Thursday, August 28, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

When it comes to fantasy football drafts, I am always amused when people start producing mock drafts well in advance of Labor Day weekend. There are too many unknowns due to injuries, position battles and stupidity to make them worthwhile. I suppose if you are in a league that mandates that you draft weeks before the season starts, it makes sense but, even that cracks me up. If it is a league for fun, go crazy. However, most of us have a vested financial interest in how our team does and I sure as hell don’t want any of my top picks missing time due to non-regular season injury or off-the-field issue. It is pretty interesting to see the shift in average draft position in the weeks leading up to the season. Players like Steven Ridley and Cam Newton have cratered and players like James White and Emmanuel Sanders have shot up.

Mock drafts can vary greatly depending on the scoring system, especially when using Points Per Reception, and whether or not the league is a redraft league or a dynasty league. For our purposes, this is a standard fantasy football league scoring system for a redraft league.
This assumes a starting roster of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST. Points would be awarded for the following actions:
  • Passing: 1 point for every 25 yards, 4 points for each Touchdown, and -2 for each Interception
  • Rushing: 1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for each Touchdown, and -2 for each fumble lost
  • Receiving: 1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for each Touchdown
  • Kicking: 3 points for every Field Goal made and 1 point for each successful Extra Point
  • Defense: 2 points for each fumble recovered, 2 points for each interception, 1 point for each sack, 2 points for a shutout and 2 points for a safety

Round 1
1 Jamaal Charles, KC
2 LeSean McCoy, PHI
3 Adrian Peterson, MIN
4 Eddie Lacy, GB
5 Matt Forte, CHI
6 Jimmy Graham, NO
7 Marshawn Lynch, SEA
8 Calvin Johnson, DET
9 Demaryius Thomas, DEN
10 Montee Ball, DEN
11 A.J. Green, CIN
12 Peyton Manning, DEN

Evaluation: Having one of the top 5 picks is easy since you could make a case for any of those running backs. After that, it is a bit sketchy as there is great depth at tight end and quarterback this year. It is nice to think about a team with Jimmy Graham or Peyton Manning on it, but I would prefer a running back to start my team off and build around.

Round 2
13 DeMarco Murray, DAL
14 Brandon Marshall, CHI
15 Dez Bryant, DAL
16 Andre Ellington, ARI
17 Zac Stacy, STL
18 Drew Brees, NO
19 Giovani Bernard, CIN
20 Alshon Jeffery, CHI
21 Doug Martin, TB
22 Le'Veon Bell, PIT
23 Aaron Rodgers, GB
24 Ryan Mathews, SD

Evaluation: Decision time in round 2. Should you go traditional and get a second RB or is it best to get one good RB and one good WR? I think that there is great depth at WR this year and recommend that you get 2 solid RBs.  

Round 3
25 Julio Jones, ATL
26 Jordy Nelson, GB
27 Antonio Brown, PIT
28 Randall Cobb, GB
29 Alfred Morris, WAS
30 Arian Foster, HOU
31 Julius Thomas, DEN
32 Andrew Luck, IND
33 Rashad Jennings, NYG
34 Toby Gerhart, JAC
35 Victor Cruz, NYG
36 Reggie Bush, DET

Evaluation: If you grabbed two RBs already, you definitely need to grab a WR in round 3.  If you split them, I recommend grabbing that second RB. If you grabbed Peyton, Brees or Rodgers, you need to balance out your team in this round as the tiers begin to fall off from here.

Round 4
37 Vincent Jackson, TB
38 Rob Gronkowski, NE
39 Andre Johnson, HOU
40 Matthew Stafford, DET
41 Keenan Allen, SD
42 Frank Gore, SF
43 DeSean Jackson, WAS
44 Michael Floyd, ARI
45 Pierre Garcon, WAS
46 Roddy White, ATL
47 Chris Johnson, NYJ
48 T.Y. Hilton, IND

Evaluation: Questions abound in round 4 due to direct or indirect health issues. Stafford should have a big year, but I really like Kennan Allen at this spot.

Round 5
49 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
50 Ben Tate, CLE
51 Torrey Smith, BAL
52 Steven Jackson, ATL
53 C.J. Spiller, BUF
54 Jordan Cameron, CLE
55 Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
56 Reggie Wayne, IND
57 Fred Jackson, BUF
58 Shane Vereen, NE
59 Marques Colston, NO
60 Percy Harvin, SEA

Evaluation: If you thought round 4 was tough, round 5 is even more difficult. There are a handful of players with very high upside here, such as Cordarrelle and C.J., but I like Cameron quite a bit since Cleveland has the absolute worst WRs ever lined up in professional football.

