Wednesday, November 19, 2014

NFL Week 12 Rankings and Picks

Weather begins to play a big factor in NFL games when it comes to wagering and setting fantasy lineups. While we don’t expect this current spate of bad weather to be the norm, make sure that you are taking it into account going forward. Dome games become much more enticing, especially for Daily/Weekly fantasy lineups. I am tweaking these ranking a bit to align with our current contests; Daily Best Team and Daily Touchdown Only contests.

Top rankings for Best team (in order)
QB: Luck, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Ryan, Brees, Kaepernick
RB: Charles, Murray, Lacy, McCoy, Forte, Foster, Ingram
WR: D. Thomas, Bryant, Nelson, Evans, Marshall, Gordon, Maclin, Hilton, Jeffery, J. Jones, T. Smith (Bal), Cobb, Beckham Jr
TE: Gronk, Graham, Gates, Kelce, Donnell, Bennett
K: Vinatieri, Tucker, Bryant, Zuerlein, Goskowski, Bullock, Dawson
D: Kansas City, St. Louis, Philly, San Fran, Seattle, Dallas, Houston

Sleepers for Best team (in order)
QB: Hoyer, Flacco, McCown, Sanchez
RB: D. Robinson, Tre Mason, Isaiah Crowell, Charles Sims
WR: Britt, Shorts III, Wayne, Hawkins, Landry
TE: Fleener, Rivera, Lewis, Cook

Top rankings for TD Only (in order)
QB: Luck, Rodgers, Ryan, Manning, Brady, Brees, Kaepernick
RB: Charles, Lacy, Murray, Foster, Ingram, McCoy, Forte
WR: D. Thomas, Bryant, Nelson, Evans, Marshall, Gordon, J. Jones, Maclin, Hilton, Jeffery, T. Smith (Bal), Cobb, Beckham Jr
TE: Gronk, Graham, Donnell, Gates, Kelce, Bennett
D: Kansas City, Houston, Philly, St. Louis, San Fran, Seattle, Dallas

Sleepers for TD Only (in order)
QB: Flacco, McCown, Hoyer, Sanchez
RB: Isaiah Crowell, D. Robinson, Tre Mason, Chris Ivory, Joique Bell, Jonas Gray
WR: Britt, Shorts III, Landry, Wayne, Hawkins
TE: Rivera, Lewis, Cook, Fleener

Aside from believing too much in the road-sad Steelers AGAIN, week 11 was a good week for us as we cashed every other play but the Game Over in Chicago. We are getting pretty picky on these games as the oddsmakers have put the numbers right on for many of them.

Sunday:

New England vs. Detroit U48 – the Patriots have been rolling nicely along but it has been against far inferior defenses. The Lions come into town sporting one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. That unit is solely responsible for the success of the team this year by holding all opponents in check, including completely shutting Aaron Rodgers down. Offensively, they have sputtered all year and have not improved with Megatron back, which will hold true again this week as he visits Revis Island. Play the Under 24 in the first half for 7 units and the Under 48 in the game for 7 units.

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville O50.5 – there may be 100 passes thrown in this game as Indy launches 50 since it has no running game and Jax launches 50 while playing catch-up all game. The Jags will be able to score on Indy, not near enough, but they will score. This game should be an easy Over so play the Colts over the team total of 31.5 for 7 units and the Over of 50.5 in the game for 7 units.

Tampa +5.5 at Chicago – the story about this game is how the defense departed Chicago when Lovie left. Granted, it was not good enough to tout at the time, but Coach Trestman would sure love to have that defense back versus what he is saddled with currently. Josh McCown bears no ill will again his former employer but would like to showcase himself to the legion of Bears fans who would have preferred to see him under center this season and the Cutler millions spent improving the defense. With WR Mike Evans dominating the playing field, he should achieve that. Tampa doesn't win up north when the temps drop below 40…game time temp is expected to be 47. I think the Bucs walk away with a win. Play Tampa at +3 in the first half for 7 units, at +5.5 for the game at 7 units and place 2 units on the moneyline at +205.

