Friday, September 19, 2014

NFL Week 3 Picks

The first two weeks of the NFL season are in the books and they have followed the normal unpredictability that we have come to know, love, hate and shake our heads at. This sport is so Jekyll-and-Hyde that it drives us just as mad. It is no wonder that Vikings fans drink so much. Four Super Bowls…Four losses. No missed fields goals…until the Championship game clincher. A beat down in St. Louis followed by their own beat down at home followed by sad revelations about their franchise player who is now indefinitely off the team. Hell man, I had to take a few shots while tripping down that memory lane and I am not a fan. I am a fan at beating the spread, which proves to be very difficult in this sport, especially early in the season. Remember to always manage your bankroll! What is on tap for this weekend…

Sunday

New Orleans (-9.5) vs. Minnesota – sure…I just had to go there, didn’t I?! Truthfully, I liked the Saints even when it was thought that AP would play. New Orleans is one of those teams that you can expect to play bad outdoors on the road…though hard to bet against them in Cleveland. BUT, at home, they are a different animal. I have been lucky enough to attend a game and it is special. This game won’t be close. The Saints’ D will join the party this week and give everyone a feel good, not quite like what we saw in Atlanta versus Tampa, but it will be more than enough. Play the Saints for 10 units in the first half at -6 and for 10 units in the game at -9.5. I am hoping for a good 2H line as well and go for the sweep!

Houston (-1) at New York Giants – I guess one man can bring down a franchise. Not a lot has changed personnel-wise for Houston other than removing Pick-6 prone, Matt Schaub. Ryan Fitzpatrick has stepped into a nice set-up with the offensive weapons that the Texans have and has played conservative football, put up enough points to win and minimize the amount of time the D needs to be on the field and has watched the D dominate. JJ Watt is a MAN, baby! With Eli looking worse than a high school QB under center in the pros, this should be fun to watch! Houston wins this game and further embarrasses The Elite One. Play Houston and give the po’, measly point for 6 units.

Detroit vs. Green Bay O52 – Detroit’s defense is mediocre and not-so-smart. Green Bay has no defense (the Jets are not the offensive powerhouse that they appear to be in Lambeau). Both of these teams have weapons galore and will score into the high 20s and/or 30s. Play the Over 52 for 7 units.

New England (-14) vs. Oakland – New England’s revamped defense showed its teeth last week and is looking to do some chomping on Raider hide. Darrelle Revis takes James Jones out and who will produce for Oakland? This may be a shutout. The Pats need to work out their passing game and figure out who their go-to receivers are. They will do that in the first half and then let their running game, which looks good right now…and there was talk of Steven Ridley being cut late in pre-season, finish off Da Raiders. Play the Pats and give the big 14 for 7 units.

7-point Teaser Of The Week (2-to-1 odds) for 2 units
  • Saints   -2.5
  • Cincy    Pick ‘em
  • Patriots  -7
  • Bears    +10

Teaser of the Week (6-point 4-team). 3-to-1 odds.
  • Bears -0.5
  • Steelers -1
  • Cowboys Over 45
  • Bears Over 41

Survivor Pick: New Orleans

Season record
  • Sides   1-1  (-0.6 units)
  • Overs    2-3 (-2.4 units)
  • Parlay   0-1  (-2.0 units)
  • Teaser   0-1 (-1.0 units)
  • Moneyline 0-1  (-4.0 units)

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Sunday Bloody Sunday

I don’t recall another Sunday like this past Sunday in terms of the number of key players who did not make an impact due to injury. As far as Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice, you had to live under a very heavy rock not to know that they would not be playing. But, on top of that, there were the late Inactives, such as Carson Palmer, Doug Martin and Jordan Cameron. Reports of Alshon Jeffery AND Brandon Marshall being very questionable to play had to scare their owners, especially when ESPN reported a source saying that he was 75% sure that neither would play. Those who benched Marshall because of that report has to be more than a bit upset. You had to be going into your matchup(s) feeling pretty good if you survived that early onslaught of player benching and rumors of more.

