Thursday, August 28, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, I am always amused when people start producing mock drafts well in advance of Labor Day weekend. There are too many unknowns due to injuries, position battles and stupidity to make them worthwhile. I suppose if you are in a league that mandates that you draft weeks before the season starts, it makes sense but, even that cracks me up. If it is a league for fun, go crazy. However, most of us have a vested financial interest in how our team does and I sure as hell don’t want any of my top picks missing time due to non-regular season injury or off-the-field issue. It is pretty interesting to see the shift in average draft position in the weeks leading up to the season. Players like Steven Ridley and Cam Newton have cratered and players like James White and Emmanuel Sanders have shot up.

Mock drafts can vary greatly depending on the scoring system, especially when using Points Per Reception, and whether or not the league is a redraft league or a dynasty league. For our purposes, this is a standard fantasy football league scoring system for a redraft league.
This assumes a starting roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. Points would be awarded for the following actions:
  • Passing: 1 point for every 25 yards, 4 points for each Touchdown, and -2 for each Interception
  • Rushing: 1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for each Touchdown, and -2 for each fumble lost
  • Receiving: 1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for each Touchdown
  • Kicking: 3 points for every Field Goal made and 1 point for each successful Extra Point
  • Defense: 2 points for each fumble recovered, 2 points for each interception, 1 point for each sack, 2 points for a shutout and 2 points for a safety

Round 1
1 Jamaal Charles, KC
2 LeSean McCoy, PHI
3 Adrian Peterson, MIN
4 Eddie Lacy, GB
5 Matt Forte, CHI
6 Jimmy Graham, NO
7 Marshawn Lynch, SEA
8 Calvin Johnson, DET
9 Demaryius Thomas, DEN
10 Montee Ball, DEN
11 A.J. Green, CIN
12 Peyton Manning, DEN

Evaluation: Having one of the top 5 picks is easy since you could make a case for any of those running backs. After that, it is a bit sketchy as there is great depth at tight end and quarterback this year. It is nice to think about a team with Jimmy Graham or Peyton Manning on it, but I would prefer a running back to start my team off and build around.

Round 2
13 DeMarco Murray, DAL
14 Brandon Marshall, CHI
15 Dez Bryant, DAL
16 Andre Ellington, ARI
17 Zac Stacy, STL
18 Drew Brees, NO
19 Giovani Bernard, CIN
20 Alshon Jeffery, CHI
21 Doug Martin, TB
22 Le'Veon Bell, PIT
23 Aaron Rodgers, GB
24 Ryan Mathews, SD

Evaluation: Decision time in round 2. Should you go traditional and get a second RB or is it best to get one good RB and one good WR? I think that there is great depth at WR this year and recommend that you get 2 solid RBs.  

Round 3
25 Julio Jones, ATL
26 Jordy Nelson, GB
27 Antonio Brown, PIT
28 Randall Cobb, GB
29 Alfred Morris, WAS
30 Arian Foster, HOU
31 Julius Thomas, DEN
32 Andrew Luck, IND
33 Rashad Jennings, NYG
34 Toby Gerhart, JAC
35 Victor Cruz, NYG
36 Reggie Bush, DET

Evaluation: If you grabbed two RBs already, you definitely need to grab a WR in round 3.  If you split them, I recommend grabbing that second RB. If you grabbed Peyton, Brees or Rodgers, you need to balance out your team in this round as the tiers begin to fall off from here.

Round 4
37 Vincent Jackson, TB
38 Rob Gronkowski, NE
39 Andre Johnson, HOU
40 Matthew Stafford, DET
41 Keenan Allen, SD
42 Frank Gore, SF
43 DeSean Jackson, WAS
44 Michael Floyd, ARI
45 Pierre Garcon, WAS
46 Roddy White, ATL
47 Chris Johnson, NYJ
48 T.Y. Hilton, IND

Evaluation: Questions abound in round 4 due to direct or indirect health issues. Stafford should have a big year, but I really like Kennan Allen at this spot.

Round 5
49 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
50 Ben Tate, CLE
51 Torrey Smith, BAL
52 Steven Jackson, ATL
53 C.J. Spiller, BUF
54 Jordan Cameron, CLE
55 Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
56 Reggie Wayne, IND
57 Fred Jackson, BUF
58 Shane Vereen, NE
59 Marques Colston, NO
60 Percy Harvin, SEA

Evaluation: If you thought round 4 was tough, round 5 is even more difficult. There are a handful of players with very high upside here, such as Cordarrelle and C.J., but I like Cameron quite a bit since Cleveland has the absolute worst WRs ever lined up in professional football.

