No One Wants a Tie

Well, week 6 was as baffling as the five that preceded it. The Giants reverted back to their true selves after three impressive performances, though an extremely aggressive defense had something to do with that. A Cleveland defense that had a hard time stopping Jake Locker and Charlie Whitehurst shut down a Pittsburgh offense that was previously somewhat dynamic. Of course, the biggest eye-opener was Dallas. I mocked their defense at the start of the year and have been proven wrong, plus it looks as though they have quit wilting under pressure. After Romo went down in the first quarter and looked iffy to return, I remarked that they would lose by 50 after Seattle blocked that punt for a TD to go up 10-0. Good thing that I was full of beers and wings at that point as a huge heaping of crow was delivered to me before I left the pub.

A few other things that stood out to me on Sunday:

• Wang Dang No Poontang for Mike Nugent. NO kicker is perfect, just look at Detroit’s three kickers this season, but to miss like that after the offense executed a beautiful two-minute drive was devastating. Oh yeah…and it left the game at a tie which killed many Teaser bets and knocked out many Survivor Teams (ties always lose in Survivor Pools, no matter if you pick winners or losers). Loads of people were unhappy. I am sure that his teammates kept it to themselves, except for that idiot Adam Jones. Yep, the same Adam Jones that plays on defense and had multiple opportunities to stop Carolina and preserve the win long before Nugent’s big miss. I think the defense is more accountable. Back-to-back very poor performances where they rarely had their opponent punting is a bigger cause for concern than a missed field goal.
• After the Chargers erased a 50+ yard field goal by Nick Novak due to a holding penalty, they were faced with a 4th and 35….and tried a fake punt…..that wasn’t even close. Who is running that asylum? Hell, they should have just tried another field goal if they didn’t feel like advancing the ball.
• Speaking of field goals, Tennessee’s Prevent defense almost prevented a win as the Jaguars woke up with a late TD, onside kick and could have won the game on a field goal if it was elevated a weee bit more.
• It was kind of cool to look up at the Arizona game and see Michael Floyd score (happiness is a return of Carson Palmer for Cardinals receivers) and a short time later to  look up at San Diego scoring with a TD pass to his brother-from-another-mother, Malcom. By the way, he is still looking for that lost “L”.
• No one does more with less than Atlanta’s RB Antone Smith. He ripped off another long TD; 41 yards against the Bears. HOW the Falcons are not using him more baffles me more than Eli with a good game.
• The Jets had 31 yards rushing on Sunday…with a lot of it coming towards the end of the game. They were actually in single digits early in the fourth quarter.
• Joe Flacco had FIVE TD passes in slightly over 16 minutes on Sunday. So much for Tampa having any hope this season. Their defense is BAAAAAD and it does not reflect well on defensive-minded Lovie Smith.
• Of course, I would be remiss if I did not mention the Giants. Worst. Performance. Ever. To add injury on top of insult, the Giants had a TD to Larry Donnell taken off the board thanks to a holding penalty a few plays before the ill-fated pass to Victor Cruz. If they weren’t stinking the joint up so much, they would have settled for a FG instead of going for it on 4th down. Sad to see a good guy like Victor lose his season to an injury that he may never fully recover from thanks to bad New York karma.
• Shutouts are rare in this offense-centric, defense-absent NFL but somehow a New York team has posted one in back-to-back weeks.
• I love me some Ickey Shuffle…and so does Jeremy Hill. He paid tribute after his TD on Sunday. I still crack up every time I see that Geico commercial. Gonna get some cold cuts today!

Unfortunately, one constant about the NFL is the number of injuries that occur every week. I already mentioned Victor Cruz, but the list is long once again, especially if you include defensive players. So, owners are again scouring the waiver wire for Bye week and injury replacements. This week, we have the following:

QB: Derek Carr (OAK) - the kid looks polished and poised. I would only take a rookie QB if desperate or the matchup is right as they can disappoint as easy as they can impress. He did play well at home against a good Chargers’ defense and gets another home game this week versus Arizona.

