2016 NFL Win Futures Predictions

Every year, Bill and Ron provide their projections for success and failure at a team level and usually fare pretty well against the lines projected by the wagering community. They don’t always see eye-to-eye on the projections so we always recommend to pick the teams that they do agree on when it differs from the Vegas number. Right now, the Futures for Dallas, Minnesota and Philadelphia are off so you will have to check back on those later this week. For now, these are the teams that we recommend putting some money on:

Over the Win Total: Kansas City, Washington, Arizona
Under the Win Total: Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee, Atlanta, San Fran
Division Winners: New England, Jax, Washington, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona
AFC Champ: Pittsburgh
NFC Champ: Arizona
Super Bowl Champ: Arizona

East	Ron	Bill	Book		East	Ron	Bill	Book
New England	12	10	10.5		Wash	10	9	7.5
NY Jets	9	9	8		Dallas	9	7
Buffalo	8	8	8		NY Giants	8	9	8
Miami	5	6	7		Philly	5	5
North					North
Cincy	11	10	9.5		GB	12	12	11
Pittsburgh	10	11	10.5		Chicago	8	8	7.5
Baltimore	7	6	8		Minny	7	7
Cleveland	3	5	5		Detroit	6	8	7
South					South
Jax	9	8	7.5		Carolina	11	11	10.5
Houston	8	7	8.5		TB	7	7	7.5
Indy	7	8	9		NO	6	7	7
Tenn	3	5	6		Atlanta	4	5	7
West					West
KC	11	10	9.5		Arizona	13	12	10.5
Oakland	9	8	8.5		Seattle	11	10	10.5
Denver	9	9	9		LA Rams	7	7	7
San Diego	7	8	7.5		SF	4	4	5.5

Ron                                
AFC Division winners: New England, Cincy, Jax, Kansas City
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Denver
AFC Championship game:  Pitt over New England

NFC Division winners:  Washington, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona
NFC Wildcards:  Seattle, Dallas
NFC Championship game:  Arizona over Green Bay

Super Bowl Champs: Arizona over Pitt

Bill                                
AFC Division winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Jax, Kansas City
AFC Wildcards: Cincy, Jets
AFC Championship game:  Pitt over Kansas City

NFC Division winners:  Washington, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona
NFC Wildcards:  Seattle, New York Giants
NFC Championship game:  Arizona over Green Bay

Super Bowl Champs: Arizona over Pitt

2013 NFL Win Projections

This is an interesting season. The AFC division races will primarily be over with by the mid-point of the season, outside of the AFC North, and the NFC division races will come down to the last week of the season, at least according to the projections that I put together. I didn't really step out on a limb for my Super Bowl champ, though deciding between Denver, San Francisco and Atlanta was difficult. For wagering purposes, the Under on Wins for Miami, Jacksonville, the Jets, San Diego and Oakland look real good. For Overs, Houston, Cincinnati and New Orleans look real tasty.

East	Bill	Book		East	Bill	Book
New England	10	11		NY Giants	9	9
Miami	7	8		Dallas	9	8.5
Buffalo	6	6.5		Wash	8	8.5
NY Jets	4	6.5		Philly	7	7.5
North				North
Cincy	10	8.5		GB	10	10.5
Pittsburgh	9	9		Chicago	9	8.5
Baltimore	8	8.5		Detroit	7	8
Cleveland	6	6		Minny	7	7.5
South				South
Houston	12	10.5		Atlanta	11	10
Indy	9	8.5		NO	11	9
Tenn	6	6.5		Carolina	7	7
Jax	3	5		TB	6	7.5
West				West
Denver	12	11.5		SF	11	11
KC	8	7.5		Seattle	10	10.5
San Diego	6	7.5		St. Louis	8	7.5
Oakland	4	5.5		Arizona	6	5.5

AFC Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis
AFC Championship game: Denver over Houston

NFC Division winners: New York Giants, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco
NFC Wildcards: New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Championship game: Atlanta over San Francisco

Super Bowl Champs: Denver

Week 7 Sweetness

Some weekends, you are The King and some weekends, you just get trumped. It is good to be The King at times. Hail to The King, baby! Of course, we needed a break in the Buffalo game to get the W and needed San Diego to absolutely implode to get a Broncos win, but we have all been on the other side of those games before. This is why you have to be patient and exercise discipline in the betting game. When the breaks aren't going your way on a weekend, don't double down. You are never "due". You just need to eat a losing week and look forward to the next week and make sure that you are thinking about that week with the previous week out of your mind. Too many gamblers get in over their head by placing "Eraser" bets; ie, chasing a loss to try to get back to even. Never bet more on a game because you have been losing and don't bet on games late in the weekend that you didn't plan on betting to begin with. It is no shame to have a losing week. EVERY gambler has them. The shame is selling your HD TV to pay The Man. Now, the other problem is the week after a big winning week. It is easy to start betting more on the games since you are playing with House money. That is a fast way to give it back. Set a betting amount and stick with it. Now, here are my follow up plays:

Buffalo vs. Tennessee - both of these teams have zero defense, which is good for the Over since both offenses are somewhat healthy. I expect big games out of all RBs, but that really won't slow the game down since they'll be ripping off huge gain after huge gain. Pound the Over as the total easily goes into the 50s or higher.
Indianapolis vs. Cleveland - this is another game that I look for where both teams have bad defenses and enough talent on offense to exploit the defenseless opponent. Unlike the Buffalo game, I expect this one to be an aerial show since both teams have banged up running games and talented young QBs. This is another game that will easily exceed the total and win us some cash. Why else would we be interested in watching this game?!

Chicago vs. Detroit - the Bears may not have wanted the Bye week to hit when it did since they were clicking on all cylinders. However, a little rest for some of their older players is never a bad thing nor is additional rest for Forte's ankle. Detroit may have won last week, but it was more about Philly gifting the win to them. Unless Bad Cutler shows up, that won't happen Monday night. I expect the Bears to be even hungrier after hibernating for a week and a half. Buck up and Bear Down! The Bears will roll on the big MNF stage.

6-Point Teaser bet of the week:Indy/Cleveland O39.5
Buffalo/Tennessee O40.5
Minnesota -0.5
Chicago -0.5

2012 NFL Win Projections

I am not going too far out on a limb on many of these picks. I will be the first to admit that they look a lot like how they ended up last year. It wasn't intentional. The numbers just ended up there once I tabulated my head-to-head results. There are a few wagering opportunities in here though.

East	Bill	Book		East	Bill	Book
New England	13	12.5		Philly	9	10
Buffalo	10	8		Dallas	8	8.5
NY Jets	9	9		NY Giants	8	8.5
Miami	6	7		Wash	6	6
North				North
Baltimore	10	10		GB	12	12
Pittsburgh	10	10		Chicago	11	9.5
Cincy	7	8		Detroit	9	9
Cleveland	5	5		Minny	5	6
South				South
Houston	10	10		Atlanta	10	9
Tenn	8	7.5		NO	9	9.5
Indy	4	5		Carolina	8	8
Jax	3	5		TB	8	5.5
West				West
KC	9	8		SF	9	9.5
Oakland	8	7.5		Seattle	6	7
San Diego	7	9		Arizona	6	6.5
Denver	7	8.5		St. Louis	6	6

AFC Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Buffalo
AFC Championship game: New England over Baltimore

NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Fran
NFC Wildcards: New Orleans, Chicago
NFC Championship game: Green Bay over Atlanta

Super Bowl Champs: Green Bay