Round 6
61 Julian Edelman, NE
62 Jeremy Maclin, PHI
63 Eric Decker, NYJ
64 Colin Kaepernick, SF
65 Vernon Davis, SF
66 Wes Welker, DEN
67 Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
68 Trent Richardson, IND
69 Tom Brady, NE
70 Joique Bell, DET
71 Golden Tate, DET
72 Bishop Sankey, TEN

Evaluation: Tom Brady in round 6? It has been a long time since we have seen anything resembling this. I still think I would pass and grab Ryan, Rivers or Cutler in one of the next 3 rounds. I like Sanders if I want a WR here or Bell if I want a RB. He had great numbers last year, even in a split role. That role should continue this year with him getting the red zone work. Plus, Reggie isn’t Mr. Durability.

Round 7
73 Matt Ryan, ATL
74 Jason Witten, DAL
75 Mike Wallace, MIA
76 Kendall Wright, TEN
77 Terrance Williams, DAL
78 Michael Crabtree, SF
79 Ray Rice, BAL
80 Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK
81 Knowshon Moreno, MIA
82 Riley Cooper, PHI
83 Darren McFadden, OAK
84 Nick Foles, PHI

Evaluation: There is a lot of value in this round. I like Mike Wallace to have a solid year with Tannehill growing into his position. Matty Ice has his weapons back. Moreno should assume the #1 RB spot within a few weeks. Cooper, Williams and Wright will all have solid numbers. Enjoy this round as it won’t be this easy for a few rounds.

Round 8
85 Sammy Watkins, BUF
86 Russell Wilson, SEA
87 Stevan Ridley, NE
88 Pierre Thomas, NO
89 Tony Romo, DAL
90 Lamar Miller, MIA
91 Cam Newton, CAR
92 Brandin Cooks, NO
93 Cecil Shorts, JAC
94 Philip Rivers, SD
95 Dwayne Bowe, KC
96 Terrance West, CLE

Evaluation: LOADS of questionable picks here. If you need a QB, Rivers is a must-pick now. I trust Cooks and West as rookies more than Watkins but I would leave Cam and Ridley alone here. Bowe could be a value pick here since KC has no receivers past him.

Round 9
97 Dennis Pitta, BAL
98 Carlos Hyde, SF
99 DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
100 Kyle Rudolph, MIN
101 Jay Cutler, CHI
102 Robert Griffin III, WAS
103 Shonn Greene, TEN
104 Bernard Pierce, BAL
105 Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
106 Greg Olsen, CAR
107 Darren Sproles, PHI
108 Anquan Boldin, SF

Evaluation: This round is a mixture of good and bad. The ceiling on Cutler is sky-high this season but the threat of injury is always sky high with him. Kyle Rudolph should be a solid pick now as is Olsen. Lots of upside with Benjamin, Pitta and Hopkins.

Round 10
109 Jordan Reed, WAS
110 Jeremy Hill, CIN
111 DeAngelo Williams, CAR
112 Danny Woodhead, SD
113 Hakeem Nicks, IND
114 Justin Hunter, TEN
115 James White, NE
116 Martellus Bennett, CHI
117 Mark Ingram, NO
118 Danny Amendola, NE
119 James Jones, OAK
120 Jonathan Stewart, CAR

Evaluation: I have been fooled by Stewart, Amendola and Nicks enough to stay away. There is a lot of value in Hunter, White, Jones and Ingram in this round. Hill should see a nice split of action with Bernard as will Reed and Bennett on teams with lots of other options.

Round 11
121 Greg Jennings, MIN
122 Christine Michael, SEA
123 Marqise Lee, JAC
124 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
125 Zach Ertz, PHI
126 Tre Mason, STL
127 Jordan Matthews, PHI
128 Mike Evans, TB
129 Markus Wheaton, PIT
130 Donald Brown, SD
131 LeGarrette Blount, PIT
132 Steve Smith, BAL

Evaluation: Just when you would expect to be dragging the bottom of the barrel, you will find happiness in a lot of WR options here. This round epitomizes why I stressed a run on RBs early. Lee and Matthews could end up being the primary receiving options on their respective teams. Wheaton, Smith and Evans may also put up significant numbers as should Ertz at the TE position.

