Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Unlucky Seven

Week 7 was not a lucky week in many ways, for owners, coaches, players and fans. The sport lost Bud Adams and Bum Phillips. Both were key members of the sport back when it was a true contest of skills and didn't suffer from the human growth and resulting wave of changes to prevent these behemoths from injuries themselves that consume the game nowadays. Sadly, the rule changes have not slowed down the injuries but have definitely dulled and changed the game. I cannot understand the unsportsman-like penalty on New England for pushing a lineman during the Jets' field goal attempt when you see players constantly pushing a scrum of players forward when a WR or RB is stood up at the end of a play. 

Fans in Philly definitely lost out if they watched that debacle against the Cowboys. I was, fortunately, in a position to turn away and watch all of the other games...happily staring blankly at the Chargers-Jags game instead of turning to check in on how Philly was doing. For the non-Eagles fan, it had to be entertaining to see Matt Barkley toss 3 INTs in the 4th qtr after Nick Foles was concussed. I wasn't sure that was possible until I read about it later. Two years ago, he could have been the first QB taken. If that wasn't bad enough, how about that Monday night game?! The only entertaining part of it was Mike Tirico. After watching about 2/3rds of that "showcase" event, he couldn't hold back and delivered multiple hysterical observations about the talent on the field. Good stuff, Mike! I don't think anyone was shocked by the performance after watching Josh Freeman play at Tampa and these two teams play all year. It was as predictable as Kim Kardashian dying her hair blonde. Based on her history, I am shocked that this didn't happen long ago.

Players and coaches took it the worst though. Players due to their injuries and coaches due to the early end to some of their seasons. Last week's games saw the end of the season for Sam Bradford and any long-shot odds that the Rams had at the playoffs. Jermichael Finley felt a bit of paralyses, which not only will most likely end his season, but have him contemplating retirement. Reggie Wayne is lost for the season with a freak knee injury when he was wide open. It isn't fair when a well-liked player with such a long history of injury-free years is lost like that. In Washington, not only did the Bears take their annual shot to their QB (Cutler is out with 3-4 weeks with a groin injury) but also lost their defensive leader with Lance Briggs out for 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury. These injuries definitely put the Bears' season on the brink.

With all these injuries, the waiver wire is a busy place this week.

QB: Jake Locker (TENN) - Locker is off this week but returns to a favorable matchup versus St Louis. He had a monster game in his return and will put up very nice numbers the rest of the season as long as he stays healthy.

RB: Mike James (TB) - the injury to Doug Martin was not listed above since he has single-handedly wrecked my running game in many, many leagues. I don't expect James to have any more success than Martin so this is not a strong recommendation. I would grab Chris Ivory (NYJ) if he is available, but I would grab James over Peyton Hillis. Hillis looked like he was still pulling a plow through his soybean fields as he lumbered downfield Monday night.

WR: Jarrett Boykin (GB) - Boykin looked good last week for The Pack and should stayed involved for the rest of the season with injuries to Finley, Randall Cobb and James Jones...even after Jones comes back.

WR: Darrius Heyward-Bey (IND) - with no running game, Andrew Luck will continue to throw a lot. T.Y. Hilton is the WR1 but Bey is now the definite WR2. Let's see if he shakes his case of the dropsies.

TE: Jordan Reed (WASH) - I was late to this party as I wasn't sure if a healthy Fred David would share TE targets. Forget that, Reed is a beast and was unstoppable against Chicago last weekend. It looks like he is Next in the ever-burgeoning list of big pass-catching athletes at the TE position.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Moments Of Trepidation

At the end of 30 glorious minutes, the Jaguars were a 2-point conversion away from being tied against the heaviest first-half favorites in NFL history (20-point spread). Give 'em credit, they showed a lot of pride and will actually win a game or two this year, I think. From a fantasy perspective, James Blackmon was a beast, even without a TD. 14 catches for 190 yards is a monster day in all formats. Some of that would have gone to Cecil Shorts if he weren't hurt on the 3rd play of the game and damaging loads of owners not playing in in-game change leagues. Even MoJo had a nice day with 71 yards and a TD. Denver has to be more worried about their D now than they were after getting shredded by Dallas last week.