And then the games started and news started pouring in about stars dropping like flies; A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, RG III, Knowshon Moreno, Allen Hurns, DeSean Jackson, Mark Ingram, Marcedes Lewis, and Jamal Charles were all hit early and hard, with only Bryant coming back into his game and looking like he will play this weekend. The late afternoon games started and the slaughter continued and Eric Decker, Ryan Mathews, Charles Tillman and finally, Vernon Davis, all hit the pine with injuries. It was a tough week not to have implemented In-game changes for many and for those who own multiple players from this list, it could be a struggle to field a decent team in the next few weeks as Bye weeks are just around the corner as well.

As always, don’t be the owner that didn’t back up their top picks, such as Charles with Knile Davis or Martin with Bobby Rainey. If you are, I hope you have a good waiver priority this week as they will be in high demand.

Waiver Wire Fodder

QB: Kirk Cousins (WASH) – for many owners, RGIII was a backup QB since he didn’t look good in pre-season and was an injury concern so not having Cousins is understandable. However, Cousins would fit nicely on anyone’s bench, as as a starting QB, since he has proven his talent and does have a number of weapons in DC, even with DeSean Jackson and TE Jordan Reed hurting.

RB: Donald Brown (SD) – Brown had a nice season in Indianapolis last year and should have been handcuffed to Ryan Mathews this year….but he is available in 50% of leagues so look to pick him up for RB depth since Mathews is out for a month.

RB: Knile Davis (KC) – The Knile was flowing freely on 25% of waiver wires at last check and is a must-add this week. He flashed his skills late last year and was ready to play last week in Denver when summoned. Charles has a tricky high ankle sprain, which is definitely a worse injury for running backs than many other positions. The Chiefs will not rush Charles back if Davis stays healthy and productive so he will be the lead back for at least a couple of games.

WR: Mohamed Sanu (CIN) – Even though the Bengals finally employed the youth duo of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill this past week, as was expected going into the season, they will air it out at times and Sanu is one of the few healthy receivers left on the team. He broke out for 3/84/1 receiving and tossed a 50-yard pass in week 2. While I wouldn’t expect the passing yards to continue, he should provide decent receiving numbers going forward.

WR: Andrew Hawkins (CLE) – A former running mate of Sanu’s, Hawkins has shown good repertoire with QB Brian Hoyer at the start of his Browns’ career and has breathed a bit of offensive spark into their offense. With TE Jordan Cameron out, the Browns have no go-to red zone option but love Hawkins speed and elusiveness and will work to get him the ball.

TE: Delanie Walker (TENN) – Walker had a huge game last week against Dallas in week 2. Now, Dallas was lit up by TE Vernon Davis of San Fran in week 1, so temper your expectations on a weekly basis but the Titans don’t have the kind of running game to keep defenses honest so Jake Locker seems to be looking his way as an outlet often.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Dashed and Rehashed

Week 1 is in the books and many hopes and dreams have already been dashed but many old realizations have been re-realized. Hey, if Eli Manning is Elite, re-realized is a valid word and can be used in a sentence. Speaking of the Giants, they are this year’s proof that pre-season records mean zero. Based on Monday night’s performance, they have little chance of equaling the number of pre-season wins in the regular season. In the fantasy football world, it was proved right away that you always want to back up your top running backs as Doug Martin, Zac Stacy and Ben Tate look like potential early-round busts. Of course, there are plenty of games left for them to shake off injuries and poor performance and earn their lofty draft positions. More about Week 1:

The Good:
  • Ryan Succop kicked 4 field goals for Tennessee to help beat the KC Chiefs, the team that dumped him a week ago.
  • Antonio Brown provided the best football highlight since the Butt Fumble.
  • Knownshon Moreno stuck it to everyone that thought he got fat and happy after his big year in Denver. He makes Miami a viable contender for the AFC East crown.
  • Rookie highlights: Terrance West (shocked that Ben Tate got hurt?), Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns all showed that the transition from college to the Pros is shrinking more and more each year.
  • Second half wagers are the way to go with wagering as Chicago, Philly, Cleveland, and Indy all rallied to close/cover big deficits and cover their second half numbers, though the amount wagered on Cleveland was a drop in the bucket compared to the other three teams.
  • Eli Manning – the obvious constant that did not change, as expected (the same could be said for Tony Romo, but he’ll get a pass since he was coming off of back surgery).