Round 12
133 Devonta Freeman, ATL
134 Ladarius Green, SD
135 Andy Dalton, CIN
136 Andre Williams, NYG
137 James Starks, GB
138 Knile Davis, KC
139 Khiry Robinson, NO
140 Rueben Randle, NYG
141 C.J. Anderson, DEN
142 Carson Palmer, ARI
143 Tavon Austin, STL
144 Seattle Seahawks D/ST

Evaluation: Hello Handcuffs! It is always a good idea to back up your studs RBs if they have talented backups. That is the majority of this round. There is always one team that considers themselves smart by choosing the top defense before the inevitable late run. I suppose I can support that over a backup QB.

Round 13
145 Brandon LaFell, NE
146 Josh McCown, TB
147 Ronnie Hillman, DEN
148 Doug Baldwin, SEA
149 Joe Flacco, BAL
150 Jerricho Cotchery, CAR
151 Charles Clay, MIA
152 Kenny Stills, NO
153 Mike James, TB
154 Mike Williams, BUF
164 San Francisco 49ers D/ST
155 Ahmad Bradshaw, IND
156 Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Evaluation: As mentioned in Round 11, you can find solid receiving options in these late rounds. The Patriots have no set number 1 WR and LaFell could easily assume that role. Carolina is starting fresh at WR and Cotchery has the most seniority. Seattle showed that they believe in Baldwin by giving him a contract to earn and Stills showed decent rapport with Brees last season, but you can’t expect consistent production from him.   

Round 14
157 Brian Hartline, MIA
158 Mohamed Sanu, CIN
159 Andrew Hawkins, CLE
160 Kenbrell Thompkins, NE
161 Carolina Panthers D/ST
162 Denver Broncos D/ST
163 Lance Dunbar, DAL
165 Antonio Gates, SD
166 Dwayne Allen, IND
167 Robert Woods, BUF
168 Michael Vick, NYJ

Evaluation: Bottom of the barrel, we find ye here. Hartline, Thompkins and Hawkins are well worth a flier here if you have room for an extra WR. Other than that grab a backup or think about dipping into the pool of defenses.

Round 15
169 Stephen Gostkowski, NE
170 New England Patriots D/ST
171 Houston Texans D/ST
172 Cincinnati Bengals D/ST
173 Arizona Cardinals D/ST
174 Dri Archer, PIT
175 Matt Bryant, ATL
176 Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST
177 Buffalo Bills D/ST
178 Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
179 Justin Tucker, BAL
180 St. Louis Rams D/ST

Evaluation: Get a defense. They are pretty thin this year.

Round 16
181 Steven Hauschka, SEA
182 Chris Ivory, NYJ
183 Mason Crosby, GB
184 Phil Dawson, SF
185 Adam Vinatieri, IND
186 Baltimore Ravens D/ST
187 Nick Folk, NYJ
188 Robbie Gould, CHI
189 Dan Bailey, DAL
190 Greg Zuerlein, STL
191 Nate Freese, DET
192 Nick Novak, SD

Evaluation: Get a kicker. You need to start one.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

2014 NFL Win-Loss Projections

With so much parity in the NFL nowadays, it is pretty difficult to accurately project a full season of games, not to mention the unknown factor of numerous key injuries. However, we love betting on NFL Futures so we forge ahead. We wager throughout the season so we will adjust our opinion of teams weekly, even it it goes against some of our projections. In the end, we always end up winning more on our Futures than losing, which is the ultimate goal. When it comes to wagering, we always recommend to have multiple locations to get your lines since lines, particularly with Futures, can vary quite a bit from place-to-place so get the best number you can. When reviewing our numbers, you’ll see that we expect no happiness in the New York market until hockey season, Johnny Football not being able to save the Mistake By The Lake, joy in the midwest as the Colts and the Bears have victorious years and the Rams to toil in misery – actually, when looking at their schedule, Bradford would not have been much help. It is a brutal line-up of games for them.