RB: James White (NE) - this is a longer-term speculative pick up. With Steven Ridley out, Shane Vereen will get more time as will RB Brandon Bolden on a short week. However, White had a great camp and I believe that the Patriots see him as their future number 1 so this will be the trigger to start working him towards that this season.

RB: James Stewart (CAR) - he sits on almost every waiver wire and looks to be finally ready to start playing. The Panthers tried about six different backs while he and DeAngelo Williams have been hurt and none impressed. Starting RBs are tough to come by right now so it is worth a roster spot for Stewart if you need a RB.

WR: Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) – he is definitely a must-add now that Cruz is out.

WR: Andre Holmes (OAK) - he is Derek Carr’s go-to receiver and has almost 200 yards and three TDs in the past two weeks. His emergence is also helping out WR James Jones.

TE: Benjamin Watson (NO) – with Jimmy Graham out for a game or two, Watson makes the most sense as his replacement. He performed well in his time in Cleveland and is more of an offensive threat than TE Josh Hill. That being said, Hill is worthy of a pick up as well as he has found the end zone twice already this season while Jimmy Graham was playing.

TE: Jace Amaro (NYJ) – the Jets won’t completely abandon the run game every week so don’t expect 10 catches for Amaro every week, but he is now part of the weekly gameplan. Of course, he needs to lessen his Drops if he can truly be counted on, but he did show last week that he can handle the workload if called upon.

2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, I am always amused when people start producing mock drafts well in advance of Labor Day weekend. There are too many unknowns due to injuries, position battles and stupidity to make them worthwhile. I suppose if you are in a league that mandates that you draft weeks before the season starts, it makes sense but, even that cracks me up. If it is a league for fun, go crazy. However, most of us have a vested financial interest in how our team does and I sure as hell don’t want any of my top picks missing time due to non-regular season injury or off-the-field issue. It is pretty interesting to see the shift in average draft position in the weeks leading up to the season. Players like Steven Ridley and Cam Newton have cratered and players like James White and Emmanuel Sanders have shot up.

Mock drafts can vary greatly depending on the scoring system, especially when using Points Per Reception, and whether or not the league is a redraft league or a dynasty league. For our purposes, this is a standard fantasy football league scoring system for a redraft league.

This assumes a starting roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. Points would be awarded for the following actions:

• Passing: 1 point for every 25 yards, 4 points for each Touchdown, and -2 for each Interception
• Rushing: 1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for each Touchdown, and -2 for each fumble lost
• Receiving: 1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for each Touchdown
• Kicking: 3 points for every Field Goal made and 1 point for each successful Extra Point
• Defense: 2 points for each fumble recovered, 2 points for each interception, 1 point for each sack, 2 points for a shutout and 2 points for a safety

Round 1

1 Jamaal Charles, KC
2 LeSean McCoy, PHI
3 Adrian Peterson, MIN
4 Eddie Lacy, GB
5 Matt Forte, CHI
6 Jimmy Graham, NO
7 Marshawn Lynch, SEA
8 Calvin Johnson, DET
9 Demaryius Thomas, DEN
10 Montee Ball, DEN
11 A.J. Green, CIN
12 Peyton Manning, DEN

Evaluation: Having one of the top 5 picks is easy since you could make a case for any of those running backs. After that, it is a bit sketchy as there is great depth at tight end and quarterback this year. It is nice to think about a team with Jimmy Graham or Peyton Manning on it, but I would prefer a running back to start my team off and build around.

Round 2

13 DeMarco Murray, DAL
14 Brandon Marshall, CHI
15 Dez Bryant, DAL
16 Andre Ellington, ARI
17 Zac Stacy, STL
18 Drew Brees, NO
19 Giovani Bernard, CIN
20 Alshon Jeffery, CHI
21 Doug Martin, TB
22 Le'Veon Bell, PIT
23 Aaron Rodgers, GB
24 Ryan Mathews, SD

Evaluation: Decision time in round 2. Should you go traditional and get a second RB or is it best to get one good RB and one good WR? I think that there is great depth at WR this year and recommend that you get 2 solid RBs.  