The Bad:
  • The Seattle Seahawks, or whatever entity manages their parking lots, charged $140 to park during the opening game versus the Packers. Of course, the remote local parking garages took advantage of that and significantly increased their prices to $60-$80, which seems like a bargain when you factor in the health benefits of the extra walking distance.
  • Jamaal Charles – though it is hard to blame Jamaal when the Chiefs barely utilized him in the first half, when the game was still in doubt. This team has all the makings of a bust this year.
  • The NFL is crazy pass-happy, (62 passes from Joe Flacco in regulation in a tight game) which means loads more penalties and more dead time. I guess it helps justify watching the games in bars so you can constantly shift focus from one game to the next in hopes of catching one not discussing a penalty, looking at a review or showing a commercial. My liver is gonna take a beating this season.
  • Larry Fitzgerald barely getting involved in the Cardinals offense. It saddens me that he didn’t get more than a few seasons with a top QB.
  • Jay Cutler – if Marc Tressman could lower the strength of Cutler’s arm, he certainly would since it has given Jay the impression that he can, and should, make every throw. Very Favresqe.
Happiness for league kitties is Week 1 transactions. This is when too many people dump players that they expected to do well but had a slow week 1 and pick up flash-in-the-pan players, such as Allen Hurns, only to see them disappear for the remainder of the season. Remember Kevin Ogletree? However, there are some worthy waiver wire candidates to grab if you in need of roster help.

The Waiver Wire:

QB: Jake Locker (TENN) – If you have Tony Romo, I wouldn’t cut him, but I would bench him until he shows that he is healthy. Locker is a solid play this week at home against a really bad Dallas defense.

RB: Terrance West (CLE) – If someone didn’t back up fragile Ben Tate with West or read our 2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers article, grab him immediately. If he is gone and you play in a deeper league, make sure to grab his running mate, Isaiah Crowell.

RB
: Justin Forsett (BAL) – Bernard Pierce failed for the second year in a row to take advantage of the opportunity to lock down the RB1 spot for the Ravens. Forsett was flashy with his 70 yards on 11 carries.

WR
: Steve Smith Sr (BAL) – With the Ravens looking to get their $20 million out of Flacco, there are plenty of throws to go around. Somehow, Torrey Smith has fallen out of favor in Baltimore and that makes Smith a must-add. He had 15 Targets in week 1, which amounted to 7 catches for 118 yards, including an 80-yard TD.

WR
: Andrew Hawkins (CLE) – It was wise to avoid Browns’ receivers in your draft, but with TE Jordan Cameron re-injuring his shoulder, Hawkins should be looking at double digit Targets weekly.

TE
: Larry Donnell (NYG) – With so many quality tight ends around the league, Donnell went undrafted in almost every fantasy football league. However, thanks to the Giants ineptitude in grasping the West Coast offense and inability to block, Donnell will be a much bigger factor in the Giants anemic offense this season. His 6’6” frame makes him much easier to find for Eli in his panic than the other receivers.

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Free NFL Week 1 Picks

YEA! The NFL is back! By now, we have all drafted more teams than we can really keep track of, we have made all of our pool picks and we have stocked the fridge with snacks and beers. The only thing left to do is to call the bookie. Remember that the season is not a sprint, it is a marathon so let's wager wisely. Week 1 is a very difficult wagering week since we really can't take much away from the pre-season. With that in mind, let's take a look at what I have to offer.