East Bill Book
East Bill Book
New England 11 11
Philly 9 9
Miami 7 7.5
Wash 7 7.5
Buffalo 6 7
Dallas 7 7.5
NY Jets 5 7
NY Giants 6 8







North


North

Baltimore 9 8.5
GB 11 10.5
Pittsburgh 9 8.5
Chicago 10 8.5
Cincy 9 9
Detroit 8 8.5
Cleveland 5 6.5
Minny 5 6







South


South

Indy 11 9.5
NO 11 10
Tenn 8 7
Atlanta 9 8.5
Houston 7 8
Carolina 7 8
Jax 5 5
TB 6 7







West


West

Denver 12 11.5
Seattle 12 11
KC 8 8
SF 11 10.5
San Diego 8 8
Arizona 8 7
Oakland 5 4
St. Louis 4 6


AFC Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Indy, Denver
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
AFC Championship game: Denver over New England

NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Wildcards: San Fran, Chicago
NFC Championship game: San Fran over Seattle

Super Bowl Champs: San Fran

Sunday, August 24, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

One of the keys to winning your fantasy football league is the ability to draft Sleepers. "Sleepers" are NFL players who are drafted in much lower rounds in your fantasy football drafts than their ending statistics warrant. In shopping terms, this is like getting a bottle of Sam Adams Utopias for Budweiser prices. In the fantasy football world, this is the avenue to the league championship. We have seen championships won on the heels of Sleepers every year. They have come out of nowhere to register monster years after being double-digit or waiver wire picks. When you can grab a player at the end of your draft that becomes your number 1 producer at a certain position, you, my friends, have a true Sleeper. Below are a few projected fantasy football sleepers by position for the 2014 season.


2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

QB: Jay Cutler (Chicago) – Yes, Cutler seems to be made of cupcakes thanks to his injury history, but that is something that can be overlooked under the right circumstances. It was obvious last year that the hype about coach Marc Trestman’s offensive prowess was warranted. Cutler put up great numbers until he was hurt just past the midway point in the season and Josh McCown didn’t miss a beat (the pair combining for 4450 yards and 32 TDs). With more time under center and absorbing the playbook, you can expect even better numbers from this offense this season. You can easily get Cutler around the 10th round since most of the teams in your league will scoop up the top 7 QBs early and will opt for rolling the dice with the likes of Nick Foles and RG3 before looking at the emotionless veteran.
Also consider: Josh McCown (Tampa), Ryan Fitzpatrick (HOU)


RB: Terrance West (Cleveland) – Thanks to Johnny Football, no position outside of QB is getting any attention in Cleveland even thouh they added a lot of new faces at the skill positions. At RB, they grabbed Ben Tate to be their starter but they also moved up in the draft to grab West. Tate has had a history of injuries so there is no way he becomes a full-time workhorse, especially when he is in a Kyle Shanahan offense that will have a QB recovering from an ACL injury or a rookie learning how to play the position. Because of those factors, West will see lots of carries, RB1 carries when Tate inevitably goes down. Word from training camp is that West has shown very good hands, much better than Tate, so that will get him more reps as well. You could let someone else grab Tate in the 4th round and then pounce on his handcuff in round 8.
Also consider: Dexter McCluster (TENN), Jeremy Hill (CIN)


WR: Brandin Cooks (New Orleans) – It is an inexact science to pick Saints’ receivers since Drew Brees enjoys spreading the ball around, but there are a LOT of points to be shared. It has become painfully obvious that Marques Colston has significantly declined and Lance Moore is now on the Steelers. Coach Sean Payton loves Cooks’ versatility and will work him into the offense on the outside, in the slot, returning kicks and even in the backfield. He isn’t big, checking in at 5’ 10” and 189lbs but he is quick. Rookie WRs are rarely consistent and often disappoint, but the upside is too great to let him slide past the 9th round.
Also consider: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN), Justin Hunter (TENN)


TE: Ladarius Green (San Diego) – the Tight End is a position that is very deep and turns out Sleepers year-in and year-out. Green saw his playing time significantly increase last season as Philip Rivers aired the ball out quite a bit and Green took Looks away from an aging Antonio Gates. Gates is still around, but Green is a beast at 6’6”, 240lbs, yet he flashed 4.5 speed. He proved that he was a big play threat in the middle of the field by logging 22.1 yards per catch. He is a lock for double-digit rounds and has the potential for getting you similar stats to TEs drafted many rounds earlier.
Also consider: Eric Ebron (DET), Zach Ertz (PHIL)


D: New England Patriots – The Patriots D rarely gets any props with Tom Terrific on the other side of the ball, but this unit is the key to success this season for New England. They lost some key players last season to injury that are back, such as DT Tommy Kelly, added some key players through the draft, such as DT Dominique Easley, and filled the remaining holes through free agency, most notably with Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. Add these players to Vince Wilfork, Rob Ninkovich, Dont’a Hightower and Devin McCourty and this is a unit that could almost overshadow the offense.
Also consider: Denver