Round 3

25 Julio Jones, ATL
26 Jordy Nelson, GB
27 Antonio Brown, PIT
28 Randall Cobb, GB
29 Alfred Morris, WAS
30 Arian Foster, HOU
31 Julius Thomas, DEN
32 Andrew Luck, IND
33 Rashad Jennings, NYG
34 Toby Gerhart, JAC
35 Victor Cruz, NYG
36 Reggie Bush, DET

Evaluation: If you grabbed two RBs already, you definitely need to grab a WR in round 3.  If you split them, I recommend grabbing that second RB. If you grabbed Peyton, Brees or Rodgers, you need to balance out your team in this round as the tiers begin to fall off from here.

Round 4

37 Vincent Jackson, TB
38 Rob Gronkowski, NE
39 Andre Johnson, HOU
40 Matthew Stafford, DET
41 Keenan Allen, SD
42 Frank Gore, SF
43 DeSean Jackson, WAS
44 Michael Floyd, ARI
45 Pierre Garcon, WAS
46 Roddy White, ATL
47 Chris Johnson, NYJ
48 T.Y. Hilton, IND

Evaluation: Questions abound in round 4 due to direct or indirect health issues. Stafford should have a big year, but I really like Kennan Allen at this spot.

Round 5

49 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
50 Ben Tate, CLE
51 Torrey Smith, BAL
52 Steven Jackson, ATL
53 C.J. Spiller, BUF
54 Jordan Cameron, CLE
55 Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
56 Reggie Wayne, IND
57 Fred Jackson, BUF
58 Shane Vereen, NE
59 Marques Colston, NO
60 Percy Harvin, SEA

Evaluation: If you thought round 4 was tough, round 5 is even more difficult. There are a handful of players with very high upside here, such as Cordarrelle and C.J., but I like Cameron quite a bit since Cleveland has the absolute worst WRs ever lined up in professional football.

Round 6

61 Julian Edelman, NE
62 Jeremy Maclin, PHI
63 Eric Decker, NYJ
64 Colin Kaepernick, SF
65 Vernon Davis, SF
66 Wes Welker, DEN
67 Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
68 Trent Richardson, IND
69 Tom Brady, NE
70 Joique Bell, DET
71 Golden Tate, DET
72 Bishop Sankey, TEN

Evaluation: Tom Brady in round 6? It has been a long time since we have seen anything resembling this. I still think I would pass and grab Ryan, Rivers or Cutler in one of the next 3 rounds. I like Sanders if I want a WR here or Bell if I want a RB. He had great numbers last year, even in a split role. That role should continue this year with him getting the red zone work. Plus, Reggie isn’t Mr. Durability.

Round 7

73 Matt Ryan, ATL
74 Jason Witten, DAL
75 Mike Wallace, MIA
76 Kendall Wright, TEN
77 Terrance Williams, DAL
78 Michael Crabtree, SF
79 Ray Rice, BAL
80 Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK
81 Knowshon Moreno, MIA
82 Riley Cooper, PHI
83 Darren McFadden, OAK
84 Nick Foles, PHI

Evaluation: There is a lot of value in this round. I like Mike Wallace to have a solid year with Tannehill growing into his position. Matty Ice has his weapons back. Moreno should assume the #1 RB spot within a few weeks. Cooper, Williams and Wright will all have solid numbers. Enjoy this round as it won’t be this easy for a few rounds.

Round 8

85 Sammy Watkins, BUF
86 Russell Wilson, SEA
87 Stevan Ridley, NE
88 Pierre Thomas, NO
89 Tony Romo, DAL
90 Lamar Miller, MIA
91 Cam Newton, CAR
92 Brandin Cooks, NO
93 Cecil Shorts, JAC
94 Philip Rivers, SD
95 Dwayne Bowe, KC
96 Terrance West, CLE

Evaluation: LOADS of questionable picks here. If you need a QB, Rivers is a must-pick now. I trust Cooks and West as rookies more than Watkins but I would leave Cam and Ridley alone here. Bowe could be a value pick here since KC has no receivers past him.