Sunday
Chicago (-6.5) vs Buffalo and O47 - The Bears defense has not improved and I expect both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to put up stellar numbers. However, that won't be enough against a Bears offense that is virtually unstoppable. It is SO weird to say that. What a juxtaposition! No way can you trust Buffalo's passing game. NO way. The Bears will score at will and I love not having to give a full TD. I know I said to ease into the season, but I feel comfortable with this game. Play the Bears in the game giving 6.5 for 6 units, play the Over 47 in the game for 6 units and play a 2 unit parlay with both bets. I also like the Bears' Team Total O27 for 3 units.

Dallas vs. San Fran O51 - Dallas will set a record for the most points given up this year. Their defense was terrible last year and it is worse this year. Fortunately for them, they have some weapons on offense so they will win a few shootouts. I don't think that will happen on Sunday but I don't feel like giving points on the road for San Fran. I do like them to run up quite a few points though as their offense has greatly improved this year while their defense has taken a step back. Both of these teams could score in the 30s on Sunday so let's take the Over 51 for 7 units.

Miami (+4) vs. New England - Will anyone challenge the Patriots for the division crown? I don't think so but I can see Miami giving them all they want on Sunday. QB Ryan Tannehill is maturing into a solid NFL quarterback. The Fins need a consistent running game to be successful. They added Knowshon Moreno in the off-season. I do think he will help in that aspect. The Patriot mystique inflates the line in every game of theirs. FYI, the Pats were 0-4 ATS last year as road favorites. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami win, but I'll settle for taking the points. Play Miami with the 4 points for 6 units.

Monday
San Diego (+3) at Arizona ad over 46 - Arizona finally broke through last year with a winning record though they missed the playoffs.They were relying on a better running game and a solid defense to get them over the hump this year. However, Darnell Dockett and The Honey Badger will miss the game and word on The Street is that Andre Ellington has a foot injury that will keep him out of the game. San Diego is looking forward to taking advantage of the situation and they have the offense that can do it with Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead. Points are for p*ssies in this tilt. Take the Chargers for 4 units at +145. With Arizona turning Carson Palmer loose, I can see this game getting into the low 50s, so let's play the O46 for 5 units.

Teaser of the Week (6-point 4-team). 3-to-1 odds.
  • Bears -0.5
  • Steelers -1
  • Cowboys Over 45
  • Bears Over 41

Survivor Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

NCAA Football Picks for Week 2

We are all dedicated to launching the MFS season so it has take a little time for me to settle in and start looking at lines. Beginning next week, I will be in a better position to get these out during the week. For NCAA week 2, there are a LOT of bad games on the slate and a few great matchups so we have a good chance to make some cash and enjoy some early showdowns that will help fuel the fire for Opening Sunday in the NFL. Love the dogs today!

Saturday 9/6

Ball St (+19) at Iowa – I like Iowa as a team this year but this is far too many points to spot to an underrated Ball St team. Ball State is money on the road as a dog (25-8-1 in their last 34 as road dogs) and Iowa does not cover well at home as favorites (3-10 in the last 13 as favorites). Iowa did not look like a team that is ready for the season when they almost lost to Northern Iowa last week and Ball St is the week before their local rivalry game versus Iowa State so let’s capitalize on the generous points. Play Ball St for 8 units in the first half at +11.5 and for 8 units in the game at +19.

Western Kentucky (+4.5) at Ilinois – The Illini barely escaped a weak Youngstown program last weekend and is ill prepared for the offensive powerhouse of Western Kentucky. Don’t laugh, these boys can put up points. Hilltopper QB, Brandon Doughty, is a seasoned veteran and is looking to go out in style. He started the season off right with 569 and 6 TDs through the air over Bowling Green last week. The Illini do not have the weapons to match up with this team and is due to be upset. Play WKU in the first half for 8 units at +2.5, take the 4.5 in the game for 5 units and put 3 units on the moneyline at +165.

