Wednesday, December 3, 2014

No Such Thing as a Sure Thing

Bet against the Steelers every time you see a “sure” thing with them. I thought the loss to the Jets was inexplicable, but losing at home, after a Bye week, against the same Saints who normally never win outdoors especially in late November and who had just lost an unheard of three straight games at home under Sean Payton. Also, they dominated this game with Jimmy Graham being a statistical non-factor. Of course, he should get some credit for being the focal point of the defense and giving Kenny Stills plenty of room to get open. Wow, Stills has really taken advantage of Brandin Cooks’ injury. When you least expect it in the NFL, expect it!

Also, go against bad teams with momentum. After Oakland won their first game of the year in a huge upset versus Kansas City, they were beaten worse than SMU would have been last Sunday. The Rams scored the first 5 times that they had the ball and averaged 4.5 plays per scoring drive. Oakland used to be good for at least putting up a late TD or two to make a few of their players useful in fantasy football. Not last Sunday. They are happy with their one win and a paycheck. The Niners will be happy to see them submitting this coming weekend. The stat that I found amazing was that, prior to facing the Rams, the Raiders QBs had only been sacked 13 times this season. Make that 19 now…and counting.

I feel bad for anyone who has to guess which Tampa or New England running back to play. I assume that the Bucs are giving Doug Martin the rock in hopes that he does well enough to generate an off-season trade request. Of course, they have to be concerned about the lack of production from Charles Sims in his limited chances. As far as New England goes, just when you figure that Jonas Gray is out of the doghouse and/or LeGarrette Blount is now the RB1, Brandon Bolden gets a load of love and gets the only Pats rushing TD.

Other Week 13 Oddities
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown 20 TDs versus 0 INTs at home this season. Needless to say, they have not lost any of those games. Jordy Nelson has 7 of those TDs and all have gone for 25 yards or longer. Very nice if you are playing in a league that offers bonus points for longer TDs or playing in a TD Only Daily Fantasy Football league.
  • TE Anthony Fasano and RB Jamaal Charles each caught a TD against Denver, extending the Chief’s season-long drought of WR TD receptions. 
  • Colt McCoy threw for 393 yards. Pierre Garcon, playing against his original team, had 3 receptions for 9 yards. Yuck. So much for showing up against your former team. He did have 9 Targets, which shows you how meaningless that category really is.
  • Though he has a few former teams, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick sure didn’t look rusty when he dialed into the Six TD Club against his former employers in Tennessee last Sunday. Loads of points on the waiver wire there.
  • Atlanta took one weapon into battle versus Arizona last Sunday, Julio Jones, and Arizona had no defense for it, even with the great Patrick Peterson shadowing Jones. That is the same Peterson that claims that he is as good as Derrelle Revis. I did not see the game but I have to assume that DC Todd Bowles and HC Bruce Arians noticed that Julio owned Peterson and provided some form of help instead of leaving him hanging out to dry in embarrassment. I hate to see another great season for the Cardinals go to waste as they miss the playoffs, but it is trending n that direction. They better take care of KC this weekend.
  • Here we go. Johnny Manziel got into the game versus Buffalo in the 4th quarter when it was over and scored a TD. Whoopie. Of course, he had to do his stupid money gesture. Me-First gestures always make sense in a blowout, don't they? Of course, LeBron has to chime in about Manziel’s readiness since he is such a student of the game and his opinion on personnel really matters. This is how I feel when I see the tide turning for Manziel like it did for Tebow in Denver. 
  • How about those Giants?! Up 21-0 against a Jacksonville team that was playing inspired Raiders’ football. Eli decided to bait them into playing by fumbling to them in the end zone for an easy TD. Well, that was enough to wake the sleeping Giant-killers and have them rise up and give the Giants their 7th loss in a row. Not much joy in the Big Apple again this year. 
  • Speaking of the Big Apple, you could sit out in the rain watching the Jets lose again on Monday night or head to the local theater. Now, everyone has that choice every game day. In this case though, you would have paid more for your movie ticket than you would have for the Jets game.
  • J.J. Watt is such a machine. Add 2 sacks, a forced fumble and another offensive TD to his amazing 2014 season.
Fantasy playoffs are here for 80% of fantasy football  leagues. There are still some traditionalists, count me as one, that enjoy playing all 17 weeks. In-game change leagues make that so much easier. For those still playing, even if it is in your Toilet Bowl, there are a host of players available this week. 

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (Hou) – as mentioned above, he showed no rust and stuck it to the Titans last week. He will come back down to Earth, but no QB has a more favorable set of matchups to end the season. He is startable over many QB1s. Jake Locker is another QB that is available and has good matchups ahead. He is an injury risk though so tread lightly. Our recommendation of Colt McCoy from last week still stands and I would take him over Locker if I had to choose.

RB: Doug Martin (TB) – the Bucs have determined that Charles Sims is not ready and want Martin to showcase himself so they can move him in the off-season. He has severely underperformed all season, but you can’t be choosy on a thin waiver wire when needing a RB.

WR: Kenny Stills (NO) – back-to-back big weeks has Stills in a must-start position with great matchups ahead and Drew looking his way often more than any other Saints’ receiver.

WR: Stedman Bailey (STL) – since Shaun Hill has taken over and the receiving corps have taken a hit, Stedman has been steady with 12/189/1 over the past 2 games, including a 100-yard effort in the first half against Oakland last week. 

WR: Nate Washington (TENN) – the Titans have been erratic this season under center and Washington has often been a forgotten man, but they have just lost WR Justin Hunter for the season and are inserting Jake Locker back under center. Washington’s best games the past few years have been with Locker as QB.

TE: Jordan Reed (WASH) – Reed finally shook off the injury bug and got a boost by the return of McCoy. Colt relies heavily on Reed and will be throwing often in all of his games since the Skins defense is terrible and they will be playing from behind in all cases. This week’s matchup versus a stingy Rams’ defense is not ideal though.

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