Round 6
61 Julian Edelman, NE
62 Jeremy Maclin, PHI
63 Eric Decker, NYJ
64 Colin Kaepernick, SF
65 Vernon Davis, SF
66 Wes Welker, DEN
67 Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
68 Trent Richardson, IND
69 Tom Brady, NE
70 Joique Bell, DET
71 Golden Tate, DET
72 Bishop Sankey, TEN

Evaluation: Tom Brady in round 6? It has been a long time since we have seen anything resembling this. I still think I would pass and grab Ryan, Rivers or Cutler in one of the next 3 rounds. I like Sanders if I want a WR here or Bell if I want a RB. He had great numbers last year, even in a split role. That role should continue this year with him getting the red zone work. Plus, Reggie isn’t Mr. Durability.

Round 7
73 Matt Ryan, ATL
74 Jason Witten, DAL
75 Mike Wallace, MIA
76 Kendall Wright, TEN
77 Terrance Williams, DAL
78 Michael Crabtree, SF
79 Ray Rice, BAL
80 Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK
81 Knowshon Moreno, MIA
82 Riley Cooper, PHI
83 Darren McFadden, OAK
84 Nick Foles, PHI

Evaluation: There is a lot of value in this round. I like Mike Wallace to have a solid year with Tannehill growing into his position. Matty Ice has his weapons back. Moreno should assume the #1 RB spot within a few weeks. Cooper, Williams and Wright will all have solid numbers. Enjoy this round as it won’t be this easy for a few rounds.

Round 8
85 Sammy Watkins, BUF
86 Russell Wilson, SEA
87 Stevan Ridley, NE
88 Pierre Thomas, NO
89 Tony Romo, DAL
90 Lamar Miller, MIA
91 Cam Newton, CAR
92 Brandin Cooks, NO
93 Cecil Shorts, JAC
94 Philip Rivers, SD
95 Dwayne Bowe, KC
96 Terrance West, CLE

Evaluation: LOADS of questionable picks here. If you need a QB, Rivers is a must-pick now. I trust Cooks and West as rookies more than Watkins but I would leave Cam and Ridley alone here. Bowe could be a value pick here since KC has no receivers past him.

Round 9
97 Dennis Pitta, BAL
98 Carlos Hyde, SF
99 DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
100 Kyle Rudolph, MIN
101 Jay Cutler, CHI
102 Robert Griffin III, WAS
103 Shonn Greene, TEN
104 Bernard Pierce, BAL
105 Kelvin Benjamin, CAR
106 Greg Olsen, CAR
107 Darren Sproles, PHI
108 Anquan Boldin, SF

Evaluation: This round is a mixture of good and bad. The ceiling on Cutler is sky-high this season but the threat of injury is always sky high with him. Kyle Rudolph should be a solid pick now as is Olsen. Lots of upside with Benjamin, Pitta and Hopkins.

Round 10
109 Jordan Reed, WAS
110 Jeremy Hill, CIN
111 DeAngelo Williams, CAR
112 Danny Woodhead, SD
113 Hakeem Nicks, IND
114 Justin Hunter, TEN
115 James White, NE
116 Martellus Bennett, CHI
117 Mark Ingram, NO
118 Danny Amendola, NE
119 James Jones, OAK
120 Jonathan Stewart, CAR

Evaluation: I have been fooled by Stewart, Amendola and Nicks enough to stay away. There is a lot of value in Hunter, White, Jones and Ingram in this round. Hill should see a nice split of action with Bernard as will Reed and Bennett on teams with lots of other options.

Round 11
121 Greg Jennings, MIN
122 Christine Michael, SEA
123 Marqise Lee, JAC
124 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
125 Zach Ertz, PHI
126 Tre Mason, STL
127 Jordan Matthews, PHI
128 Mike Evans, TB
129 Markus Wheaton, PIT
130 Donald Brown, SD
131 LeGarrette Blount, PIT
132 Steve Smith, BAL

Evaluation: Just when you would expect to be dragging the bottom of the barrel, you will find happiness in a lot of WR options here. This round epitomizes why I stressed a run on RBs early. Lee and Matthews could end up being the primary receiving options on their respective teams. Wheaton, Smith and Evans may also put up significant numbers as should Ertz at the TE position.

Round 12
133 Devonta Freeman, ATL
134 Ladarius Green, SD
135 Andy Dalton, CIN
136 Andre Williams, NYG
137 James Starks, GB
138 Knile Davis, KC
139 Khiry Robinson, NO
140 Rueben Randle, NYG
141 C.J. Anderson, DEN
142 Carson Palmer, ARI
143 Tavon Austin, STL
144 Seattle Seahawks D/ST

Evaluation: Hello Handcuffs! It is always a good idea to back up your studs RBs if they have talented backups. That is the majority of this round. There is always one team that considers themselves smart by choosing the top defense before the inevitable late run. I suppose I can support that over a backup QB.