St. Louis +4.5 at San Diego – the wrong team is favored here. The Rams are playing better ball right now than the Chargers did at any point in the season. I am not sure if the oddsmakers are thinking that the general public is expecting the Rams to be discovered as frauds or not when setting this line. After beating the Seahawks, Niners, and Broncos, I am not fooled. This team is good…even better with Shaun Hill under center. San Diego has completely underwhelmed for the past month and has gotten by due to eeking past the Raiders twice. I think the Rams win this game outright. Play St. Louis in the first half at +2.5 for 10 units, in the game at +4.5 for 10 units and place 4 units on the moneyline at +190.

Dallas -3 at New York Giants – I hate giving points on the road in divisional games, but it is hard not to take the Cowboys. They are coming off a Bye, are playing the talent-less Giants and are playing in November (Romo is 27-6 in November). The Giants haven’t covered since September so why expect it now. Play the Cowboys in the game minus the field goal for 8 units.

6-point Teaser Of The Week (7-to-1 odds) for 1 units
  • KC -1
  • Philly -5
  • Tampa +11.5
  • Rams +10.5
  • Pats -1
  • Niners -2.5

Season record
  • Sides   23-25  (-50.9 units)
  • Overs   17-11 (+38.1 units)
  • Parlay   1-7  (-8.8 units)
  • Teaser   1-9 (-3.0 units)
  • Moneyline 4-4  (+8.6 units)

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Feeling Foolish?

Lots of owners were Sunday night when Jonas Gray went off for 199 yards and 4 TDs. He was started in 2% of MFS leagues and those were by desperate owners, at the time. As a matter of fact, many owners actually dumped Gray after watching Shane Vereen get most of the work against Denver. This was reminiscent of actions by Ben Roethlisberger owners prior to his first 6-TD game. The streak of 6-TD passing weeks came to an end this past week, though Aaron Rodgers could have repeated if his defense and special teams quit scoring. I guess the new streak is 5-INT games. There is a good chance that we could see The Elite One repeat that effort again this coming week.

Other Notes from Week 11:
  • Speaking of Jonas Gray, he had half of Sunday's overall rushing TDs. Those would be some extremely long odds.
  • Arizona keeps on winning. You have to admire the script that they are writing – much more than the script for Interstellar which I saw over the weekend. Horrible, just horrible. I give it as many stars as the Giants have on their team; one (Odell Beckham Jr.)
  • I see where AP is now suspended for the remainder of the year. The way the NFL makes up the rules regarding personal conduct penalties is a joke. I have a bad feeling that this will lead to some ugly sessions during the next Collective Bargaining Agreement sessions.
  • Starting a Cleveland running back is definitely a crapshoot. I suppose the smartest thing to do is to find out who is listed as the number 3 back for the week and start him.
  • Don't forget about our Crowdfunding campaign!
With a new spate of injuries, the waiver wire will be busy again this week, Jonas Gray aside.

QB: Ryan Mallett (Hou) – RGIII owners have to be looking elsewhere for a QB. Houston will rely heavily on their ground game, but, with DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson as wideouts, it is not hard to envision Mallett being a good starter in the right matchups, like this weekend, especially if you overlooked our recommendations on Drew Stanton and Josh McCown from last week and they are gone.

RB: Bryce Brown (BUF) – with Fred Jackson struggling to get healthy, Brown is seeing the bulk of the workload. He does have a tough matchup versus the Jets this weekend but he does catch enough passes to be useful if you need a starter.

RB: C.J. Anderson (DEN) – Anderson makes a repeat visit here from last week. Many thought that he could be a one-week fill-in with Montee Ball returning, but Ball re-injured his groin last weekend and is reportedly out another 2-3 weeks. Anderson didn't get much ground work last week, but he factored heavily into the passing game.