K: Robbie Gould (Chicago) – Considering kickers should not be taken before the last two rounds, I have a hard time filling in a kicker as a Sleeper. However, Gould is consistently one of the last kickers taken and is about as automatic as you can get when it comes to kickers, even when playing half his games outdoors in the Windy City. Chicago's offense will be damn near unstoppable this season and Gould will have more even opportunities to ply his trade.
Also consider: Matt Bryant (ATL)

2014 NFL Fantasy Football Rookie Valuation

After the NFL season ends, loyal NFL fans look forward to May to see what gifts the NFL draft will provide them. No matter what position your team drafted in, you always hope that they found gems to plug those gaping holes or found the heir to replace current studs at key positions that were not addressed in free agency. For us, we look across the league to see what players have been drafted onto teams in a spot that they will have an impact on the fantasy football world.

So, with our fantasy football drafts approaching and a round of pre-season games in the books, here are the relevant rookies at the core skill positions and their projected draft round in standard 12-team fantasy football leagues. There was a time that we would avoid all rookie QBs and WRs that came into the league. However, the game has changed at the collegiate and professional level in ways that allow talented QBs to step under center and talented WRs to line up and be productive immediately. Now, it is still very hit-and-miss so do not reach and grab rookies too high or you could be looking up at the rest of the league quickly. Who from this year’s draft class will be the key players on your run to your fantasy league championship? Below is the consensus review from Maximum Fantasy Sports for the new crop of NFL rookies.

Quarterbacks

1. Johnny Manziel (Cleveland): The Manziel hype machine is far busier than Tebowmania could ever hope to muster and it is not going to quiet any time soon. It is too early to say when he will assume the starting QB position but it is hard not to envision it happening sooner than later. I would like his potential numbers much better if Josh Gordon had an ounce of common sense. I can easily see Johnny Football going off the board in the 13th round.

2. Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota): Another guaranteed starter this year, most likely early in the season as well. Bridgewater has better overall QB skills, but, with a better running game to count on, his fantasy stats won’t be as good as Manziel’s. With so many good NFL QBs to choose from, he is a speculative add, at best, with the last non-kicker pick of your draft.

3. Blake Bortles (Jacksonville): Bortles is the obvious heir apparent in Jacksonville while Chad Henne keeps the seat warm. I expect the season to be lost soon and Bortles to be the starting QB, but this team is a mess and I expect Bortles to be able to do very little to make much out of this season. He has the talent to succeed in a few years if the team can build around him. He is a waiver wire add late in the season to carry over to next year if your Keeper list is long enough.

4. David Carr (Oakland): Carr is in a similar situation to Bortles where he will be expected to learn from the bench until the season is lost and he gets some playing time. However, Oakland is very deep at running back so he will be a simple game-manager in the limited time he sees this year. Undraftable.

5. Tom Savage (Houston): Houston is going to be very unpredictable this year. They have the defense to help them compete for the wildcard, they have Arian Foster and hopes that he will stay healthy and they have two great wide receivers, one that needs to see his team make a serious playoff run to be happy. When Ryan Fitzpatrick gets hurt or fails, will the Texans turn to Case Keenum before Savage is the question. The only way you grab Savage is if your roster is really deep since most QBs could put up very good numbers under center in Houston.

Running Backs

1. Bishop Sankey (Tennessee): Sankey is definitely the future for the Titans and he has a chance to start that future with the team’s first offensive snap of the season. Listed number 1 back, Shonn Green, is coming off some unimpressive years in New York as well as a knee injury. Sankey put up great numbers at the University of Washington (1870yds and 20 TDs last season) and should be able to handle an NFL workload at 5’9” and 209lbs. I would add him as a late 3rd round or early 4th round pick.

2. Terrance West (Cleveland): West was mentioned as our Sleeper RB of 2014. The Browns signed Ben Tate to be their feature back and added West in the draft as a complement until he was ready to take over the team, not to mention that Ben Tate has had a history of injuries. While West didn’t come from a high-profile college (Towson), he was extremely prolific; 413 carries for 2509 yards and 41 TDs last year! There is no doubt he is your handcuff for Tate, but expect him to be involved in the offense right away, especially since he has impressed the coaching staff with good hands out of the backfield. I would expect to grab him in the 8th round.