Michigan (+4) at Notre Dame – It is rare that this game doesn’t come down to the wire and it is even rarer that the dog doesn’t cover and often win straight up. I love betting against the Irish in Week 2 after a dominating win cuz the line always gets over inflated. Due to my delay, we lost a few points on this game as the Sharps hit it right away when it opened at 6 and drove it down to 4. ND QB, Everett Golson, showed no rust in annihilating Rice last week….but it was Rice. He will have a much more difficult time against an underrated Wolverine defense. On top of that, Michigan has the better overall QB in Devin Gardner. When he tires, the Wolverines have a powerful backfield tandem of Derrick Green and De’Veon Smith. Settle in and enjoy this game with the points. I am playing 5 units on Michigan with the 4 points and 2 units on the moneyline at +155.

Michigan St (+13) at Oregon – Normally, when I see a line that shocks me because it is far off, either way, than I would have expected, I either stay away or flip my bet. It works out more times than you would expect. However, this is one of those times that I am sticking to my guns. I think the line is so high cuz the game is in Eugene and the Big Ten is disrespected as a conference. However, Michigan State is the one team that you can constantly count on year in and year out. With their starting linebacker out last New Years, they went to the Rose Bowl and solidly beat a top notch Stanford team that seems to have Oregon’s number. Sparty loves the underdog role, covering 10 of their last 12. Their defense is as solid as it gets, even after losing 6 players, and QB Connor Cook is quietly very efficient. Michigan State won’t beat themselves with turnovers and their defense and running game, with Nick Hill, will control tempo. I would not be surprised to see Sparty win straight up. However, I will take the generous 13 points for 10 units and enjoy this game with a few cold ones tonight.


2013 Regular Season record:
ATS: 55-36-1 +132.9 units
Totals: 13-13 -2.9 units
Moneyline: 4-3 +3.65 units
Parlay: 0-4  -8.0 units

Thursday, August 28, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, I am always amused when people start producing mock drafts well in advance of Labor Day weekend. There are too many unknowns due to injuries, position battles and stupidity to make them worthwhile. I suppose if you are in a league that mandates that you draft weeks before the season starts, it makes sense but, even that cracks me up. If it is a league for fun, go crazy. However, most of us have a vested financial interest in how our team does and I sure as hell don’t want any of my top picks missing time due to non-regular season injury or off-the-field issue. It is pretty interesting to see the shift in average draft position in the weeks leading up to the season. Players like Steven Ridley and Cam Newton have cratered and players like James White and Emmanuel Sanders have shot up.

Mock drafts can vary greatly depending on the scoring system, especially when using Points Per Reception, and whether or not the league is a redraft league or a dynasty league. For our purposes, this is a standard fantasy football league scoring system for a redraft league.
This assumes a starting roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. Points would be awarded for the following actions:
  • Passing: 1 point for every 25 yards, 4 points for each Touchdown, and -2 for each Interception
  • Rushing: 1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for each Touchdown, and -2 for each fumble lost
  • Receiving: 1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for each Touchdown
  • Kicking: 3 points for every Field Goal made and 1 point for each successful Extra Point
  • Defense: 2 points for each fumble recovered, 2 points for each interception, 1 point for each sack, 2 points for a shutout and 2 points for a safety

Round 1
1 Jamaal Charles, KC
2 LeSean McCoy, PHI
3 Adrian Peterson, MIN
4 Eddie Lacy, GB
5 Matt Forte, CHI
6 Jimmy Graham, NO
7 Marshawn Lynch, SEA
8 Calvin Johnson, DET
9 Demaryius Thomas, DEN
10 Montee Ball, DEN
11 A.J. Green, CIN
12 Peyton Manning, DEN

Evaluation: Having one of the top 5 picks is easy since you could make a case for any of those running backs. After that, it is a bit sketchy as there is great depth at tight end and quarterback this year. It is nice to think about a team with Jimmy Graham or Peyton Manning on it, but I would prefer a running back to start my team off and build around.