RB: Dan Herron (IND) – Ahmad Bradshaw might be done for the regular season so Herron’s outlook looks a little brighter. The Colts keep trying to salvage their wasted pick on Trent Richardson by continuing to give him the ball, but, for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, they really need a better running game. Wisdom sez to get Herron into the gameplan. Pick him up in case they see the light.

WR: Kenny Britt (STL) – the Rams have been decimated by injuries under center and at wideout the past few years. After a long bout of injuries himself, Britt seems to be healthy. With strong-armed Shaun Hill under center, Britt becomes more of a deep-ball threat. He may not rack up loads of catches but he is considered the Rams’ number 1 receiver right now.

WR: Wes Welker (Den) – sure, Welker has been a bust this year and is a head-shake away from another concussion, but it is doubtful that Emmanuel Sanders can count the number of fingers on his right hand yet after that shot he took from Rodney McLeod in St. Louis last week. With Julius Thomas banged up and Welker’s original team in town, he becomes a sneaky play this week and he is found on the majority of waiver wires.

TE: Coby Fleener (Ind) – Fleener turned back the clock last weekend and reminded Andrew Luck of the success that they had together in college at Stanford. It helped that TE Dwayne Allen sprained his ankle, but Fleener becomes a must-add for Allen or Thomas owners. His 7/144/0 day shows what he can do on a pass-first team.

TE Jacob Tamme (Den) – it is the week for QB-TE relationships. If Thomas is out this week, Tamme steps into his place and has long-term familiarity with Manning going back a to their Colts years.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

NFL Week 11 Rankings and Picks

I am adding a feature to supplement our Weekly and Daily fantasy football leagues for players to target in addition to the NFL wagering picks this week.

Level 1 (Must have players)
QB: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck
RB: Matt Forte, Mark Ingram, Le'Veon Bell
WR: Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas
TE: Mark Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas
D: Detroit, Miami, San Fran

Level 2 (Players that follow if Level 1 is out)
QB: Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan
RB: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch
WR: Antonio Brown, Kelvin Benjamin, Randall Cobb
TE: Greg Olsen, Antonio Gates, Travis Kelce
D: Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Kansas City

Sleepers
QB: Mark Sanchez, Josh McCown
RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, Frank Gore
WR: Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks
TE: Kyle Rudolph, Brett Celek
D: New Orleans, Atlanta

Sunday games:
Chicago vs. Minnesota O46 - this matchup has been a high scoring one over the years, even when good defenses were involved. We know that is not the case with the Bears this year. However, I expect the Bears to get into the end zone a bit more frequently than they did in New England and Green Bay. They will continue to have issues stopping the opponent from scoring so the Over becomes an easy play for us here. Pay the Over 23 in the first half for 7 units and over 46 in the game for 7 units.

Green Bay -5.5 vs. Philly - Mark Sanchez looked good last week but he faced a depleted Panthers defense. Green Bay has been playing much better on D, especially against the pass. If LeSean McCoy can't get going on Sunday, this game will get away from them early. Aaron Rodgers is seeing the game in slow motion and will pick apart Philly's D. Play the Pack in the first half for 7 units at -3 and in the game for 7 units at -5.5.

New England ML at Indy O57.5 - Indy has been exposed on defense by good passing teams. I know the dome is a tough place to visit, but, give me the Pats under Belichick as a dog after a Bye week any time. This is an extremely high total, but, weather is not a factor and these teams have too many weapons to not expect a shootout. Play the Pats in the first half for 7 units at +1.5 and forget the points in the game. Play the moneyline for 6 units at +135. I also like the Over 57.5 for 6 units in the game.

Pittsburgh -6 at Tennessee - I expect the Steelers to bounce back after laying an egg in New York to roll over an overmatched divisional foe. The Titans cannot score or play much defense. As long as Ben regains the touch he had before the Jets surprised him, this will be a blowout. Play the Steelers in the first half at -3 for 10 units and in the game for 10 units at -6.
 
