Tuesday, December 23, 2014

No Luck In Dallas

I am not talking about the Cowboys, of course. Many a championship game was lost with Andrew Luck under center last weekend. In what was expected to turn into a shootout was a flat-out rout. There were not even garbage time points to pick up. For Andrew Luck owners, you can turn to Aaron Rodgers owners, who lost out the previous week on his no-show in Buffalo, and get some sympathy. His gopher on the day deflated owners by association who had started Dwayne Allen and Donte Moncrief in hopes of picking up the points that were normally directed at T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne. Drew Brees owners fared a bit better by barely reaching double digits but sure as hell didn't like the call on the Jimmy Graham goal line fumble and on the fumble on the last play of the game. It was a brutal way for some owners to complete their season.

Luck and Brees were not the only Duds on Sunday, but it is no fun to list them all out. It is part of the game and the reason you should always try to have a balanced lineup. You can reflect on your lineup and make excuses on why you should have started QB Ryan Tannehill over Andrew Luck, but, without a crystal ball or time machine, you would never make that decision, even with T.Y. Hilton out in advance of the game. Guys flame out at the wrong time, but, if you play this game enough, you will win games like this too.

Other Week 16 items of note:
  • I can't tout In-game changes enough after a week like this. Having the ability to change out players at half or at the end of a quarter would have given owners the opportunity to swap in a different player for Luck, Romo, Murray,.. at half or end of Q3 when the game was effectively over and you knew backups would finish the game out.
  • Week 17 has all games on Sunday, which is a first for the year, and would normally make the decision on which games to watch difficult, but with a lot of backups in line to play; Brandon Weeden, Matt Hasselbeck, Luke McCown,...you can draw a line through those games, even if you are in a 17-week fantasy league.
  • I knew Buffalo was going to be a bit risky on offense at Oakland since they are not too dynamic to begin with and have troubles on the road, especially three time zones away, but how their defense stifled Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers and got taken apart by Oakland befuddles me. I was really pulling for them to make the playoffs and they would have had a better opportunity this weekend with New England having wrapped up the top AFC seed.
  • Justin Forsett provided a reminder to also consider veterans who have assumed a more prominent role as a potential for burn out at the end of the season. We always consider rookies who started the season as the top back as a potential for hitting the Rookie Wall, but that wall should be extended to veterans too, as Forsett's last two games have proven.
  • The Saints have lost 5 straight at home and needed to win one of them to make the playoffs...and many of the games really weren't that close. So much for the mystique.
  • I wonder if NFL owners will finally stop throwing insane money at QBs. It was foolish for the Ravens to pay Joe Flacco like they did, but with Colin Kaepernick and Jay Cutler following in his underperforming footsteps, you would hope a reality check would kick in. Flacco was facing a bad Houston secondary and laid an egg. Until a late flurry of completions, he had fewer completions than fingers on his throwing hand when the team needed him the most.
If you are still playing in week 17 and need to replace hurt or benched players, look for any Minnesota Viking to start with; QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Matt Asiata, WR Greg Jennings or Charles Johnson, or TE Chase Ford. If not available, look for any of the following.

QB: Brandon Weeden (DAL) - with the Cowboys all but locked into the 3rd seed, there is a good chance that Tony Romo sits on Sunday. If you own him, you want to grab Weeden. The Redskins defense is terrible so Weeden will have the opportunity to post good numbers, even if his targets are Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley. You should make this move unless you can grab Eli and Teddy B in your league.

RB: Jonas Gray (NE) - with nothing to play for, I would expect Gray to get the bulk of the Patriots carries this weekend. They have ridden him for almost 40 carries previously so I would expect to see him carry the load this weekend against a mediocre Bills' run defense.

RB: Brandon Oliver (SD) - with Ryan Mathews out, Oliver is the man once again. He has done little since his first stint as SD's RB1, but the Chiefs' run defense is nothing to be feared and we can't be too choosy when filling out a line up this weekend.

WR: Eddie Royal (SD) - with Keenan Allen out, Royal re-assumed his early season role as a WR2 in week 16 and it paid off in a big way for his owners. With the Chargers vying for a playoff berth, he becomes a must-pick up player this week.

WR: Danny Amendola (NE) - Amendola was the second coming of Wes Welker when the Pats signed him two years ago from St Louis. Injuries and Julian Edelman have kept him from the playing field. With Edelman hurt and a meaningless game this weekend, it is the perfect time for Amendola to get involved in the gameplan.

TE: Charles Clay (MIA) - healthy again, Clay has been a big part of the Dolphins offense the past two weeks. The Fins have little to play for this week, but they want to end up with a winning record and have no interest in handing the Jets a cheap W.

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