Round 2
13 DeMarco Murray, DAL
14 Brandon Marshall, CHI
15 Dez Bryant, DAL
16 Andre Ellington, ARI
17 Zac Stacy, STL
18 Drew Brees, NO
19 Giovani Bernard, CIN
20 Alshon Jeffery, CHI
21 Doug Martin, TB
22 Le'Veon Bell, PIT
23 Aaron Rodgers, GB
24 Ryan Mathews, SD

Evaluation: Decision time in round 2. Should you go traditional and get a second RB or is it best to get one good RB and one good WR? I think that there is great depth at WR this year and recommend that you get 2 solid RBs.  

Round 3
25 Julio Jones, ATL
26 Jordy Nelson, GB
27 Antonio Brown, PIT
28 Randall Cobb, GB
29 Alfred Morris, WAS
30 Arian Foster, HOU
31 Julius Thomas, DEN
32 Andrew Luck, IND
33 Rashad Jennings, NYG
34 Toby Gerhart, JAC
35 Victor Cruz, NYG
36 Reggie Bush, DET

Evaluation: If you grabbed two RBs already, you definitely need to grab a WR in round 3.  If you split them, I recommend grabbing that second RB. If you grabbed Peyton, Brees or Rodgers, you need to balance out your team in this round as the tiers begin to fall off from here.

Round 4
37 Vincent Jackson, TB
38 Rob Gronkowski, NE
39 Andre Johnson, HOU
40 Matthew Stafford, DET
41 Keenan Allen, SD
42 Frank Gore, SF
43 DeSean Jackson, WAS
44 Michael Floyd, ARI
45 Pierre Garcon, WAS
46 Roddy White, ATL
47 Chris Johnson, NYJ
48 T.Y. Hilton, IND

Evaluation: Questions abound in round 4 due to direct or indirect health issues. Stafford should have a big year, but I really like Kennan Allen at this spot.

Round 5
49 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
50 Ben Tate, CLE
51 Torrey Smith, BAL
52 Steven Jackson, ATL
53 C.J. Spiller, BUF
54 Jordan Cameron, CLE
55 Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
56 Reggie Wayne, IND
57 Fred Jackson, BUF
58 Shane Vereen, NE
59 Marques Colston, NO
60 Percy Harvin, SEA

Evaluation: If you thought round 4 was tough, round 5 is even more difficult. There are a handful of players with very high upside here, such as Cordarrelle and C.J., but I like Cameron quite a bit since Cleveland has the absolute worst WRs ever lined up in professional football.

Round 6
61 Julian Edelman, NE
62 Jeremy Maclin, PHI
63 Eric Decker, NYJ
64 Colin Kaepernick, SF
65 Vernon Davis, SF
66 Wes Welker, DEN
67 Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
68 Trent Richardson, IND
69 Tom Brady, NE
70 Joique Bell, DET
71 Golden Tate, DET
72 Bishop Sankey, TEN

Evaluation: Tom Brady in round 6? It has been a long time since we have seen anything resembling this. I still think I would pass and grab Ryan, Rivers or Cutler in one of the next 3 rounds. I like Sanders if I want a WR here or Bell if I want a RB. He had great numbers last year, even in a split role. That role should continue this year with him getting the red zone work. Plus, Reggie isn’t Mr. Durability.

Round 7
73 Matt Ryan, ATL
74 Jason Witten, DAL
75 Mike Wallace, MIA
76 Kendall Wright, TEN
77 Terrance Williams, DAL
78 Michael Crabtree, SF
79 Ray Rice, BAL
80 Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK
81 Knowshon Moreno, MIA
82 Riley Cooper, PHI
83 Darren McFadden, OAK
84 Nick Foles, PHI

Evaluation: There is a lot of value in this round. I like Mike Wallace to have a solid year with Tannehill growing into his position. Matty Ice has his weapons back. Moreno should assume the #1 RB spot within a few weeks. Cooper, Williams and Wright will all have solid numbers. Enjoy this round as it won’t be this easy for a few rounds.

