Sunday, September 30, 2012

Week 4 NFL Player Question Marks

Injury Reports are the NFL coach's way of playing cat-and-mouse with their opponents. Bill Belichick started the game and now many other coaches are following suit. For Sunday games, the NFL mandates that teams submit an Injury Status report on Friday. However, they do not attach a lie detector test to the coach submitting the report and don't require another official update before the game. They can take a key player that is injured, declare him as Questionable and then de-activate him at game-time. Opposing coaches know this and formulate gameplans with and without the player in the line-up. Fantasy owners, who do not play in leagues with In-game changes, don't quite have that much flexibility and must roll the dice on who they are putting in their starting lineups and who is sitting the bench. There are multiple players fitting this description for Week 4.

Matthew Stafford - Stafford tweaked a leg injury lumbering after an interception last week and sat out the remainder of the game. Since he is not a running QB, he will be underneath center this week. He should be in the middle of a shootout at home versus the Vikings this weekend and should be started.

Pierre Garcon - Garcon has been sitting since hurting his foot in Week 2. He has been practicing this week, but it has been limited. IF he takes the field, it won't be for a lot of plays. The Skins do not want him to further aggravate his injury. Sit him and replace him with Leonard Hankerson if you need some 'Skin in the game.

Reggie Bush - Bush hurt his knee in week 3 and is the dreaded game-time decision for week 3. Should he play, much like Garcon, his field time will be minimal and should be limited to a few screen passes. I expect Daniel Thomas to handle the bulk of the hand-offs.

Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller - this has to be the toughest call of all since Chan Gailey is matching up against Bill Belichick. Fred Jackson is coming off another knee injury but is playing. C.J. Spiller hurt his shoulder last week and is a game-time decision. In their absence last week, Tashard Choice filled in nicely. IF you have to start one RB out of these players, I would start Choice. I just don't see Buffalo risking Jackson's knee by giving him too many carries and I really don't think Spiller plays at all. If you have ANY other options, use them. I would even recommend adding Shaun Draughn in KC if you need to add someone. The Chiefs ran the hell out of Jamal Charles last week but should mix it up a bit this week. With Peyton Hillis out, Draughn steps in.

Questionable Players Out:

Hakeem Nicks - out again this week. If you spent a waiver pick on Ramses Barden, it looks like it will be worth it. He may not have the game that he had in Week 3, but he will have another solid game.

Nate Kaeding - a groin injury has Kaeding out this week. If he is on your team. cut him immediately. I would recommend grabbing Blair Walsh, Steve Zuerlein or Jason Hanson if one of them is available.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Time To Panic?

Two weeks of football should not cause one to panic. However, some people have their finger hovering very close that that very button. Among those folks are the people who bought into the speculation that Tennessee would have a respectable air attack and Chris Johnson would return to a reliable fantasy point producer. In two games, he has 21 yards rushing! Also, MFS crush, Kansas City Chiefs, visits N'arlin's in a battle of winless teams. I suppose it is not surprising for the Saints to be winless after the off-season they had. However, they really have looked bad in their two losses and KC's defense has been abysmal.

The talk in Chicago leading up to opening day was that Jay Cutler would live through the season thanks to Mike Tice running the team. He was improving the line and working with Cutler to avoid taking too many steps in his drop and holding onto the ball too long. Well, that went out the window as Cutler has been sacked on the first play of both games and saw more of Clay Mathews in the backfield that he did Matt Forte.

After stunning the Giants in week 1, Dallas fans quickly erased those memories with another no-show on the road in Seattle. I truly believe Tony Romo has now surpassed Eli Manning as the most overrated QB to step on the field.  

True panic is any coordinator trying to put a gameplan together to face the Niners. They look awesome on both sides of the ball. Say what you want about Antonio Gates and Rob Gronkowski. I think Vernon Davis is the hardest Tight End to defend.

The praise about Peyton Manning not losing a step during his year off ended quickly on MNF as he completed more passes to the Falcons in Q1 than he did to his own team. Props for rallying the team, but credit really goes to the defense and Willis McGahee, who is currently the most underrated back in the league. Sunday's game versus Houston will be a true litmus test.

