham, Donnell, Gates, Kelce, Bennett
D: Kansas City, Houston, Philly, St. Louis, San Fran, Seattle, Dallas
Sleepers for TD Only (in order)
QB: Flacco, McCown, Hoyer, Sanchez
RB: Isaiah Crowell, D. Robinson, Tre Mason, Chris Ivory, Joique Bell, Jonas Gray
WR: Britt, Shorts III, Landry, Wayne, Hawkins
TE: Rivera, Lewis, Cook, Fleener
Aside from believing too much in the road-sad Steelers AGAIN, week 11 was a good week for us as we cashed every other play but the Game Over in Chicago. We are getting pretty picky on these games as the oddsmakers have put the numbers right on for many of them.
New England vs. Detroit U48 – the Patriots have been rolling nicely along but it has been against far inferior defenses. The Lions come into town sporting one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. That unit is solely responsible for the success of the team this year by holding all opponents in check, including completely shutting Aaron Rodgers down. Offensively, they have sputtered all year and have not improved with Megatron back, which will hold true again this week as he visits Revis Island. Play the Under 24 in the first half for 7 units and the Under 48 in the game for 7 units.
Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville O50.5 – there may be 100 passes thrown in this game as Indy launches 50 since it has no running game and Jax launches 50 while playing catch-up all game. The Jags will be able to score on Indy, not near enough, but they will score. This game should be an easy Over so play the Colts over the team total of 31.5 for 7 units and the Over of 50.5 in the game for 7 units.
Tampa +5.5 at Chicago – the story about this game is how the defense departed Chicago when Lovie left. Granted, it was not good enough to tout at the time, but Coach Trestman would sure love to have that defense back versus what he is saddled with currently. Josh McCown bears no ill will again his former employer but would like to showcase himself to the legion of Bears fans who would have preferred to see him under center this season and the Cutler millions spent improving the defense. With WR Mike Evans dominating the playing field, he should achieve that. Tampa doesn't win up north when the temps drop below 40…game time temp is expected to be 47. I think the Bucs walk away with a win. Play Tampa at +3 in the first half for 7 units, at +5.5 for the game at 7 units and place 2 units on the moneyline at +205.
St. Louis +4.5 at San Diego – the wrong team is favored here. The Rams are playing better ball right now than the Chargers did at any point in the season. I am not sure if the oddsmakers are thinking that the general public is expecting the Rams to be discovered as frauds or not when setting this line. After beating the Seahawks, Niners, and Broncos, I am not fooled. This team is good…even better with Shaun Hill under center. San Diego has completely underwhelmed for the past month and has gotten by due to eeking past the Raiders twice. I think the Rams win this game outright. Play St. Louis in the first half at +2.5 for 10 units, in the game at +4.5 for 10 units and place 4 units on the moneyline at +190.
Dallas -3 at New York Giants – I hate giving points on the road in divisional games, but it is hard not to take the Cowboys. They are coming off a Bye, are playing the talent-less Giants and are playing in November (Romo is 27-6 in November). The Giants haven’t covered since September so why expect it now. Play the Cowboys in the game minus the field goal for 8 units.
6-point Teaser Of The Week (7-to-1 odds) for 1 units
- KC -1
- Philly -5
- Tampa +11.5
- Rams +10.5
- Pats -1
- Niners -2.5
- Sides 23-25 (-50.9 units)
- Overs 17-11 (+38.1 units)
- Parlay 1-7 (-8.8 units)
- Teaser 1-9 (-3.0 units)
- Moneyline 4-4 (+8.6 units)