Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Whoa For NFL Week 1

We all expected a wild and wooly Week 1 of unpredictability in the NFL....and we certainly got it. Lots of rust, lots of surprises and lots of blowouts were expected and the NFL delivered. While I was very uninterested in the NFL during the summer, as Ron predicted, it didn't take long for me to find myself right back to the same excitement level that I experienced last season. Of course, having shootouts open and close the week and watching my Bears display some surprising dominance over one of the league's best teams helped immensely. While the Bears have big challenges in the next two weeks, I do expect the rest of the NFL to continue to follow the pattern established in Week 1. Though I don't have any mystic tea leaves, I do have my own prognostications on what to expect.


No Surprises Here

  • The Saints defense looked really bad in pre-season and were outright shredded by the Cheese in the opening game. The Bears will put their defense to the test as well and it will be up to the Bears’ defense to play as well as they did against Atlanta for the Bears to pull the big upset in The Big Easy.
  • Houston will be a force this year. The Colts were not much of a test due to Peyton's neck issues, but their defense is vastly improved and they have ridiculously good depth at running back. As bad as the Colts looked, they have too much talent to be that bad. Of course, not knowing Peyton would be out and the lockout really handcuffed their synergy. They'll get a little better every week, starting by beating Cleveland this weekend.
  • Tony Romo is not a Top Tier quarterback and no matter how hysterically serious he seemed to be when he claimed that he is in Tom Brady's class, Eli Manning is far from Brady’s class. Good Lord, whatever he was sniffing when he made that claim, they should power airplanes with it cuz he was sky high. I would slot him in the same remedial class as Rex Grossman.
  • Speaking of Tom Brady, that boy is on a mission this year. He will put up huge numbers....his defense will lose a few games for him though. They really made a one-dimensional Dolphins offense look much better than they are.
  • The NFL is full of mediocre teams. KC is not near as bad as they looked last week, but no way they lose by 34 in their home opener if they had a normal training camp. The Browns defense was so uninterested in playing the Bengals that they let them run a play against them while they spectated. I think they were as shocked as cuz that Cincy actually completed the pass in the right direction and scored. I fully expect a lot of flip-flopping by these and the other 23 terrible-to-average teams in the NFL....look bad one week and then good the next. Have fun in your Survivor Pools when you have used up the handful of really good teams!


Big Surprises Here

  • Cam Newton had a huge coming out party, but it was against a crappy Arizona pass defense. Green Bay will bring him back to Earth this week. There are other games on the Panthers schedule where he will put on big numbers so he will be good for a spot start here and there.
  • Pittsburgh defense looked excellent in pre-season but their play and the ineptness of the Steelers' offense was quite shocking, especially considering the long history of close games against the Ravens. It was an expensive shocker for me, but the Steelers will pull a 180 and lay it on Seattle this weekend.
  • Chris Johnson looked like he slept on that uncomfortable stack of cash he held out for. I wasn't too surprised at his poor showing. I was shocked that he only received 9 carries in a close game though. I guess Tennessee decided to let Matt Hasselbeck implement Seattle's offense after they signed him.
  • Detroit and Tampa Bay should be involved in entertaining games all year long, though Tampa should watch game film of Detroit and notice how their offense worked in running plays, especially when it wasn't a completely obvious running down.


Good luck in your leagues and pools this week and enjoy the whipsaw that will be Week 2.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

2011 NFLTeam Win Projections

As much as I tried to resist, I had to put together my Win projections for each of the NFL teams to see how well I do against the Vegas oddsmakers. Not surprisingly this year, we are thinking along the same lines; the really good teams will be really good and the bad teams will be oh so bad. Parity is out the window this year, my friends.


East

Bill

Book


East

Bill

Book

New England

12

11.5


Philly

11

10.5

NY Jets

10

9.5


NY Giants

9

9.5

Miami

6

7.5


Dallas

9

9

Buffalo

6

5.5


Wash

5

6.5

North


North

Baltimore

12

10.5


GB

12

11.5

Pittsburgh

12

10.5


Chicago

8

8.5

Cleveland

5

6.5


Detroit

7

7

Cincy

4

5.5


Minny

7

6.5

South


South

Houston

10

9


Atlanta

11

10.5

Indy

9

10.5


NO

11

10

Tenn

6

6.5


TB

8

8

Jax

5

6.5


Carolina

3

4.5

West


West

San Diego

12

10


St. Louis

8

7.5

Denver

7

6


SF

8

7.5

Oakland

7

6.5


Arizona

7

6

KC

6

6


Seattle

5

6


AFC Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Houston, San Diego

AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, New York Jets

AFC Championship game: Baltimore over New England

NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Atlanta, St. Louis

NFC Wildcards: New Orleans, New York Giants

NFC Championship game: Atlanta over Philadelphia

Super Bowl Champs: Baltimore


For those paying attention from last year, I am picking the Ravens A-GAIN. If they didn't melt down in the playoffs in the second half against Pittsburgh last year, I truly believe that they would have won the whole thing.

A few other notables: Indy will not make the playoffs and the NFC West will be another Dog Show, but at least the winner will emerge with a .500 record this year!

Aside from Baltimore to win it all, the best bets for the regular season are the teams that I have projected at 1.5 games under the Vegas number and Pitt, San Diego and Baltimore over their numbers. I really believe that we will have a bunch of crappy teams this year and some really dominant teams. I wish I would have bet Houston to win the AFC South last week before the latest news on Peyton came out as the bet is off the board right now. With an improved defense, I like them to finally get over the hump this year.