Speaking of fantasy stats, who expected Stevan Ridley to have the 4th highest RB point total this week and Brandon Jacobs to have the 5th? You can't really fault yourself for leaving them on your bench, if you owned them. However, what about starting Jimmy Graham and getting a goose egg when Joseph Fauria turned all 3 of his catches from Detroit in Cleveland into TDs? Unbelievably, he is tied for the 5th-most TD catches by a tight end at 5 on SEVEN catches! I didn't see his first two TDs but I wouldn't be surprised if he did other white-man dance-floor moves after hitting the end zone on those too. I don't get it, but it is kinda funny in an embarrassing sort of way.

Some big names got hurt on Sunday. What the Hell was Aaron Rodgers complaining about on the Randall Cobb hit? Matt Elam couldn't have known how Cobb's legs would be planted when he hit them. I guess he wants to equate the game to baseball and literally expect players to have a baseball strike zone as the target area for all football players to be hit in. I hate to see injuries but it is virtually impossible to get a clean tackle nowadays. Injuries to Danny Amendola, DeMarco Murray and Matt Schaub were not surprising with their track records.

Other thoughts:
  • RGIII's passes looked a lot like Mark Sanchez's. There were a lot of drops, but, when the passes got to the targeted receivers, they surely weren't too tight. In a crappy NFC East, Kirk Cousins could lead this team to a division title.
  • Eli Manning....hee-hee-hee
  • The Chiefs are beating bad teams, but they are toying with them until late in the game. They actually let the Raiders think that they had a shot at a win, much like Tennessee the week before, and then decided to tighten their D, take the shackles off of Jamal Charles and to pull away with a win and a cover.
  • The Vikings and the Texans could easily be starting their 3rd QB of the year this week in what will undoubtedly be another loss.
  • Welcome back to reality, J-E-T-S. Week 6 started what will be a 7 or more game losing streak.
  • Tom Brady is slipping. Seriously Tom, you needed three possessions to get the winning score. It still amazes me that there were 5 possessions in 209 seconds with only 4 clock stops (3 timeouts and the 2 minute warnings).

When it comes to this week's waiver wire, it is pretty thin unless I rehash last week's recommendations, sans Chad Henne:

QB: Nick Foles (PHIL) - Now you know why Chip Kelly was trying to keep Michael Vick in the pocket instead of scrambling around the field. With him on the shelf with a hammy issue, Foles gets another shot. He looked good coming off the bench last week. He could stick around awhile.
RB: Zac Stacy (STL) - Jeff Fisher is at his wits end with his running game. After starting the year with three seemingly capable backs on the roster, he has seen little production. The Rams need a running game to help Bradford and their D out. 
WR: Terrance Williams (DAL) - Williams has earned Romo's trust with Miles Austin injured (as usual) and has another big day ahead against a weak defense in what should be another shootout for Big D.
WR: Keenan Allen (SD) - Malcom Floyd is out for the year and Vincent Brown is very inconsistent. Allen is a rookie, but is a polished rookie and looked damn good the last two weekends. He could put up similar numbers each week going forward.
TE: Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) - His long-rumored talent is finally coming out. It is hard to expect weekly consistency with an inconsistent offense, but he should factor into the gameplan going forward. The Jets have a stockpile of injured WRs, rookie QBs love throwing to TEs and Kellen Winslow III is suspended. That is a good recipe for success. Don't expect a lot of catches each week, but he showed that he can get open in the middle of the field.
Adding a few due to new injuries:
RB: Joseph Randle (DAL) - I wasn't particularly impressed with his performance on Sunday, but he did get a TD and the waiver wire is depleted of RBs at this point in the season.
WR: Jarrett Boykin (GB) - Randall Cobb is out for 6+ weeks and James Jones is out for a week or two. Though GB is working out their running game, Rodgers is still gonna put the ball in the air and someone needs to step in for the injured receivers.