Round 8
85 Sammy Watkins, BUF
86 Russell Wilson, SEA
87 Stevan Ridley, NE
88 Pierre Thomas, NO
89 Tony Romo, DAL
90 Lamar Miller, MIA
91 Cam Newton, CAR
92 Brandin Cooks, NO
93 Cecil Shorts, JAC
94 Philip Rivers, SD
95 Dwayne Bowe, KC
96 Terrance West, CLE

Evaluation: LOADS of questionable picks here. If you need a QB, Rivers is a must-pick now. I trust Cooks and West as rookies more than Watkins but I would leave Cam and Ridley alone here. Bowe could be a value pick here since KC has no receivers past him.

Round 9
97 Dennis Pitta, BAL
98 Carlos Hyde, SF
99 DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
100 Kyle Rudolph, MIN
101 Jay Cutler, CHI
102 Robert Griffin III, WAS
103 Shonn Greene, TEN
104 Bernard Pierce, BAL
105 Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
106 Greg Olsen, CAR
107 Darren Sproles, PHI
108 Anquan Boldin, SF

Evaluation: This round is a mixture of good and bad. The ceiling on Cutler is sky-high this season but the threat of injury is always sky high with him. Kyle Rudolph should be a solid pick now as is Olsen. Lots of upside with Benjamin, Pitta and Hopkins.

Round 10
109 Jordan Reed, WAS
110 Jeremy Hill, CIN
111 DeAngelo Williams, CAR
112 Danny Woodhead, SD
113 Hakeem Nicks, IND
114 Justin Hunter, TEN
115 James White, NE
116 Martellus Bennett, CHI
117 Mark Ingram, NO
118 Danny Amendola, NE
119 James Jones, OAK
120 Jonathan Stewart, CAR

Evaluation: I have been fooled by Stewart, Amendola and Nicks enough to stay away. There is a lot of value in Hunter, White, Jones and Ingram in this round. Hill should see a nice split of action with Bernard as will Reed and Bennett on teams with lots of other options.

Round 11
121 Greg Jennings, MIN
122 Christine Michael, SEA
123 Marqise Lee, JAC
124 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
125 Zach Ertz, PHI
126 Tre Mason, STL
127 Jordan Matthews, PHI
128 Mike Evans, TB
129 Markus Wheaton, PIT
130 Donald Brown, SD
131 LeGarrette Blount, PIT
132 Steve Smith, BAL

Evaluation: Just when you would expect to be dragging the bottom of the barrel, you will find happiness in a lot of WR options here. This round epitomizes why I stressed a run on RBs early. Lee and Matthews could end up being the primary receiving options on their respective teams. Wheaton, Smith and Evans may also put up significant numbers as should Ertz at the TE position.

Round 12
133 Devonta Freeman, ATL
134 Ladarius Green, SD
135 Andy Dalton, CIN
136 Andre Williams, NYG
137 James Starks, GB
138 Knile Davis, KC
139 Khiry Robinson, NO
140 Rueben Randle, NYG
141 C.J. Anderson, DEN
142 Carson Palmer, ARI
143 Tavon Austin, STL
144 Seattle Seahawks D/ST

Evaluation: Hello Handcuffs! It is always a good idea to back up your studs RBs if they have talented backups. That is the majority of this round. There is always one team that considers themselves smart by choosing the top defense before the inevitable late run. I suppose I can support that over a backup QB.

