Week 7 Sweetness

Some weekends, you are The King and some weekends, you just get trumped. It is good to be The King at times. Hail to The King, baby! Of course, we needed a break in the Buffalo game to get the W and needed San Diego to absolutely implode to get a Broncos win, but we have all been on the other side of those games before. This is why you have to be patient and exercise discipline in the betting game. When the breaks aren't going your way on a weekend, don't double down. You are never "due". You just need to eat a losing week and look forward to the next week and make sure that you are thinking about that week with the previous week out of your mind. Too many gamblers get in over their head by placing "Eraser" bets; ie, chasing a loss to try to get back to even. Never bet more on a game because you have been losing and don't bet on games late in the weekend that you didn't plan on betting to begin with. It is no shame to have a losing week. EVERY gambler has them. The shame is selling your HD TV to pay The Man. Now, the other problem is the week after a big winning week. It is easy to start betting more on the games since you are playing with House money. That is a fast way to give it back. Set a betting amount and stick with it. Now, here are my follow up plays:

Buffalo vs. Tennessee - both of these teams have zero defense, which is good for the Over since both offenses are somewhat healthy. I expect big games out of all RBs, but that really won't slow the game down since they'll be ripping off huge gain after huge gain. Pound the Over as the total easily goes into the 50s or higher.
Indianapolis vs. Cleveland - this is another game that I look for where both teams have bad defenses and enough talent on offense to exploit the defenseless opponent. Unlike the Buffalo game, I expect this one to be an aerial show since both teams have banged up running games and talented young QBs. This is another game that will easily exceed the total and win us some cash. Why else would we be interested in watching this game?!

Chicago vs. Detroit - the Bears may not have wanted the Bye week to hit when it did since they were clicking on all cylinders. However, a little rest for some of their older players is never a bad thing nor is additional rest for Forte's ankle. Detroit may have won last week, but it was more about Philly gifting the win to them. Unless Bad Cutler shows up, that won't happen Monday night. I expect the Bears to be even hungrier after hibernating for a week and a half. Buck up and Bear Down! The Bears will roll on the big MNF stage.

6-Point Teaser bet of the week:Indy/Cleveland O39.5
Buffalo/Tennessee O40.5
Minnesota -0.5
Chicago -0.5

Good Bye or Bad Bye

Much like the NFL's weeknight schedule, expect the Bye weeks to change year after year as they tweak it to improve revenue. The Bye weeks run longer this year than any prior year, which means less teams off during the heart of the season. The exception is week 7 when 6 teams are on Bye. On the other 7 weeks, the NFL only rests 2 or 4 teams. Aside from Miami, the teams on Bye this week contain multiple players started in more than 75% of all leagues. These players include 3 of the top 10 QBs in terms of points scored this season, 5 of the top 15 RBs, 4 of the top 15 WRs and 3 of the top 15 TEs. The waiver wire is thin enough when it comes to replacing these players, but then you need to mix in injuries. These situations leave a definitive demarcation between The Haves and The Have-Nots. Hopefully, you were careful enough (or lucky enough) to not load your roster up with players from teams on Bye this week. If not, there are some players available with good matchups that can prove useful this week:

Fill-in Players for Week 7:

QB: Brandon Weeden (CLE) - the Colts defense is still very bad. They are so bad that they made both Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow look like NFL quarterbacks last weekend. Mix in that Trent Richardson has banged up ribs so the Browns will be throwing more.

RB: Felix Jones (DAL) - if he is available, grab him and belittle the DeMarco Murray owner that failed to handcuff Jones to Murray. When you have a RB1 with a history of injuries, it is a MUST to have his backup on your lineup. I was shocked to see how many leagues had Jones on the waiver wire going into this week.

RB: Mike Goodson (OAK) - speaking of handcuffs, Darren McFadden owners have left Goodson on the waiver wire even as he has been seeing more action each week. Goodson has done quite a bit with his opportunities and McFadden has a dinged up shoulder so I can see Goodson continue to work into more series.

RB: Jonathan Dwyer (PITT) - with Rashard Mendenhall out with an achilles strain, Dwyer is getting another shot as the starting RB since Isaac Redman is also out for the week. Dwyer is just coming of an injury of his own, so the Steelers will work Baron Batch into the rotation on Sunday as well.

WR: Josh Gordon (CLE) - see Brandon Weeden. We recommended Gordon last week. This week, we strongly recommend Gordon if he is available in your league. These two rookies have bonded and have bonded on the deep route so get Gordon off the waiver wire and into your starting lineup. He could end up Wally Pipping Derrick Bowe in your lineup if he and Weeden keep up this connection.


WR: Chris Givens (STL) - Givens is not seeing a lot of action, but he is involved in at least one big play a game recently. As teams begin keying on Brandon Gibson, Sam Bradford may begin looking Givens' way a bit more often.