Round 13
145 Brandon LaFell, NE
146 Josh McCown, TB
147 Ronnie Hillman, DEN
148 Doug Baldwin, SEA
149 Joe Flacco, BAL
150 Jerricho Cotchery, CAR
151 Charles Clay, MIA
152 Kenny Stills, NO
153 Mike James, TB
154 Mike Williams, BUF
164 San Francisco 49ers D/ST
155 Ahmad Bradshaw, IND
156 Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Evaluation: As mentioned in Round 11, you can find solid receiving options in these late rounds. The Patriots have no set number 1 WR and LaFell could easily assume that role. Carolina is starting fresh at WR and Cotchery has the most seniority. Seattle showed that they believe in Baldwin by giving him a contract to earn and Stills showed decent rapport with Brees last season, but you can’t expect consistent production from him.   

Round 14
157 Brian Hartline, MIA
158 Mohamed Sanu, CIN
159 Andrew Hawkins, CLE
160 Kenbrell Thompkins, NE
161 Carolina Panthers D/ST
162 Denver Broncos D/ST
163 Lance Dunbar, DAL
165 Antonio Gates, SD
166 Dwayne Allen, IND
167 Robert Woods, BUF
168 Michael Vick, NYJ

Evaluation: Bottom of the barrel, we find ye here. Hartline, Thompkins and Hawkins are well worth a flier here if you have room for an extra WR. Other than that grab a backup or think about dipping into the pool of defenses.

Round 15
169 Stephen Gostkowski, NE
170 New England Patriots D/ST
171 Houston Texans D/ST
172 Cincinnati Bengals D/ST
173 Arizona Cardinals D/ST
174 Dri Archer, PIT
175 Matt Bryant, ATL
176 Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST
177 Buffalo Bills D/ST
178 Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
179 Justin Tucker, BAL
180 St. Louis Rams D/ST

Evaluation: Get a defense. They are pretty thin this year.

Round 16
181 Steven Hauschka, SEA
182 Chris Ivory, NYJ
183 Mason Crosby, GB
184 Phil Dawson, SF
185 Adam Vinatieri, IND
186 Baltimore Ravens D/ST
187 Nick Folk, NYJ
188 Robbie Gould, CHI
189 Dan Bailey, DAL
190 Greg Zuerlein, STL
191 Nate Freese, DET
192 Nick Novak, SD

Evaluation: Get a kicker. You need to start one.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

2014 NFL Win-Loss Projections

With so much parity in the NFL nowadays, it is pretty difficult to accurately project a full season of games, not to mention the unknown factor of numerous key injuries. However, we love betting on NFL Futures so we forge ahead. We wager throughout the season so we will adjust our opinion of teams weekly, even it it goes against some of our projections. In the end, we always end up winning more on our Futures than losing, which is the ultimate goal. When it comes to wagering, we always recommend to have multiple locations to get your lines since lines, particularly with Futures, can vary quite a bit from place-to-place so get the best number you can. When reviewing our numbers, you’ll see that we expect no happiness in the New York market until hockey season, Johnny Football not being able to save the Mistake By The Lake, joy in the midwest as the Colts and the Bears have victorious years and the Rams to toil in misery – actually, when looking at their schedule, Bradford would not have been much help. It is a brutal line-up of games for them.


East Bill Book
East Bill Book
New England 11 11
Philly 9 9
Miami 7 7.5
Wash 7 7.5
Buffalo 6 7
Dallas 7 7.5
NY Jets 5 7
NY Giants 6 8







North


North

Baltimore 9 8.5
GB 11 10.5
Pittsburgh 9 8.5
Chicago 10 8.5
Cincy 9 9
Detroit 8 8.5
Cleveland 5 6.5
Minny 5 6







South


South

Indy 11 9.5
NO 11 10
Tenn 8 7
Atlanta 9 8.5
Houston 7 8
Carolina 7 8
Jax 5 5
TB 6 7







West


West

Denver 12 11.5
Seattle 12 11
KC 8 8
SF 11 10.5
San Diego 8 8
Arizona 8 7
Oakland 5 4
St. Louis 4 6


AFC Division winners: New England, Baltimore, Indy, Denver
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
AFC Championship game: Denver over New England

NFC Division winners: Philly, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Wildcards: San Fran, Chicago
NFC Championship game: San Fran over Seattle

Super Bowl Champs: San Fran