No Luck In Dallas

I am not talking about the Cowboys, of course. Many a championship game was lost with Andrew Luck under center last weekend. In what was expected to turn into a shootout was a flat-out rout. There were not even garbage time points to pick up. For Andrew Luck owners, you can turn to Aaron Rodgers owners, who lost out the previous week on his no-show in Buffalo, and get some sympathy. His gopher on the day deflated owners by association who had started Dwayne Allen and Donte Moncrief in hopes of picking up the points that were normally directed at T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne. Drew Brees owners fared a bit better by barely reaching double digits but sure as hell didn't like the call on the Jimmy Graham goal line fumble and on the fumble on the last play of the game. It was a brutal way for some owners to complete their season.

Luck and Brees were not the only Duds on Sunday, but it is no fun to list them all out. It is part of the game and the reason you should always try to have a balanced lineup. You can reflect on your lineup and make excuses on why you should have started QB Ryan Tannehill over Andrew Luck, but, without a crystal ball or time machine, you would never make that decision, even with T.Y. Hilton out in advance of the game. Guys flame out at the wrong time, but, if you play this game enough, you will win games like this too.

Other Week 16 items of note:

• I can't tout In-game changes enough after a week like this. Having the ability to change out players at half or at the end of a quarter would have given owners the opportunity to swap in a different player for Luck, Romo, Murray,.. at half or end of Q3 when the game was effectively over and you knew backups would finish the game out.
• Week 17 has all games on Sunday, which is a first for the year, and would normally make the decision on which games to watch difficult, but with a lot of backups in line to play; Brandon Weeden, Matt Hasselbeck, Luke McCown,...you can draw a line through those games, even if you are in a 17-week fantasy league.
• I knew Buffalo was going to be a bit risky on offense at Oakland since they are not too dynamic to begin with and have troubles on the road, especially three time zones away, but how their defense stifled Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers and got taken apart by Oakland befuddles me. I was really pulling for them to make the playoffs and they would have had a better opportunity this weekend with New England having wrapped up the top AFC seed.
• Justin Forsett provided a reminder to also consider veterans who have assumed a more prominent role as a potential for burn out at the end of the season. We always consider rookies who started the season as the top back as a potential for hitting the Rookie Wall, but that wall should be extended to veterans too, as Forsett's last two games have proven.
• The Saints have lost 5 straight at home and needed to win one of them to make the playoffs...and many of the games really weren't that close. So much for the mystique.
• I wonder if NFL owners will finally stop throwing insane money at QBs. It was foolish for the Ravens to pay Joe Flacco like they did, but with Colin Kaepernick and Jay Cutler following in his underperforming footsteps, you would hope a reality check would kick in. Flacco was facing a bad Houston secondary and laid an egg. Until a late flurry of completions, he had fewer completions than fingers on his throwing hand when the team needed him the most.

If you are still playing in week 17 and need to replace hurt or benched players, look for any Minnesota Viking to start with; QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Matt Asiata, WR Greg Jennings or Charles Johnson, or TE Chase Ford. If not available, look for any of the following.

QB: Brandon Weeden (DAL) - with the Cowboys all but locked into the 3rd seed, there is a good chance that Tony Romo sits on Sunday. If you own him, you want to grab Weeden. The Redskins defense is terrible so Weeden will have the opportunity to post good numbers, even if his targets are Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley. You should make this move unless you can grab Eli and Teddy B in your league.

RB: Jonas Gray (NE) - with nothing to play for, I would expect Gray to get the bulk of the Patriots carries this weekend. They have ridden him for almost 40 carries previously so I would expect to see him carry the load this weekend against a mediocre Bills' run defense.

RB: Brandon Oliver (SD) - with Ryan Mathews out, Oliver is the man once again. He has done little since his first stint as SD's RB1, but the Chiefs' run defense is nothing to be feared and we can't be too choosy when filling out a line up this weekend.

WR: Eddie Royal (SD) - with Keenan Allen out, Royal re-assumed his early season role as a WR2 in week 16 and it paid off in a big way for his owners. With the Chargers vying for a playoff berth, he becomes a must-pick up player this week.

WR: Danny Amendola (NE) - Amendola was the second coming of Wes Welker when the Pats signed him two years ago from St Louis. Injuries and Julian Edelman have kept him from the playing field. With Edelman hurt and a meaningless game this weekend, it is the perfect time for Amendola to get involved in the gameplan.

TE: Charles Clay (MIA) - healthy again, Clay has been a big part of the Dolphins offense the past two weeks. The Fins have little to play for this week, but they want to end up with a winning record and have no interest in handing the Jets a cheap W.