6-point Teaser Of The Week (7-to-1 odds) for 1 units
  • Miami Pick
  • Bears/Vikes O40
  • Atlanta +7.5
  • New Orleans -1
  • Green Bay Pick
  • Pitt Pick
 
Season record
  • Sides   20-23  (-49.9 units)
  • Overs    15-10 (+32.8 units)
  • Parlay   1-7  (-8.8 units)
  • Teaser   1-8 (-2.0 units)
  • Moneyline 3-4  (+1.5 units)

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Time To Make A Move

We are now into double digit week numbers for the NFL season, which means that fantasy football playoffs are approaching quickly. Those teams hovering at .500, or just under, better make some last ditch effort to make the playoffs. Don’t hesitate to trade a stud, especially at QB, to solidify multiple positions. Trading Peyton, Luck or Brady for a top RB and WR could be just the move that gets you into the post-season mix. QBs are the easiest position to replace, especially now that you are seeing a lot of turnover. Two words that everyone expected to be uttered this season when it came to who will be your Fantasy savior; “Mark Sanchez”!!!!

Week 10 saw a lot of easy fantasy wins turn into losses with the last two games of the week. I personally saw a 50+ point lead evaporate to my Packers fan fantasy opponent who had Aaron Rodgers (and only needed him for a 6-TD 315 yd half), Mason Crosby (who got two FGs when they were already up a gazillion points) and the Green Bay D. Other wins were snatched away by a late long TD to Kelvin Benjamin at the end of MNF and a steady diet of sacks on Cam. Garbage time points for QBs, WRs and Defenses can really turn a fantasy matchup. Of course, they are spotlighted when they come on SNF and MNF.

Other notes from Week 10:
  • Jordy Nelson has 259 receiving yards and 2 TDs in 6 quarters against the Bears this season.
  • Chicago has given up 106 points in its past two games, including being outscored 80-7 in the first half of those games. Hard to believe that the fan base was upset at the quality of their play in the second half of games early in the season.
  • The Jets seem to play their best games against the best teams. Too bad they play a lot of bad teams each year. With the up-and-down NFL, it seems fitting that the hottest QB in the league would completely cool off against the league’s worst pass defense, right?
  • How could no team have given Justin Forsett a longer-term look in the past? Enough teams have had him on their roster.
  • Welcome back, Megatron, we missed you!
  • Seattle had 350 yards rushing….THREE HUNDRED FIFTY! I guess Pete Carroll went back to college and channeled his inner Tom Osborne.
  • What happens to the Saints’ DBs at the end of the game where their only concern should be to NOT let a WR get behind them (See Tampa game and San Fran game)? Has one division ever been so talented and so bad? Remember how bad the NFC West was a few years ago when no one was above .500? Somehow, Atlanta could be in first place in the NFC South after not winning a game prior to last week since 9/18.
  • Many Fantasy team owners, bettors and Survivor Pool participants were treated generously by Arizona’s D last Sunday in the 4th quarter with back-to-back Pick-6s to beat St. Louis going away. That was a huge pick-me-up for a team that knew it just lost its starting QB for the season, though the Stanton-to-Brown scoring bomb may have been more important.
  • Remember to check out our Crowdfunding campaign on Indiegogo.
If you can’t pull off a big trade, you can always look at the waiver wire for some help. Don’t be afraid to cut some high-priced dead weight on your team hen dropping a player to make room.

QB: Drew Stanton (AZ) – Stanton can seamlessly step into action under center for the rest of the year for the Cardinals since he has 3+ games already under his belt with Palmer on the sidelines. With loads of talent at the offensive skill positions, Stanton can make a nice starter in the proper matchups if you currently own Palmer or Cam as your starter.

QB: Josh McCown (TB) – McCown is back under center in Tampa and returns at a time when the team is better suited offensively with WR Mike Evans now a threat. Their running game is still suspect, but I expect good numbers out of McCown going forward. Once again, a solid play with proper matchups. I prefer him this week to Stanton with a game against the Redskins versus Stanton matching up against the Lions.