Round 9

97 Dennis Pitta, BAL
98 Carlos Hyde, SF
99 DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
100 Kyle Rudolph, MIN
101 Jay Cutler, CHI
102 Robert Griffin III, WAS
103 Shonn Greene, TEN
104 Bernard Pierce, BAL
105 Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
106 Greg Olsen, CAR
107 Darren Sproles, PHI
108 Anquan Boldin, SF

Evaluation: This round is a mixture of good and bad. The ceiling on Cutler is sky-high this season but the threat of injury is always sky high with him. Kyle Rudolph should be a solid pick now as is Olsen. Lots of upside with Benjamin, Pitta and Hopkins.

Round 10

109 Jordan Reed, WAS
110 Jeremy Hill, CIN
111 DeAngelo Williams, CAR
112 Danny Woodhead, SD
113 Hakeem Nicks, IND
114 Justin Hunter, TEN
115 James White, NE
116 Martellus Bennett, CHI
117 Mark Ingram, NO
118 Danny Amendola, NE
119 James Jones, OAK
120 Jonathan Stewart, CAR

Evaluation: I have been fooled by Stewart, Amendola and Nicks enough to stay away. There is a lot of value in Hunter, White, Jones and Ingram in this round. Hill should see a nice split of action with Bernard as will Reed and Bennett on teams with lots of other options.

Round 11

121 Greg Jennings, MIN
122 Christine Michael, SEA
123 Marqise Lee, JAC
124 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
125 Zach Ertz, PHI
126 Tre Mason, STL
127 Jordan Matthews, PHI
128 Mike Evans, TB
129 Markus Wheaton, PIT
130 Donald Brown, SD
131 LeGarrette Blount, PIT
132 Steve Smith, BAL

Evaluation: Just when you would expect to be dragging the bottom of the barrel, you will find happiness in a lot of WR options here. This round epitomizes why I stressed a run on RBs early. Lee and Matthews could end up being the primary receiving options on their respective teams. Wheaton, Smith and Evans may also put up significant numbers as should Ertz at the TE position.

Round 12

133 Devonta Freeman, ATL
134 Ladarius Green, SD
135 Andy Dalton, CIN
136 Andre Williams, NYG
137 James Starks, GB
138 Knile Davis, KC
139 Khiry Robinson, NO
140 Rueben Randle, NYG
141 C.J. Anderson, DEN
142 Carson Palmer, ARI
143 Tavon Austin, STL
144 Seattle Seahawks D/ST

Evaluation: Hello Handcuffs! It is always a good idea to back up your studs RBs if they have talented backups. That is the majority of this round. There is always one team that considers themselves smart by choosing the top defense before the inevitable late run. I suppose I can support that over a backup QB.

Round 13

145 Brandon LaFell, NE
146 Josh McCown, TB
147 Ronnie Hillman, DEN
148 Doug Baldwin, SEA
149 Joe Flacco, BAL
150 Jerricho Cotchery, CAR
151 Charles Clay, MIA
152 Kenny Stills, NO
153 Mike James, TB
154 Mike Williams, BUF
164 San Francisco 49ers D/ST
155 Ahmad Bradshaw, IND
156 Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Evaluation: As mentioned in Round 11, you can find solid receiving options in these late rounds. The Patriots have no set number 1 WR and LaFell could easily assume that role. Carolina is starting fresh at WR and Cotchery has the most seniority. Seattle showed that they believe in Baldwin by giving him a contract to earn and Stills showed decent rapport with Brees last season, but you can’t expect consistent production from him.   

Round 14

157 Brian Hartline, MIA
158 Mohamed Sanu, CIN
159 Andrew Hawkins, CLE
160 Kenbrell Thompkins, NE
161 Carolina Panthers D/ST
162 Denver Broncos D/ST
163 Lance Dunbar, DAL
165 Antonio Gates, SD
166 Dwayne Allen, IND
167 Robert Woods, BUF
168 Michael Vick, NYJ

Evaluation: Bottom of the barrel, we find ye here. Hartline, Thompkins and Hawkins are well worth a flier here if you have room for an extra WR. Other than that grab a backup or think about dipping into the pool of defenses.