Winning big in Fantasy Football Playoffs

For those involved in their league playoffs in Week 14, there were some definite highlights and a few lowlights. Anyone heavily invested in Cowboys and Bears players, sans Jason Witten and Brandon Marshall, got the week off to a good start in a high-scoring December game in Chicago last Thursday. The fantasy stud of the week was undoubtedly La'Veon Bell. Hard to believe that he topped 200 total yards again for the third straight game, matching a feat only accomplished previously by the Great Walter Payton, to go alongside 3 TDs. 

If you didn't own Bell, there were plenty of big points strewn around the league last week, especially when you married star QB and stud WR on your team. The shootout at Lambeau to finish up the week turned many games. Having the tandem of Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson or Matt Ryan and Julio Jones paid off handsomely for many owners and no Rodgers owner should be complaining about losing a match due to a 4-yard rushing loss on the last kneel down of the game.

On the flip side, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning owners had to be a bit sick to their stomach after watching these two put up Geno Smith numbers last weekend. It really had to be hard for those owners to swallow if they had Cam Newton or Andy Dalton shining on the bench. The reality of it all is that you should always go with your studs this time of year unless there is an injury concern.  

For those still playing, even if it is in your Toilet Bowl, there are a host of players available this week. 

QB: Jake Locker (TENN): Locker gets the reins back in Tennessee again this weekend with Mettenberger back on the bench with injuries. I hate to look to the waiver wire this week for a QB, but I prefer Locker over Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown.

RB: Jonathan Stewart (CAR): Stewart has now tallied 10 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games after rushing 20 times for 155 yards and a score against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. With Cam Newton undoubtedly out on Sunday, Stewart will again carry a heavy load.

RB: Latavius Murray (OAK): Murray is back after a concussion and resumed his role as lead back with 23 carries. He didn't do much with them, but he faces a Chief's defense that he lit up for over a 100 yards and 2 TDs just 3 weeks ago on 4 carries.

RB: Kerwynn Williams (AZ): Williams was a shock this past weekend when RB Andre Ellington was placed on IR since Stepfan Taylor and Marion Grice were getting the fill-in carries. After producing 100 yards on 19 carries, ignore any talk of a platoon and pick up Williams.

WR: Charles Johnson (MINN): Johnson has been recommended previously but still sits on 78% of all waiver wires and keeps producing. His last game saw him deliver for 4/103/1.

WR Marqise Lee (JAX): Lee also makes a repeat appearance. After losing a lot of the season to injury, he has established himself as a player to watch next year but appears to be QB Blake Bortles go-to receiver right now. With the Jags chasing a lot of points in Baltimore this weekend, expect a lot of passes to be thrown by the Jags.

WR: Marquess Wilson (CHI): with Brandon Marshall done for the year, Wilson is expected to see his involvement in the offense expand exponentially. With a shootout versus the Saints looming, Wilson could be a real sneaky add for your playoffs this week.

TE: Heath Miller (PITT): with so many receiving options for the Steelers, it is hard to count on Miller week-in and week-out, but I see a solid game ahead against bad Falcons defense.

No Such Thing as a Sure Thing

Bet against the Steelers every time you see a “sure” thing with them. I thought the loss to the Jets was inexplicable, but losing at home, after a Bye week, against the same Saints who normally never win outdoors especially in late November and who had just lost an unheard of three straight games at home under Sean Payton. Also, they dominated this game with Jimmy Graham being a statistical non-factor. Of course, he should get some credit for being the focal point of the defense and giving Kenny Stills plenty of room to get open. Wow, Stills has really taken advantage of Brandin Cooks’ injury. When you least expect it in the NFL, expect it!

Also, go against bad teams with momentum. After Oakland won their first game of the year in a huge upset versus Kansas City, they were beaten worse than SMU would have been last Sunday. The Rams scored the first 5 times that they had the ball and averaged 4.5 plays per scoring drive. Oakland used to be good for at least putting up a late TD or two to make a few of their players useful in fantasy football. Not last Sunday. They are happy with their one win and a paycheck. The Niners will be happy to see them submitting this coming weekend. The stat that I found amazing was that, prior to facing the Rams, the Raiders QBs had only been sacked 13 times this season. Make that 19 now…and counting.

I feel bad for anyone who has to guess which Tampa or New England running back to play. I assume that the Bucs are giving Doug Martin the rock in hopes that he does well enough to generate an off-season trade request. Of course, they have to be concerned about the lack of production from Charles Sims in his limited chances. As far as New England goes, just when you figure that Jonas Gray is out of the doghouse and/or LeGarrette Blount is now the RB1, Brandon Bolden gets a load of love and gets the only Pats rushing TD.