RB: Terrance West (CLE) – it is hard to trust the RBBC approach of the Browns, but West is still the best RB out of that trio and it shows in the pct of plays he is involved in over Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell. Finding any quality RBs now on the waiver wire in 10+ team leagues is rare so grab him if you can.

RB: C.J. Anderson (DEN) – Much like many other teams, Denver’s backfield is a crapshoot. A few weeks ago, it appeared that Juwan Thompson would be next in line for carries after Ronnie Hillman but that all changed last week when Ronnie Hillman’s ankle knocked him out of action. After a game with 163 total yards and a TD on 17 touches, I would expect him to see the majority of action this weekend, but don’t be shocked if it goes to Thompson or even Ball. It is worth the risk if you need an RB though.

WR: Jordan Matthews (PHL) – Matthews was just an underutilized rookie receiver until last week. The Riley Cooper fad officially died and Matthews is VERY happy with Mark Sanchez under center. With a stat line of 7/138/2, he needs to be owned!

WR: Cecil Shorts (JAX) – Though he is off this week, pick up Shorts if you have roster space and need WR depth. He is finally healthy and the other Jags’ receivers are dinged up, including Allen Robinson out for the year.

TE: Mychal Rivera (OAK) – Rivera is an official Must Add now. He has gone for 21/185/3 over his past 3 games, even if a bunch of it was in garbage time. With this team, 60 minutes is garbage time. The Charges are tough on tight ends so temper your expectations for this week, but get him if you need help.

TE: Kyle Rudolph (MINN) – Rudolph is finally going to be activated. He has spent almost the whole season on the waiver wire and is coming off at a good time. The Bears’ D is a wreck, especially across the middle of the field. There is a good chance that he makes an immediate impact.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Free NFL Week 10 Picks

Week 9 was a very nice week for us as our Totals paid off handsomely and really didn’t have to sweat out any of the games we won! We did miss GREATLY with our San Diego pick, but it still only counts as one loss. Per the norm, we can’t count on this being a streak as the NFL is a crazy league where teams flip constantly. We just need to recognize when that is coming. No way we can predict all flips, but we can live with a flop or two if we continue to pick more winners than losers. For this week:

Detroit vs. Miami +1.5 and Under 22 1H - Miami is playing the bst defense in the NFL right now. Detroit is coming off a Bye week and gets two of their playmakers back. They do have a solid defense of their own as well and the crowd should be pumped up for their division-leading Lions. I see this game starting off as a slow chess match as the Lions try to regain some rhythm. The Lions have been a second half team all year so I am going to just play the first half in this game. I may opt for a second half wager after watching the first half unfold. Play Miami in the first half at +1.5 for 6 units and U22 for 6 units as well as a 2-unit parlay on Miami and the Under.

New Orleans -4.5 vs. San Francisco - Let’s see….San Fran can’t score consistently, has a beat up defense, is bickering and has to go to the worst venue for visitors. Under Sean Payton, the Saints simply do not lose at home and it is very, very rare that they are not covering while winning constantly at home. With Mark Ingram running like a man looking to get paid and Jimmy Graham trying to keep up with Gronk, the Saints will put more points on the board than San Fran can keep up with. Play the Saints in the first half for 10 units at -2.5 and for 10 units in the game at -4.5

Baltimore -9 vs. Tennessee - Tennessee has been held to 17 or less in every game but one this year and visits a Ravens defense that is licking its wounds after getting torched by their biggest rival. I fully expect them to take vengeance on a weak Titan team and blow them out, which is why I have no problem giving this many points when backing anyone but the Patriots and Broncos. Play the Ravens at -6 in the first half for 10 units and in the game at -9 for 10 units.