3. Jeremy Hill (Cincinnati): Geovani Bernard is the Bengals ultra-back, but he isn’t built for being a full-time RB1 that takes the rock 250 times per year. The Bengals still have BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but he is proving to be on the downside of his career so expect Hill to gain more time as the goal-line and ground-and-pound type of running back, which suits his 6’1” 233lb body just fine. I would expect him to go off the board in the 9th round.

4. Carlos Hyde (San Francisco): Hyde was drafted as the successor to Frank Gore and expects to work his way towards that this season. Gore is wearing down after playing every game for the past three seasons and is on the negative side of 30. Hyde was penciled in behind Kendall Hunter, but Hunter got hurt in camp and is out for the season. Also, Marcus Lattimore is not proving ready for much of a workload quite yet so Hyde will begin getting work right away and will look at 10 carries per game to help keep Gore somewhat fresh throughout the season. He is one injury away for becoming a 25-carry per game RB. I would expect him to go off the board in the 10th round.

5. Devonta Freeman (Atlanta): The situation for Freeman is very similar to Hyde’s. Steven Jackson has been a bulldozer throughout his NFL career, but those big hits take their toll. Like Gore, Jackson is also 31 years old. He is currently the number 1 RB, but for how long? Freeman is the obvious handcuff to SJax and should be available until the 10th round as well.

Wide Receivers

1. Sammy Watkins (Buffalo): Sammy is the best pure receiver drafted this year. There is not a flaw in his game; he catches everything thrown his way, whether he should be able to or not, he has breakaway speed, he can go over the middle, and he has great moves. The downside, in my opinion, is that he plays for Buffalo and has E.J. Manuel throwing to him. Manual has talent, but he is a long way from being consistent enough to take advantage of Watkins’ talent. I expect him to go in the 6th round, but it is too high for me unless I am in a Keeper League.

2. Brandin Cooks (New Orleans): Cooks was our wide receiver Sleeper for 2014. He doesn’t have the overall talent as Sammy Watkins but he is in a much better situation. Drew Brees will love throwing to this guy. Granted, Brees spreads it around to his numerous weapons, but Cooks will be used in numerous positions and will see the ball a lot this year. He can handle the workload, as evidenced by his 128 catches for 1730 yards and 16 scores last year. With his 4.33 speed, he has a chance to score any time he has the ball. I would grab him in the 8th round.

3. Mike Evans (Tampa): Evans is another receiver that was drafted into the right position, as long as Josh McCown doesn’t prove that his 2013 success was all attributed to the Bears’ offense. Evans is a monster at 6’5” and 231lbs and will be an ideal end zone target. Playing across from Vincent Jackson will help keep the coverage down as well. He is a solid 9th round pick.

4. Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina): Out with the old and in with the new. Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell have been dismissed and a new group has been brought in led by behemoth Benjamin (6’5”, 240lbs) from Florida State. He is the class of their new Panthers receiving corps and assumes the #1 WR position. TE Greg Olsen will still be a favorite of Cam Newton’s and they will still run a lot, but Kelvin will put solid numbers. Carolina’s passing game has not been a juggernaut under Cam so that will knock Benjamin into double digit rounds.

5. Marqise Lee (Jacksonville): Here is another quality receiver stepping into the perfect situation. The Jags have lost Justin Blackmon for the year, again, and have injuries to Cecil Shorts, Ace Sanders and Allen Robinson to start the season. Lee is not the physical specimen like the others ahead of him, but he is a playmaker with amazing hands. He lost a few positions in the draft after USC’s program took a hit, but he has been pro-ready for a few years now. Lee should be available until round 12 or 13.

Tight Ends

1. Eric Ebron (Detroit): The Lions grew tired of watching TE Brandon Pettigrew continue to disappoint in the receiving game and decided to utilize him more as a blocker and Joseph Fauria in the red zone. They decided that they still needed to upgrade and drafted the 6’4” Ebron from North Carolina. Ebron has the physical gifts to punish linebackers and the speed and moves to get some decent YAC. He will be a nice fit between Megatron and Golden Tate. He will definitely go in double digit rounds due to the excess of quality tight ends. You can grab him as your TE2 in the 11th or 12th round.

