Thursday, October 11, 2012

A Plan Gone Awry

Going to this year's draft, I had a few different strategies based on who I ended up with for my first pick. Having two solid RBs is a Must in fantasy football. Having LeSean McCoy or Ray Rice and Michael Turner or Marshawn Lynch seemed like a good foundation. If drafting at the end of the first round, I often found myself getting Adrian Peterson and Trent Richardson or Matt Forte and walked away happy. The one scenario I wanted to avoid at all costs, but am in too many leagues not to have to chance it in at least one, was to have Chris Johnson as my #1 draft pick. Could this be his "comeback" year? If so, I figured I had to roll the dice in at least one league. In this case, my strategy was still to get a solid number 2, which I did with Frank Gore, but I wanted a group of later picks that should yield at least one solid replacement if CJnoK should return. With that, I grabbed solid WRs and then, starting in round 7, I grabbed 4 "backups" over the next 6 rounds; Cedric Benson, Donald Brown, Ryan Williams and Mikel LeShoure. That strategy definitely isn't paying off unless the Lions commit to LeShoure the rest of the year as they did in Week 3....as in the week that I still had Chris Johnson playing and rushing for 24 yards with a 5 yard topping of receiving yards. Week 4 had me flipping the two RBs and watching CJ go off for 141 yards against Houston (huh?) and LeShoure get limited to less than 5 points. That is the week that preceded the systematic destruction of my remaining backups last weekend. Because of that, I am definitely in tune with this week's waiver wire.

Players Out for Week 6:

Cedric Benson - Lisfranc came a-calling for Benson and she is a home body. She wants Benson to keep her company for at least 8 weeks. Grab Alex Green for this week and James Starks for a longer-term replacement (he will slide back into the #1 RB for GB within the next two weeks).

Ryan Williams - the knee cost Williams 2011 and his shoulder will cost him the remainder of 2012. He had the job and just lost his chance to solidifying it for years to come. He is now in the China Doll category going forward. There is no sure replacement for him in AZ right now, but LaRod Stephens-Howling will get first crack since he looked good in a full-game in week 17 2011. However, he is 5'7" 185 so don't get your hopes up for him as a full-time replacement. William Powell is a bigger back and will get more of the true RB carries. Howling will have a Sproles-like role.
Donald Brown - Brown was a late addition to the injury list week after finding out that he tore some cartilage in his knee. He is only out 2-3 weeks, but hasn't necessarily been lighting up the scoreboard. Surprisingly, rookie RB Vick Ballard is first in line to replace him instead of Delone Carter. With the Jets, Browns and Titans over the next three weeks, Ballard could be the best short-term replacement of the backs mentioned here.

Danny Amendola - was anyone shocked that St. Louis lost a WR? Amendola came into prominence after the Rams lost seemingly their first two strings of receivers last year. It is unknown how long he will be out, but he will be missed, especially in PPR leagues. Expect Sam Bradford to direct more Looks at Brandon Gibson so grab him if you need receiving help. Even deeper is WR Chris Givens. It appears that the rookie, Brian Quick, will not be fast off the bench to take many of Amendola's snaps.

Should you need Bye-week fill-in players, you could do worse than grabbing these guys not mentioned above:

QB: Alex Smith (SF), Brandon Weeden (CLE)
RB: Danny Woodhead (NE)
WR:
Robert Meachem (SD) (he showed up as expected last week, but was it only to remind the Saints that they let him walk), Josh Gordon (CLE), Jeremy Kerley (NYJ)
TE: Heath Miller (PITT), Scott Chandler (BUF)
D: Miami, Tampa

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