Pittsburgh -4.5 at New York Jets - the only reason that I am not cashing out my 401K to play this game is that I do not understand why the Steelers are not a TD or more favorites. I know Troy Polamalu is out, but the Steelers currently have the most potent passing offense in the NFL and the Jets have the worst pass defense. I really can’t see why the Steelers won’t cover in double digits. Play the Steelers in the first half at -2.5 for 8 units and in the game at -4.5 for 20 units (I always buy the hook on -4.5, btw).

Oakland vs. Denver Over 49 - Peyton always puts up stellar numbers after what he deems is a poor effort on his part, so expect him to tear apart the Raiders defense. While the Broncos may cover the Over in this game by themselves, the Raiders are a spunky bunch that fights until the end so I can see them doing enough to help this game easily go Over. Play the Over 49 in this game for 10 units.

Arizona -7 vs. St. Louis - The Cardinals are on a roll and seem to be immune to a letdown. They have a solid running game with Ellington and a passing attack that gets a little better with each week that Carson Palmer starts. They just need to stay healthy. Oh yeah, their defense is top notch, especially against a team that doesn’t run or pass the ball very well. Kudos to the Rams’ D for playing so well, but this Cardinals team is better than the Niners by a long shot. Play the Cardinals minus a TD in this game for 7 units.

Green Bay -7 vs. Chicago - Both teams needed the Bye week that they are coming off of in a big way; the Pack to allow Aaron Rodgers’ hammy to heal up and the Bears to try and figure out where it all went wrong. After the Bye week, the Bears are still searching for their answer. The Packers and Rodgers own them, even when they are playing well. Unless the Ouija Board movie brought back the 1985 Bears D, this game will be another victory for the Packers. Losing like they did in New Orleans in Week 8 is nothing that bothered the Packers. They have to be happy that Chicago was the first team that they faced coming out of the Bye. Play the Packers minus a TD in this game for 7 units.


6-point Teaser Of The Week (7-to-1 odds) for 1 units
  • Buffalo +8
  • New Orleans +1.5
  • Baltimore -3
  • Denver -5
  • Green Bay -1
  • Pitt +1.5

Season record
  • Sides   16-18  (-24.5 units)
  • Overs    13-10 (+16.8 units)
  • Parlay   1-6  (-6.8 units)
  • Teaser   1-7 (-1.0 units)
  • Moneyline 3-4  (+1.5 units)

Free NCAA Week 11 Picks

Wednesday
Ball St +1.5 vs. N. Illinois 1H  6 units
Ball St +3 vs. N. Illinois Game  6 units
Ball St ML vs. N. Illinois Game +135  2 units

Saturday
Duke -1.5 at Syracuse 1H 8 units
Duke -3 at Syracuse Game 8 units
Boston College +1.5 vs. Louisville 1H 7 units
Boston College +3 vs. Louisville Game 7 units
Boston College ML vs. Louisville +135  2 units
Houston -9.5 vs. Tulane 1H 6 units
Houston -17 vs. Tulane Game 6 units
Rice -6 vs. Texas-San Antonio 1H 7 units
Rice -10 vs. Texas-San Antonio Game 7 units
Texas vs. W. Virginia U26 1H 7 units
Texas vs. W. Virginia U52 Game 7 units
Utah +4 vs. Oregon 1H 10 units
Utah +8 vs. Oregon Game 6 units
Utah U30 vs. Oregon 1H  10 units
Utah U60 vs. Oregon Game 10 units

2014 Regular Season record:
ATS: 27-31 -46.3 units
Totals: 2-2 -11.1 units
Moneyline: 1-3 -4.1 units
Parlay: 0-2  -2.0 units

Monday, November 3, 2014

Just Past NFL Midseason Awards

We are almost through the Bye Season and are into the second half of the season. Let’s take a look back at how the first half of the season has unfolded while handing out a few First Half awards.

Best Team: Arizona. This is NFL Karma since they won 10 games last year and didn’t make the playoffs. They have a nice mix of talented offensive players and a solid defense. They may surprisingly clinch their division before any other team. Runner-up: New England. After being written off after their shellacking at Kansas City, no team has looked more dominant.