A Plan Gone Awry

Going to this year's draft, I had a few different strategies based on who I ended up with for my first pick. Having two solid RBs is a Must in fantasy football. Having LeSean McCoy or Ray Rice and Michael Turner or Marshawn Lynch seemed like a good foundation. If drafting at the end of the first round, I often found myself getting Adrian Peterson and Trent Richardson or Matt Forte and walked away happy. The one scenario I wanted to avoid at all costs, but am in too many leagues not to have to chance it in at least one, was to have Chris Johnson as my #1 draft pick. Could this be his "comeback" year? If so, I figured I had to roll the dice in at least one league. In this case, my strategy was still to get a solid number 2, which I did with Frank Gore, but I wanted a group of later picks that should yield at least one solid replacement if CJnoK should return. With that, I grabbed solid WRs and then, starting in round 7, I grabbed 4 "backups" over the next 6 rounds; Cedric Benson, Donald Brown, Ryan Williams and Mikel LeShoure. That strategy definitely isn't paying off unless the Lions commit to LeShoure the rest of the year as they did in Week 3....as in the week that I still had Chris Johnson playing and rushing for 24 yards with a 5 yard topping of receiving yards. Week 4 had me flipping the two RBs and watching CJ go off for 141 yards against Houston (huh?) and LeShoure get limited to less than 5 points. That is the week that preceded the systematic destruction of my remaining backups last weekend. Because of that, I am definitely in tune with this week's waiver wire.

Players Out for Week 6:

Cedric Benson - Lisfranc came a-calling for Benson and she is a home body. She wants Benson to keep her company for at least 8 weeks. Grab Alex Green for this week and James Starks for a longer-term replacement (he will slide back into the #1 RB for GB within the next two weeks).

Ryan Williams - the knee cost Williams 2011 and his shoulder will cost him the remainder of 2012. He had the job and just lost his chance to solidifying it for years to come. He is now in the China Doll category going forward. There is no sure replacement for him in AZ right now, but LaRod Stephens-Howling will get first crack since he looked good in a full-game in week 17 2011. However, he is 5'7" 185 so don't get your hopes up for him as a full-time replacement. William Powell is a bigger back and will get more of the true RB carries. Howling will have a Sproles-like role. Donald Brown - Brown was a late addition to the injury list week after finding out that he tore some cartilage in his knee. He is only out 2-3 weeks, but hasn't necessarily been lighting up the scoreboard. Surprisingly, rookie RB Vick Ballard is first in line to replace him instead of Delone Carter. With the Jets, Browns and Titans over the next three weeks, Ballard could be the best short-term replacement of the backs mentioned here.

Danny Amendola - was anyone shocked that St. Louis lost a WR? Amendola came into prominence after the Rams lost seemingly their first two strings of receivers last year. It is unknown how long he will be out, but he will be missed, especially in PPR leagues. Expect Sam Bradford to direct more Looks at Brandon Gibson so grab him if you need receiving help. Even deeper is WR Chris Givens. It appears that the rookie, Brian Quick, will not be fast off the bench to take many of Amendola's snaps.

Should you need Bye-week fill-in players, you could do worse than grabbing these guys not mentioned above:

QB: Alex Smith (SF), Brandon Weeden (CLE)
RB: Danny Woodhead (NE)
WR: Robert Meachem (SD) (he showed up as expected last week, but was it only to remind the Saints that they let him walk), Josh Gordon (CLE), Jeremy Kerley (NYJ)
TE: Heath Miller (PITT), Scott Chandler (BUF)
D: Miami, Tampa

NFL Week 5 Replacement Players

Making some lineup decisions in Week 4 was difficult as both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller both played for Buffalo, rendering Tashard Choice useless. Hakeem Nicks sat and Ramses Barden was knocked out with a concussion. Reggie Bush played, but did little. Matthew Stafford lined up under center but was shut down by the Vikings. Pierre Garcon didn't get thrown to much but found himself at the right place at the right time to at least salvage a TD on a fumble recovery. As of today, at least many of the question marks have been designated Out by their teams, which removes any question about starting them or not.

Players Out for Week 5:

Hakeem Nicks - out again this week as is Ramses Barden. Domenik Hixon is the player you want to pick up to replace Nicks.

Greg Jennings - a groin injury has Jennings out this week. James Jones is the player you want to pick up to replace Jennings. Be aware of his inconsistency and is coming off a big game last week. Rodgers could find Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley as his favorite targets in Indy.
Lance Moore - a hammy injury has Moore out this week, which is not good for his owners since the Saints will put up a lot of points and Moore excels at home. Should you need a replacement, Devery Henderson may be due for one of his yearly 3 catch, 100 yard, 1 TD games.

Austin Collie - another hard luck season for Collie as he is done for the year with a knee injury. This definitely bumps Donnie Avery up a bit. If he is not available, take a look at rookie T.Y. Hilton. Hilton looked good against Jacksonville two weeks ago and Luck will continue to throw a lot for the rest of the year.

Should you need Bye-week fill-in players, you could do worse than grabbing these guys not mentioned above:

QB: Alex Smith (SF), Matt Hasselbeck (TENN)
RB: Jackie Battle (SD), Brandon Bolden (NE)
WR: Devone Bess (MIA), Brian Hartline (MIA), Robert Meachem (SD) (if he does nothing against the Saints, consider him dead weight)
TE: Heath Miller (PITT), Scott Chandler (BUF)
D: Cincinnati, Minnesota