Any Fred Jackson owner who did not immediately grab C.J. Spiller with his next pick has to really feel foolish right now. I don't see Fred being a factor the rest of the year if C.J. stays healthy.

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Reign In Blood

Fall and football is here and it feels much better than it did last year after the lockout ended. I was unable to get out for any week 1 games so I ended up watching as many as I could on TV. The worst part of that is the crappy commercials. With network TV shows, delaying the broadcast so I can fast forward through the commercials works out perfectly. That doesn't quite work for live sporting events though. I need to know NOW what is happening. So, I have to deal with those crappy DirecTV commercials with Deion and the Mannings playing the bugs that they are. ESPN is the only constant when it comes to delivering commercial entertainment and I will tell ya, that John Clayton commercial is my favorite ESPN commercial of all-time and undoubtedly ranks in the Top 5 across the board. In honor of that commercial, my delayed recap features homage to other classic heavy metal jams.

Run To The Hills - maybe that is where Buffalo's defense was. Who knows if they will show up against Kansas City this week, but many owners dumped them quickly after letting the anemic Jets roll all over them. One of the players picked up in their place was NYJ WR Stephen Hill. The rookie secured the #2 WR position easily by debuting with 5 catches for 89 yards and 2 TDs.

The Last In Line - the Miami Dolphins were the only team without an offensive TD in week 1. Sure, it was against one of the better defenses in the league and on the road, but folks, you are looking at the worst team in the NFL. They are playing for the number 1 draft pick.

Victim Of Changes - the Oakland Raiders learned the hard way that they should dedicate some practice time for all positions, even specialty positions, such as the long snapper. When Jon Condo went out with a concussion, the Raiders had no adequate backup and botched three punts to gift-wrapped 9 points for a San Diego offense that desperately needs Ryan Mathews in the line-up.

Sweet Leaf - in the least-watched, but one of the most entertaining games of the day, the Minnesota Vikings pulled off a miracle 14-second drive to kick the game-tying field goal prior to winning in OT. Though it was against Jacksonville, the Vikings may actually have an offense since AP seems to be healed and Christian Ponder can move the ball with Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph and even Devin Aromashodu. Once WR Jerome Simpson joins the team following his suspension, he will be an additional weapon on offense for Ponder to consider.

Seek And Destroy - when the Broncos noticed that the Steelers could not run the ball with Isaac Redman, they targeted Big Ben successfully. They sacked him 5 times and picked him off for a game-icing TD. Until Rashard Mendenhall is fully healed, the Steelers need to rely on Jonathan Dwyer to run the ball. He is built like a prototypical Steelers back anyway.

2012 NFL Win Projections

I am not going too far out on a limb on many of these picks. I will be the first to admit that they look a lot like how they ended up last year. It wasn't intentional. The numbers just ended up there once I tabulated my head-to-head results. There are a few wagering opportunities in here though.

    East    Bill    Book         East    Bill    Book
    New England    13    12.5    Philly    9    10
    Buffalo    10    8    Dallas    8    8.5
    NY Jets    9    9    NY Giants    8    8.5
    Miami    6    7    Wash    6    6
    North              North          
    Baltimore    10    10    GB    12    12
    Pittsburgh    10    10    Chicago    11    9.5
    Cincy    7    8    Detroit    9    9
    Cleveland    5    5    Minny    5    6
    South              South          
    Houston    10    10    Atlanta    10    9
    Tenn    8    7.5    NO    9    9.5
    Indy    4    5    Carolina    8    8
    Jax    3    5    TB    8    5.5
    West              West          
    KC    9    8         SF    9    9.5
    Oakland    8    7.5    Seattle    6    7
    San Diego    7    9    Arizona    6    6.5
    Denver    7    8.5    St. Louis    6    6

AFC Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Buffalo
AFC Championship game: New England over Baltimore

NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Fran
NFC Wildcards: New Orleans, Chicago
NFC Championship game: Green Bay over Atlanta

Super Bowl Champs: Green Bay