Saturday, October 19, 2013

Panic Time?

Two weeks into the season and Panic begins to set in. Before turning on the radio or television this week, I could easily predict what segments would be on sports talk. The one that cracks me up every year is the discussion about 0-2 teams and the likelihood of who can make the playoffs and who will miss out. You will hear the percentages and the history of how many teams have made it over the past decade. While I use numbers quite a bit to justify player value, trade worth and wagers, I also include a review of Why and How they are 0-2. With many teams making the playoffs every year with 7-9 wins, it is not quite a time to panic if you have been on the road both games, faced top echelon teams both games or had a few bad breaks both games.

I don't expect many of these 0-2 teams to have a chance, but, in the case of a team like Jacksonville, they never had a chance. Good teams that are 0-2 should panic as much as borderline 2-0 teams should feel confident. While everyone expected New England to win the AFC East, they are the shakiest 2-0 in recent memory. If they would have played the same schedule as many of these 0-2 teams, they would be keeping company with them instead. Miami will give the Pats a run for the division title even though neither would give the playoffs a run if they were in the NFC West.

Truthfully, none of the 0-2 teams will make the playoffs, though Tampa has a remote chance. They lost 2 games at the wire, but have not looked good at the QB spot. With solid QB play, they really could make the playoffs, but an in-season trade won't happen. If they switch to Mike Glennon soon, they could still make a run with the quality D and offensive talent at RB and WR that they have. Carolina has a team that could make the playoffs if they were in another division and had a softer remaining schedule....and unleashed Cam a bit more. Minnesota is finding out that they used all of their magic up last season. Pittsburgh has no offensive line or running game. Washington and New York Giants have no defense. Cleveland has thrown the towel in on the season already.

When it comes to fantasy, you have a make better chance of making the playoffs at 0-2 than the pros do. The ability to make trades and free agent acquisitions gives us hope. If you are dealing with injuries and/or underperforming players, see if you can trade a top player, such as AP, Peyton, or Victor Cruz for multiple players to fill slots. Also, look to trade players putting up big numbers, such as Michael Vick,  DeSean Jackson or Julio Jones for multiple, albeit lower-level players than the aforementioned proven vets. Unless you are in a deep league, QBs can be replaced from the waiver wire with players such as Sam Bradford and WRs can be replaced with others that could soon be steals, such as Nate Burleson. If you are not ready to do that yet, hit the waiver wire for short-term fixes that could actually turn into long-term solutions. In that pool this week, we have the following players in many leagues:

QB: Alex Smith (KC) - It is good to see Smith pick up with the same reliable game that he had in San Fran. He is averaging 200yds passing, 2 TDs, 40yds rushing per game and no turnovers.

RB: James Stark (GB) - This is a temporary fix as he is a one-week fill-in while Eddie Lacy recovers from his concussion. He had a nice game last week against Washington, but temper your expectations this week against a much better defense, on the road and probably sharing a few carries with other GB backs. RB is always thin on the waiver wire so take what you can get. Bernard Pierce is a better option if some foolish Ray Rice owner neglected to handcuff Pierce to him.

WR: Eddie Royal (SD) - While I didn't buy into Royal after week 1, it is hard to continue ignoring him and his onslaught of TDs even though he has been completely ignored for years. With Michael Floyd still not knowing what day it is, start Royal until Philip Rivers cools down or begins to look at Vincent Brown and Keenan Allen.

TE: Charles Clay (MIA) - Here is a name that escaped our radar in the pre-season, but he is looking like a reliable start (10 catches, 163 yards) so far this season as Ryan Tannehill is preferring an airborne assault over a ground attack.

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