Some Guys Have All The Luck

Brian Hoyer, we hardly knew ye. Poor guy. He got his break as an NFL starting QB and turned Cleveland's 2013 fate completely around and then was lost for the year with a torn ACL. Whether it is an injury or just breaks on the way the ball bounces, some guys have that moment of magic happen when they need it most and other guys have that Kiss of Death happen. Just look at my favorite punching bag; Eli Manning. He gets credit for beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl when he chucked up a blind Hail Mary that David Tyree pinned on his head. 75% of other QBs would have found that exact same pass picked off. No matter that it was the Giants defense that truly won that game, Eli unduly gets the credit.
Poor Tony Romo gets stuck being the holder for a game-winning playoff field goal in his first appearance and mishandles it and gets branded a choker. Of course, that branding is aided by  not being able to win the Big games in crunch time. He played flawlessly last week until they had the ball on what could be their last drive and his own lineman helped cause an errant throw that was intercepted on a great play by Denver. No matter that he tossed 5 TDs and over 500 yards. Dallas lost on that INT. Of course, Eli has cost the Giants numerous games this year with his 12 picks, but he gets the benefit of the doubt cuz he is a "winner" and Romo is a "loser". Not true, but that is the perception cuz some guys have all the luck.
Speaking of unlucky, I am not sure if anyone outside of the Lions' locker room has any inclination that Megatron would be de-activated before a huge game in Green Bay. Flabbergasted. It took a lot of people down who did not know and don't play in in-game change leagues that could have helped salvage part of the day for them at their WR1 position.
Mason Crosby? Really? Normally kickers on high-scoring teams always have a place on a fantasy roster. Crosby was only owned on 42% of our leagues last week and started in a mere 17%. Word has it that 65% of those were Packers fans and the other 35% were Detroit fans who had given up on their fantasy season and hoped to have Crosby on their squad when he cost the Packers the game.
Carolina-Arizona was the only other NFL game being played against the Dallas-Denver game. I don't have it, but I would suspect that the people who switch games for the Red Zone channel took the afternoon off.
Matt Schaub had as many fantasy points last Sunday as Mark Sanchez.
Now, on to the waiver wire:
QB: Nick Foles (PHIL) - Now you know why Chip Kelly was trying to keep Michael Vick in the pocket instead of scrambling around the field. With him on the shelf with a hammy issue, Foles gets another shot. He looked good coming off the bench last week. He could stick around awhile.
QB: Chad Henne (JAX) - Hey, don't laugh. If you need a one week fill-in, Henne could be your man. With Blackmon back, he has 2 solid receivers to throw to and they will be behind all game so he could have a monster game, statistically, against a weak Broncos defense. Who woulda thought you could be considering this a few weeks ago?!
RB: Zac Stacy (STL) - Jeff Fisher is at his wits end with his running game. After starting the year with three seemingly capable backs on the roster, he has seen little production. The Rams need a running game to help Bradford and their D out. Stacy did enough last week to warrant another shot against a Houston defense that let the Niners run roughshod over them
WR: Terrance Williams (DAL) - Williams has earned Romo's trust with Miles Austin injured (as usual) and has another big day ahead against a weak Redskins defense in what should be another shootout in Big D.
WR: Keenan Allen (SD) - Malcom Floyd is out for the year and Ryan Mathews is out with a concussion, which is kind of irrelevant as the Chargers haven't tried much power football this year. Allen is a rookie, but is a polished rookie and looked damn good last weekend. He could put up similar numbers each week going forward.
TE: Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) - His long-rumored talent finally came out last week on MNF. It is hard to expect weekly consistency, but he should factor into the gameplan going forward. The Jets have a stockpile of injured WRs, rookie QBs love throwing to TEs and Kellen Winslow III is a bit banged up. That is a good recipe for success. Don't expect a lot of catches each week, but he showed that he can get open in the middle of the field.

Quarter Pole

Most teams hit the quarter-pole mark last week and some of those continued on and hit the wall again. Week 4 had the normal selection of upsets, good teams stumbling and the few great teams playing as expected, even if they needed to spot an opponent a 20-3 lead. At least the list of Top Performers regained some normalcy with Brees, Manning, and A.P. hitting their stride with big weeks, each in a winning way. A few takeaways from Week 4:
  • The defenses in Kansas City and Indianapolis are legit. The Colts faced the Jags and dominated them, but it comes on the heels of a west coast trip where they shut down the Niners. Traveling back and forth across the US will weaken the heartiest of teams. It was a very nice follow-up performance. Another test lies ahead this week at home versus Seattle.
  • Victor Cruz is the only Giant worth starting and even that is suspect with the league's most overrated and over-exposed QB getting worse weakly; I mean weekly. Against Philly's D this week, I would normally slide in David Wilson, Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Myers, but I would only do that if the rest of my position players were on Bye.
  • Speaking of overrated QBs, nice 5 INT effort in Buffalo, 20-million dollar Joe Flacco. When you are in a close game and your running game has mustered a meek 24 yards, giving the ball away to the other team will not win you any friends on the defense.
  • Welcome back, J-E-T-S! We knew you weren't far away from flashing those true colors again. After making the Titans appear like their namesake this past Sunday, a road game in a hostile venue against a very good, albeit, desperate team, is a recipe for a blow out. I have no idea what scheduling genius thought that Atlanta vs the Jets was a good idea on MNF, but he will be fired after this upcoming shellacking.
  • When the Bears are not generating turnovers and turning them into points, their defense is borderline overrated.
  • While Seattle may toy with a foe, Denver has no interest. They are pissed off about losing to Baltimore in the playoffs last season and are taking it out on every team they face.
  • I can't figure out how New England keeps winning. Of course, if I start to buy into them, that guarantees a win by Cincinnati this weekend.
  • Was ready to buy into Miami before Monday's game if they showed me anything.
Loads of injuries in week 4. Some injuries will cost some players a game or more, others will just slow them down. Couple that with Bye weeks and it is a very busy week on the waiver wire.