Other Week 13 Oddities

• Aaron Rodgers has thrown 20 TDs versus 0 INTs at home this season. Needless to say, they have not lost any of those games. Jordy Nelson has 7 of those TDs and all have gone for 25 yards or longer. Very nice if you are playing in a league that offers bonus points for longer TDs or playing in a TD Only Daily Fantasy Football league.
• TE Anthony Fasano and RB Jamaal Charles each caught a TD against Denver, extending the Chief’s season-long drought of WR TD receptions. 
• Colt McCoy threw for 393 yards. Pierre Garcon, playing against his original team, had 3 receptions for 9 yards. Yuck. So much for showing up against your former team. He did have 9 Targets, which shows you how meaningless that category really is.
• Though he has a few former teams, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick sure didn’t look rusty when he dialed into the Six TD Club against his former employers in Tennessee last Sunday. Loads of points on the waiver wire there.
• Atlanta took one weapon into battle versus Arizona last Sunday, Julio Jones, and Arizona had no defense for it, even with the great Patrick Peterson shadowing Jones. That is the same Peterson that claims that he is as good as Derrelle Revis. I did not see the game but I have to assume that DC Todd Bowles and HC Bruce Arians noticed that Julio owned Peterson and provided some form of help instead of leaving him hanging out to dry in embarrassment. I hate to see another great season for the Cardinals go to waste as they miss the playoffs, but it is trending n that direction. They better take care of KC this weekend.
• Here we go. Johnny Manziel got into the game versus Buffalo in the 4th quarter when it was over and scored a TD. Whoopie. Of course, he had to do his stupid money gesture. Me-First gestures always make sense in a blowout, don't they? Of course, LeBron has to chime in about Manziel’s readiness since he is such a student of the game and his opinion on personnel really matters. This is how I feel when I see the tide turning for Manziel like it did for Tebow in Denver. 
• How about those Giants?! Up 21-0 against a Jacksonville team that was playing inspired Raiders’ football. Eli decided to bait them into playing by fumbling to them in the end zone for an easy TD. Well, that was enough to wake the sleeping Giant-killers and have them rise up and give the Giants their 7th loss in a row. Not much joy in the Big Apple again this year. 
• Speaking of the Big Apple, you could sit out in the rain watching the Jets lose again on Monday night or head to the local theater. Now, everyone has that choice every game day. In this case though, you would have paid more for your movie ticket than you would have for the Jets game.
• J.J. Watt is such a machine. Add 2 sacks, a forced fumble and another offensive TD to his amazing 2014 season.

Fantasy playoffs are here for 80% of fantasy football  leagues. There are still some traditionalists, count me as one, that enjoy playing all 17 weeks. In-game change leagues make that so much easier. For those still playing, even if it is in your Toilet Bowl, there are a host of players available this week. 

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (Hou) – as mentioned above, he showed no rust and stuck it to the Titans last week. He will come back down to Earth, but no QB has a more favorable set of matchups to end the season. He is startable over many QB1s. Jake Locker is another QB that is available and has good matchups ahead. He is an injury risk though so tread lightly. Our recommendation of Colt McCoy from last week still stands and I would take him over Locker if I had to choose.

RB: Doug Martin (TB) – the Bucs have determined that Charles Sims is not ready and want Martin to showcase himself so they can move him in the off-season. He has severely underperformed all season, but you can’t be choosy on a thin waiver wire when needing a RB.

WR: Kenny Stills (NO) – back-to-back big weeks has Stills in a must-start position with great matchups ahead and Drew looking his way often more than any other Saints’ receiver.

WR: Stedman Bailey (STL) – since Shaun Hill has taken over and the receiving corps have taken a hit, Stedman has been steady with 12/189/1 over the past 2 games, including a 100-yard effort in the first half against Oakland last week. 

WR: Nate Washington (TENN) – the Titans have been erratic this season under center and Washington has often been a forgotten man, but they have just lost WR Justin Hunter for the season and are inserting Jake Locker back under center. Washington’s best games the past few years have been with Locker as QB.

TE: Jordan Reed (WASH) – Reed finally shook off the injury bug and got a boost by the return of McCoy. Colt relies heavily on Reed and will be throwing often in all of his games since the Skins defense is terrible and they will be playing from behind in all cases. This week’s matchup versus a stingy Rams’ defense is not ideal though.