Round 15

169 Stephen Gostkowski, NE
170 New England Patriots D/ST
171 Houston Texans D/ST
172 Cincinnati Bengals D/ST
173 Arizona Cardinals D/ST
174 Dri Archer, PIT
175 Matt Bryant, ATL
176 Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST
177 Buffalo Bills D/ST
178 Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
179 Justin Tucker, BAL
180 St. Louis Rams D/ST

Evaluation: Get a defense. They are pretty thin this year.

Round 16

181 Steven Hauschka, SEA
182 Chris Ivory, NYJ
183 Mason Crosby, GB
184 Phil Dawson, SF
185 Adam Vinatieri, IND
186 Baltimore Ravens D/ST
187 Nick Folk, NYJ
188 Robbie Gould, CHI
189 Dan Bailey, DAL
190 Greg Zuerlein, STL
191 Nate Freese, DET
192 Nick Novak, SD

Evaluation: Get a kicker. You need to start one.

2014 Fantasy Football Leagues

We would normally be gearing up for the NFL Draft right now. However, due to Radio City Music Hall scheduling a musical called Heart & Lights, the draft has been pushed back to May. The NFL could have easily found another hosting location, but it is pretty easy to discern that they have been looking for a convenient excuse to push the draft back. It is widely believed that this move is permanent. Maybe it gives the teams more time to evaluate players, make trades or shorten the time before camp opens to put pressure on the players to sign and get to work. For us, it just means another month of draft projections and far too much air time for Mel Kiper and Todd Mcshay.

As far as fantasy football goes, we still have plenty of time to evaluate how drafted players will project on their new teams and training camp and pre-season games are still on the same schedule. Now that NCAA hoops is over, we are in that lull period before summer where MLB is just starting and the NHL and NBA begin their second season called the Playoffs. We will be well into planning our draft strategies when those second seasons mercifully come to an end.

At MFS, we are finishing up our off-season changes for the 2014 football season. Aside from some cosmetic changes, we have some big changes afoot at MFS. The highlighted changes are:

• Drag & Drop functionality on Fantasy league rosters and Confidence Pool rankings
• More push notifications on league activity
• The ability to hide leagues and pools that have ended for an individual or as a whole
• A new Open Leagues page to list all MFS leagues with openings as well as any Private leagues and pools that desire to opt in to advertise their openings
• And our biggest change: Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Playoff Leagues!

Check in on or after June 1st to register your 2014 leagues and pools and just into one or more of our many Public fantasy leagues.

2013 NFL Win Projections

This is an interesting season. The AFC division races will primarily be over with by the mid-point of the season, outside of the AFC North, and the NFC division races will come down to the last week of the season, at least according to the projections that I put together. I didn't really step out on a limb for my Super Bowl champ, though deciding between Denver, San Francisco and Atlanta was difficult. For wagering purposes, the Under on Wins for Miami, Jacksonville, the Jets, San Diego and Oakland look real good. For Overs, Houston, Cincinnati and New Orleans look real tasty.

East	Bill	Book		East	Bill	Book
New England	10	11		NY Giants	9	9
Miami	7	8		Dallas	9	8.5
Buffalo	6	6.5		Wash	8	8.5
NY Jets	4	6.5		Philly	7	7.5
North				North
Cincy	10	8.5		GB	10	10.5
Pittsburgh	9	9		Chicago	9	8.5
Baltimore	8	8.5		Detroit	7	8
Cleveland	6	6		Minny	7	7.5
South				South
Houston	12	10.5		Atlanta	11	10
Indy	9	8.5		NO	11	9
Tenn	6	6.5		Carolina	7	7
Jax	3	5		TB	6	7.5
West				West
Denver	12	11.5		SF	11	11
KC	8	7.5		Seattle	10	10.5
San Diego	6	7.5		St. Louis	8	7.5
Oakland	4	5.5		Arizona	6	5.5

AFC Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis
AFC Championship game: Denver over Houston

NFC Division winners: New York Giants, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco
NFC Wildcards: New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Championship game: Atlanta over San Francisco

Super Bowl Champs: Denver