Worst Team: Oakland. The Raiders have had some close losses (3 to San Diego, a TD to New England,..) but they have a very, very good chance of going 0-16. Runner-up: New York Jets. The Jets are the worst team in the NFL but get runner-up status by virtue of beating Oakland.

MVP: DeMarco Murray, hands down. It took a Romo-less effort against a solid Arizona run defense to stop his streak of 100+ rushing yard games. Runner-Up: Andrew Luck.

LVP: LeSean McCoy. Always be leery when a RB comes off of a big season and start spouting off about a 2000+ yard year coming. LeSean has a whopping 1 TD and half of the yards of Murray. Runner-up: Megatron, though he gets a pass due to injury so we will give it to Brandon Marshall since most of his points have come in one game.

Surprise Team (good): Cleveland. Sure, it helps to have games against Tampa, Tennessee (amazing comeback), and Oakland, but they did beat some quality teams. The most surprising thing is that they didn’t throw Johnny Football in while they were down over 20 points to Tennessee or after they lost to Jacksonville. However, I am not sure we won’t see him in the second half as Cleveland may not win another game. Runner-up: Dallas. They have 5 of their last 7 on the road and will find it difficult to keep their magic rolling.

Surprise Team (bad): Chicago. They lost a few games that they shouldn’t have and they won a few games that they shouldn’t have, but their D is terrible and their offense is bickering. Their Bye came at a good time but they go to Green Bay when they come out of it. They need to treat that game as a playoff game. Their schedule in the second half sets up nicely, but they may be too dysfunctional to take advantage of it. Runner-up: Atlanta. We gave them a pass last year with all of their injuries. Now, they are beat up again this year, but we now know that they are not a good football team….we just didn’t want to believe it at the start of the year.

Best Reason To Handcuff: Matt Asiata. Getting a handcuff for your studs is always recommended, no matter why it kicks in. If you had AP, Asiata went into the year as the backup to have. He immediately produced 47 points in his first 3 games. Granted, he did fall off after Jerick McKinnon emerged, but Asiata did carry a few owners over a tough period where the realization that AP was going to miss the rest of the season was sinking in. Runner-up: Chris Ivory (this should have been obvious with Chris Johnson being a yearly bust).

Wasted Fantasy Performance: Ben Roethlisberger in Week 8. Far too many owners dropped Big Ben after three lackluster performances in a row and many others benched Ben against the Colts as their defense had played very well in the weeks leading up to the game. That left at least 44 points unused that week, depending on the league configuration. Runner-up: Matt Asiata in Week 9 (second 3 TD performance of the year).

Worst Fantasy Move: Far too many owners gave up on Tom Brady after he started the season with 4 Geno Smith-like games in a row. This happened even in 12-team leagues! After a mediocre 2013, the thought was Tom Terrific was Tom Terrible. Yes, Gronk DOES make that much of a difference in the Patriots’ passing game. Runner-up: Overpaying for Toby Gerhart. Minnesota’s running blocking scheme made him look good.

Player To Immediately Trade For: Mark Ingram. He has played in 4 games this year and has put up 16, 16, 23 and 23 (his brief minutes against Detroit are exempt). With New Orleans committed to the running game and Ingram in a contract year, we expect more of this type of production. Runner-up: Sammy Watkins. He loves him some Kyle Orton.

Player To Offload ASAP: Frank Gore. Many people will overpay for a running back and Gore’s last month makes it seem that his best days are behind him. Even when he is feeling spry, Colin Kaepernick is finding a way to ruin San Fran’s season. It won’t be long before you see more of Carlos Hyde on the stat sheet. Runner-up: Steven Jackson. Jackson is faring better than Gore but, with Atlanta’s season soon to be in the tank, expect the Falcons to turn to their younger backs to see what they have in their future.

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