Saturday, December 26, 2015

NFL Playoff Chase

Fans love a good battle between multiple teams vying for the last playoff spots. There are 3 chase scenarios in play right now, excluding jockeying for positioning in the playoffs, and, sadly, only one of them truly bears watching. I have long railed against the ineptitude of the NFC East and would like to see that division excluded this year, but that can’t happen. So, Philly still controls their own destiny by winning out and reaching a magical .500 record (though 7-9 could still win it). That is the same squad that was dismantled at home by worthy playoff spot owner, Arizona. At least, they face Washington this week, which is their main competition in the race, though the putrid Giants have an outside chance. A tie would be a fitting final score.
Last week had AFC South foes; Houston and Indy, doing battle in Indianapolis and the Texans won their first game there, unconvincingly, to seize control of the division. With a rotating band of journeyman starting QBs dealing with injuries, it is easy to see Houston limp across the regular season finish line and continue a pattern of watching division winners get pummeled at home by a superior wild card team.

The last battle is far more exhilarating and heart-breaking at the same time. The Jets, Chiefs and Steelers are battling for the two AFC wildcard spots and none can afford to lose a game. It is a shame, but none of the three match up in the final two weeks so they could all win out and leave the 11-5 Jets on the outside looking in. It is sad that the NFL playoffs could easily feature two teams at 8-8 or worse as division winners and an 11-5 team without a playoff game. The Steelers made this chase all more exciting with a thrilling come-from-behind win over the top defense in the league. If the Steelers stay healthy, their offense is the most explosive in the league and can easily outpace the points that their mediocre defense allows and run the table….barring any injuries to the QB and RB positions. Fun times!

Speaking of fun times, fantasy football joy was found last week in the advanced calculus numbers produced by QB Cam Newton, RB David Johnson and WR Antonio Brown (especially in PPR leagues). HUGE performances! Of course, there is always a flip side. Starting the likes of QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Eddie Lacy and WR Calvin Johnson ended the season of many fantasy trophy hopefuls. Speaking of huge days, how many people put 4-TD Danny Woodhead on their bench? Yep, me too. I had a premonition that San Diego was going to have a big day on the ground and started Melvin Gordon in a few leagues. I guess I read them tea leaves wrong, eh?

Anyone who started Odell Beckham Jr were rewarded with a good day, especially considering that he had a goose egg at half and should have been bounced out of the game in Q3. That performance was embarrassing. No wonder countries that embrace soccer mock our game of football. For a team game, Beckham sure embraces ME over WE.
Who is happy about the injuries to running backs in Seattle? Doug Baldwin, that is who. I thought Seattle gave him a big contract 2-3 years ago based on his production as a pro that far, but, he has more than made up for those lost days and then some. He hasn’t added as much to his future bottom line as QB Kirk Cousins has, but 10 TDs over 4 games is pretty remarkable and only done once in NFL history and it was by some guy named Jerry Rice.

For those getting paid in fantasy football playoffs, it is time to bolster your rosters. At least you have minimal competition at this point in your league!

QB Teddy Bridgewater (MINN) – assuming Kirk Cousins is taken in your league. If not, grab him. Philly’s pass D is horrible. Of course, Teddy’s competition is on par with the Eagles. The Bears are a shade better and he just tore them apart last week. With AP running on a sore ankle, I expect to see Minnesota take to the air a bit more this week as the Giants are a sieve.

RB Christine Michael (SEA) – Michael embodies how everything is rolling for the Seahawks right now. Seattle booted him early this season and he failed to contribute to the backfields of Dallas and Washington and was dismissed only to return to Seattle and lead the backfield less than a week after signing. I had my doubts about Bryce Brown last week but I certainly didn’t expect much production out of Michael. With the way the Seattle passing game is going, their running plays are going against few men in the box so Michael should put up decent numbers the next two weeks.

RB: Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR) – the Panthers drafted Payne this year but haven’t given him much opportunity to prove himself. With RB Jonathan Stewart out last week, he got the bulk of the work against a decent Giants run defense and did pretty good. I expect the Panthers to take it slowly with Stewart and save him for the playoffs so I expect them to dab on more Payne to see what he can deliver.

WR Markus Wheaton (PITT) – Wheaton’s contribution early in the season was to primarily fill in a spot until WR Martavis Bryant returned from suspension and then to show up in the end zone and congratulate Bryant or Brown after a TD catch. Well, a few weeks ago, the Steelers noticed how he was always open and decided to share the receiving wealth a bit more and he has delivered. The Steelers will be playing pitch-and-catch versus Baltimore this weekend and Wheaton is in line for another nice day.

TE Tyler Kroft (CIN) – in leagues that I lost Tyler Eifert in last week, I decided to give Vernon Davis one last chance. Ugh. WHY? His fourth quarter drop optimized why Kaep lost confidence in him in San Fran. I am done as well. Since Eifert is still in the NFL’s concussion protocol, it looks like Kroft will be lining up again this weekend. Rookies and little used QBs often call the tight end’s number often and QB AJ McCarron followed that pattern last week. Denver will be blanketing AJ Green and Marvin Jones this weekend so I expect an even higher Kroft usage. 

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