QB: Brian Hoyer (CLE) - Two games started and 18 fantasy points delivered in each game. Say what you will, but this kid has come to play and has a home matchup against Buffalo (remember what Geno Smith did against Buffalo and not Joe Flacco).

RB: Rashad Jennings (OAK) - Jennings did not do much with his chance last season in Jax with MoJo hurt, but desperate times call for desperate measures. McFadden hurt his hammy, again, so he will be Out on Sunday, though not announced yet, and Marcel Reece hurt his knee in the same game after taking over for DMac last Sunday.

RB: Andre Ellington (AZ) - Cards' coach, Bruce Arians has reversed his assessment of Rashard Mendenhall and sounds like he is kicking him aside and is ready to move on with the fresh legs of Andre Ellington. The Cards need a spark in the backfield so Ellington could grab the job and hold it for the remainder of the season.

WR: Alshon Jeffery (CHI) - With Brandon Marshall getting seemingly 90% of Jay Cutler's expressionless Looks, Jeffery went undrafted in many leagues. It appears that the Bears will be involved in many shootouts this season and Jeffery has worked himself into a bigger piece of the offensive pie each week.

WR: Robert Woods (BUF) - Already mentioned as a waiver wire pickup earlier this season, grab him now if available. He was a forgotten stud WR in his senior year at USC, but, it looks like E.J. Manuel paid attention to his skillset from afar at FSU. He can be much more consistent, and much quieter, than Stevie Johnson, so I am not surprised that he is clicking with Manuel.

TE: Sean McGrath (KC) - QB Alex Smith loves the short game and always liked his tight end. With all other TEs beat up on KC, they tried out McGrath's hands last week and liked the results (5/64/1). He could be useful again this week if you need a fill-in.

Studs Are Duds

The old mantra about starting your studs is ignored quickly in fantasy football. Look at the week 3 performances of players with the top ADPs, such as C.J Spiller, Arian Foster and Ray Rice,  and you’ll cringe. Then look at the top overall performers from week 3 and you’ll see players such as Jake Locker, Johnathan Franklin and Jordan Cameron filling up the stat board. These are the kind of weeks that occur every year and have pushed me to play in multiple leagues so I can vary my team lineups.
 

How in the world does Minnesota play so well in Chicago in week 2 and then return home and lose against a Cleveland team starting backups at QB and in the backfield with a starting WR just off a 2-game suspension? Consistency in the NFL is about as reliable as intelligence from a Kardashian and almost as watchable at times. You can safely predict the performance of 3 teams right now; Denver, Seattle and Jacksonville.

How many self-proclaimed elite QBs are winless on the year and have suffered the league’s only shutout? It is criminal that Eli has more rings than Peyton and Peyton has gifted him with millions in endorsements that his non-personality never would have won on his own. It is a fun time in NYC when the Yanks fail to make the playoffs and Geno Smith and the Jets are making the Giants look like an FBS team. The NBA can’t get started soon enough for Big Apple sports fans.


With Bye weeks setting in for the next 9 weeks, the waiver wire is becoming more valuable for replacing players on Bye, injured or underperforming. As usual, there are a host of players to roll the dice on this week and hope that they don't crap out.

QB: Mike Glennon (TB) - somewhere around week 12 last year, Josh Freeman became Chuck Knoblauch and hasn’t been able to throw since. The Bucs were smart enough to grab a solid QB in the draft to grow into the position. Well, it has been a short growth season as he has been plucked and inserted into the starting position this week. He has some nice weapons, albeit a bit dinged up weapons, in Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and Doug Martin, came from a pro-style offense, is 6’7” and has a cannon for an arm, so he could put together a nice season. 