2. Richard Rodgers (Green Bay): With the Packers losing Jermichael Finley to injury, they decided to look to the future and drafted Rodgers. Andrew Quarters will initially inherit Finley’s position, but he is merely serviceable. Aaron Rodgers will soon find his 6’4”, 257lb namesake to his liking. You can grab him as your TE2 before you grab your kicker in your last round.

3. Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Tampa): Tampa decided to make Jenkins their second round pick so they definitely see a future for the kid. Only special tight ends excel in their rookie year and I can’t say that will happen this year for Jenkins. Tim Wright is securely entrenched as the starting tight end so it will take an injury for Jenkins to get significant playing time. He is currently undraftable.

4. Jace Amaro (New York Jets): The Jets are also looking towards the future by drafting a tight end. Amaro has the size to play in the NFL, 6’5” and 265lbs, but he has had a hard time transitioning from Texas Tech to the NFL. Current tight end, Jeff Cumberland, has a firm grasp on the starting gig and the Jets are still working out their kinks at QB, so I would not look in Amaro’s direction for help this season, even if Cumberland gets hurt.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Leagues

We would normally be gearing up for the NFL Draft right now. However, due to Radio City Music Hall scheduling a musical called Heart & Lights, the draft has been pushed back to May. The NFL could have easily found another hosting location, but it is pretty easy to discern that they have been looking for a convenient excuse to push the draft back. It is widely believed that this move is permanent. Maybe it gives the teams more time to evaluate players, make trades or shorten the time before camp opens to put pressure on the players to sign and get to work. For us, it just means another month of draft projections and far too much air time for Mel Kiper and Todd Mcshay.

As far as fantasy football goes, we still have plenty of time to evaluate how drafted players will project on their new teams and training camp and pre-season games are still on the same schedule. Now that NCAA hoops is over, we are in that lull period before summer where MLB is just starting and the NHL and NBA begin their second season called the Playoffs. We will be well into planning our draft strategies when those second seasons mercifully come to an end.

At MFS, we are finishing up our off-season changes for the 2014 football season. Aside from some cosmetic changes, we have some big changes afoot at MFS. The highlighted changes are:

  • Drag & Drop functionality on Fantasy league rosters and Confidence Pool rankings
  • More push notifications on league activity
  • The ability to hide leagues and pools that have ended for an individual or as a whole
  • A new Open Leagues page to list all MFS leagues with openings as well as any Private leagues and pools that desire to opt in to advertise their openings
  • And our biggest change: Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Playoff Leagues!
Check in on or after June 1st to register your 2014 leagues and pools and just into one or more of our many Public fantasy leagues.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Super Bowl Game and Prop Picks

Well, we absolutely sucked on Championship week. San Fran's 4th quarter meltdown and WAY too many field goals in Denver were to blame. Bummer, but we move on to the Super Bowl. Enjoy what should be a very competitive game and feel free to eat and drink as much as you want, no matter what anyone else sez. See you next season!
GAME
Seattle (ML) vs. Denver - Seattle is the better team in all facets of the game except the passing game. However, their biggest strength is in their "Legion Of Boom" secondary. No one has been able to establish dominance against this unit all year. Denver will have some success but not enough. Manning does not pose the running threat of Colin Kaepernick so he is actually easier to defense for Seattle. This will be a fun chess game to watch. Denver's defense has played much better in the last 6 games, but they are not as good as the final scores have indicated. Seattle will be able to methodically move the ball up and down the field on Sunday and win this game in the neighborhood of 24-20. Play Seattle for 7 units on the moneyline at +115.
 
PROP BETS:
Doug Baldwin (SEA) O3.5 receptions for 1 unit at -105
Doug Baldwin (SEA) O39.5 yards for 1 unit at -120
Zach Miller (SEA) O2 receptions for 1 unit at -130
Percy Harvin (SEA) O4 receptions for 1 unit at -130
Eric Decker (DEN) O57.5 yards for 1 unit at -135
Seattle last score of game - FG - for 1 unit at +150
Seattle O1.5 sacks for 1 unit at -120
Both teams will make a FG O33.5 yards for 3 units at +125
 
6-point Teaser (6-5 Odds) for 4 units
SEA +8
SEA/DEN  U54.5
 
Season Record:
Sides: 41-39   (-33.6 units)
Totals: 15-12   (+3.9 units)
Teasers: 8-11  (+15 units)
Moneyline: 3-3 (+1.6 units)
Parlays: 2-8  (-5.6 units)