Round 13
145 Brandon LaFell, NE
146 Josh McCown, TB
147 Ronnie Hillman, DEN
148 Doug Baldwin, SEA
149 Joe Flacco, BAL
150 Jerricho Cotchery, CAR
151 Charles Clay, MIA
152 Kenny Stills, NO
153 Mike James, TB
154 Mike Williams, BUF
164 San Francisco 49ers D/ST
155 Ahmad Bradshaw, IND
156 Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Evaluation: As mentioned in Round 11, you can find solid receiving options in these late rounds. The Patriots have no set number 1 WR and LaFell could easily assume that role. Carolina is starting fresh at WR and Cotchery has the most seniority. Seattle showed that they believe in Baldwin by giving him a contract to earn and Stills showed decent rapport with Brees last season, but you can’t expect consistent production from him.   

Round 14
157 Brian Hartline, MIA
158 Mohamed Sanu, CIN
159 Andrew Hawkins, CLE
160 Kenbrell Thompkins, NE
161 Carolina Panthers D/ST
162 Denver Broncos D/ST
163 Lance Dunbar, DAL
165 Antonio Gates, SD
166 Dwayne Allen, IND
167 Robert Woods, BUF
168 Michael Vick, NYJ

Evaluation: Bottom of the barrel, we find ye here. Hartline, Thompkins and Hawkins are well worth a flier here if you have room for an extra WR. Other than that grab a backup or think about dipping into the pool of defenses.

Round 15
169 Stephen Gostkowski, NE
170 New England Patriots D/ST
171 Houston Texans D/ST
172 Cincinnati Bengals D/ST
173 Arizona Cardinals D/ST
174 Dri Archer, PIT
175 Matt Bryant, ATL
176 Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST
177 Buffalo Bills D/ST
178 Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
179 Justin Tucker, BAL
180 St. Louis Rams D/ST

Evaluation: Get a defense. They are pretty thin this year.

Round 16
181 Steven Hauschka, SEA
182 Chris Ivory, NYJ
183 Mason Crosby, GB
184 Phil Dawson, SF
185 Adam Vinatieri, IND
186 Baltimore Ravens D/ST
187 Nick Folk, NYJ
188 Robbie Gould, CHI
189 Dan Bailey, DAL
190 Greg Zuerlein, STL
191 Nate Freese, DET
192 Nick Novak, SD

Evaluation: Get a kicker. You need to start one.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

2014 NFL Win-Loss Projections

With so much parity in the NFL nowadays, it is pretty difficult to accurately project a full season of games, not to mention the unknown factor of numerous key injuries. However, we love betting on NFL Futures so we forge ahead. We wager throughout the season so we will adjust our opinion of teams weekly, even it it goes against some of our projections. In the end, we always end up winning more on our Futures than losing, which is the ultimate goal. When it comes to wagering, we always recommend to have multiple locations to get your lines since lines, particularly with Futures, can vary quite a bit from place-to-place so get the best number you can. When reviewing our numbers, you’ll see that we expect no happiness in the New York market until hockey season, Johnny Football not being able to save the Mistake By The Lake, joy in the midwest as the Colts and the Bears have victorious years and the Rams to toil in misery – actually, when looking at their schedule, Bradford would not have been much help. It is a brutal line-up of games for them.


East Bill Book
East Bill Book
New England 11 11
Philly 9 9
Miami 7 7.5
Wash 7 7.5
Buffalo 6 7
Dallas 7 7.5
NY Jets 5 7
NY Giants 6 8







North


North

Baltimore 9 8.5
GB 11 10.5
Pittsburgh 9 8.5
Chicago 10 8.5
Cincy 9 9
Detroit 8 8.5
Cleveland 5 6.5
Minny 5 6







South


South

Indy 11 9.5
NO 11 10
Tenn 8 7
Atlanta 9 8.5
Houston 7 8
Carolina 7 8
Jax 5 5
TB 6 7







West


West

Denver 12 11.5
Seattle 12 11
KC 8 8
SF 11 10.5
San Diego 8 8
Arizona 8 7
Oakland 5 4
St. Louis 4 6


AFC Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Indy, Denver
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
AFC Championship game: Denver over New England

NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Wildcards: San Fran, Chicago
NFC Championship game: San Fran over Seattle

Super Bowl Champs: San Fran