RB: Jason Snelling (ATL) - with Steven Jackson out for a few more weeks and a few dinged up WRs, Atlanta decided that they should employ a thunder-and-lightning approach with Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers and did so with great success. Grab him and start him if you have a RB hole to fill this weekend.

WR: Donnie Avery (KC) - KC's short-pass offense is a perfect fit for Avery. With Alex Smith preferring to look his way over Dwayne Bowe, Avery will rack up catches and yards until he gets hurt. It is hard to expect many TDs though.

WR: Ryan Broyles (DET) - Broyles found a little chemistry with Matthew Stafford last season just before his season ended with a torn ACL. Though the Lions have a running game this year, Stafford is still putting plenty of balls in the air. Nate Burleson is out for a substantial amount of time and no TEs are factoring into the gameplan, so Broyles has a great opportunity to find that chemistry again.

Panic Time?

Two weeks into the season and Panic begins to set in. Before turning on the radio or television this week, I could easily predict what segments would be on sports talk. The one that cracks me up every year is the discussion about 0-2 teams and the likelihood of who can make the playoffs and who will miss out. You will hear the percentages and the history of how many teams have made it over the past decade. While I use numbers quite a bit to justify player value, trade worth and wagers, I also include a review of Why and How they are 0-2. With many teams making the playoffs every year with 7-9 wins, it is not quite a time to panic if you have been on the road both games, faced top echelon teams both games or had a few bad breaks both games.

I don't expect many of these 0-2 teams to have a chance, but, in the case of a team like Jacksonville, they never had a chance. Good teams that are 0-2 should panic as much as borderline 2-0 teams should feel confident. While everyone expected New England to win the AFC East, they are the shakiest 2-0 in recent memory. If they would have played the same schedule as many of these 0-2 teams, they would be keeping company with them instead. Miami will give the Pats a run for the division title even though neither would give the playoffs a run if they were in the NFC West.

Truthfully, none of the 0-2 teams will make the playoffs, though Tampa has a remote chance. They lost 2 games at the wire, but have not looked good at the QB spot. With solid QB play, they really could make the playoffs, but an in-season trade won't happen. If they switch to Mike Glennon soon, they could still make a run with the quality D and offensive talent at RB and WR that they have. Carolina has a team that could make the playoffs if they were in another division and had a softer remaining schedule....and unleashed Cam a bit more. Minnesota is finding out that they used all of their magic up last season. Pittsburgh has no offensive line or running game. Washington and New York Giants have no defense. Cleveland has thrown the towel in on the season already.

When it comes to fantasy, you have a make better chance of making the playoffs at 0-2 than the pros do. The ability to make trades and free agent acquisitions gives us hope. If you are dealing with injuries and/or underperforming players, see if you can trade a top player, such as AP, Peyton, or Victor Cruz for multiple players to fill slots. Also, look to trade players putting up big numbers, such as Michael Vick,  DeSean Jackson or Julio Jones for multiple, albeit lower-level players than the aforementioned proven vets. Unless you are in a deep league, QBs can be replaced from the waiver wire with players such as Sam Bradford and WRs can be replaced with others that could soon be steals, such as Nate Burleson. If you are not ready to do that yet, hit the waiver wire for short-term fixes that could actually turn into long-term solutions. In that pool this week, we have the following players in many leagues:

QB: Alex Smith (KC) - It is good to see Smith pick up with the same reliable game that he had in San Fran. He is averaging 200yds passing, 2 TDs, 40yds rushing per game and no turnovers.

RB: James Stark (GB) - This is a temporary fix as he is a one-week fill-in while Eddie Lacy recovers from his concussion. He had a nice game last week against Washington, but temper your expectations this week against a much better defense, on the road and probably sharing a few carries with other GB backs. RB is always thin on the waiver wire so take what you can get. Bernard Pierce is a better option if some foolish Ray Rice owner neglected to handcuff Pierce to him.

WR: Eddie Royal (SD) - While I didn't buy into Royal after week 1, it is hard to continue ignoring him and his onslaught of TDs even though he has been completely ignored for years. With Michael Floyd still not knowing what day it is, start Royal until Philip Rivers cools down or begins to look at Vincent Brown and Keenan Allen.

TE: Charles Clay (MIA) - Here is a name that escaped our radar in the pre-season, but he is looking like a reliable start (10 catches, 163 yards) so far this season as Ryan Tannehill is preferring an airborne assault over a ground attack.