Saturday, August 31, 2013

2013 NFL Win Projections

This is an interesting season. The AFC division races will primarily be over with by the mid-point of the season, outside of the AFC North, and the NFC division races will come down to the last week of the season, at least according to the projections that I put together. I didn't really step out on a limb for my Super Bowl champ, though deciding between Denver, San Francisco and Atlanta was difficult. For wagering purposes, the Under on Wins for Miami, Jacksonville, the Jets, San Diego and Oakland look real good. For Overs, Houston, Cincinnati and New Orleans look real tasty.

East Bill Book East Bill Book
New England 10 11 NY Giants 9 9
Miami 7 8 Dallas 9 8.5
Buffalo 6 6.5 Wash 8 8.5
NY Jets 4 6.5 Philly 7 7.5
North North
Cincy 10 8.5 GB 10 10.5
Pittsburgh 9 9 Chicago 9 8.5
Baltimore 8 8.5 Detroit 7 8
Cleveland 6 6 Minny 7 7.5
South South
Houston 12 10.5 Atlanta 11 10
Indy 9 8.5 NO 11 9
Tenn 6 6.5 Carolina 7 7
Jax 3 5 TB 6 7.5
West West
Denver 12 11.5 SF 11 11
KC 8 7.5 Seattle 10 10.5
San Diego 6 7.5 St. Louis 8 7.5
Oakland 4 5.5 Arizona 6 5.5

AFC Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Houston, Denver
AFC Wildcards: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis
AFC Championship game: Denver over Houston

NFC Division winners: New York Giants, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco
NFC Wildcards: New Orleans, Seattle
NFC Championship game: Atlanta over San Francisco

Super Bowl Champs: Denver

2013 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

The NFL football pre-season is coming to a close but the majority of fantasy football drafts are in the last week. If you are like me, you prefer to wait until that week so you have a clear understanding of who the starters will be and not own valuable players who are now injured. I have been keeping a Fantasy Football Mock Draft list all summer long and have made numerous adjustments to it. I have also watched many drafts and have build an "average" draft from those results for standard scoring leagues. This allows me to compare the two and helps me understand if I need to pick a player earlier than expected if I really want them or if I can wait a little while longer on a player. I will share these insights with you now.

Round 1

  1. Adrian Peterson (RB)
  2. Doug Martin (RB)
  3. Alfred Morris (RB)
  4. Ray Rice (RB)
  5. Arian Foster (RB)
  6. Jamal Charles (RB)
  7. Marshawn Lynch (RB)
  8. Charles Johnson (WR)
  9. Matt Forte (RB)
  10. C.J. Spiller (RB)
  11. Steven Ridley (RB)
  12. LeSean McCoy (RB)
NOTES: After AP. Every mock draft has a different order for the remaining picks in round one. I believe that Doug Martin is the safest choice out of this group followed by Morris and Rice. Arian Foster is a best but knee and foot injuries with your number 1 pick can be a real killer. Steven Ridley is a questionable number 1 since he has no real track record and Shane Vereen could easily slide into a co-number 1 back role.

Round 2
  1. A.J. Green (WR)
  2. Aaron Rodgers (QB)
  3. Brandon Marshall (WR)
  4. Dez Bryant (WR)
  5. Frank Gore (RB)
  6. Drew Brees (QB)
  7. Demaryius Thomas (WR)
  8. Steven Jackson (RB)
  9. Trent Richardson (RB)
  10. Chris Johnson (RB)
  11. Larry Fitzgerald (WR)
  12. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB)
NOTES: I don’t like Rodgers this high. Too many injuries at WR and a bad OL have me concerned with his production this year. IF I want to go QB early, Brees is easily my first choice off the board. If I don’t get Brees, I look down a round or two for Matt Ryan. All RBs in this round with a shortened nickname give me pause; Sjax, T-Rich, CJ2K and MoJo are better left for other owners if you ask me. I’d pull a top WR before one of these 4, even Larry Fitzgerald since I am all in on his connection with Palmer this year.

Round 3
  1. Julio Jones (WR)
  2. Andre Johnson (WR)
  3. Roddy White (WR)
  4. Jimmy Graham (TE)
  5. Randall Cobb (WR)
  6. Tom Brady (QB)
  7. Marques Colston (WR)
  8. Darren McFadden (RB)
  9. Cam Newton (QB)
  10. Montee Ball (RB)
  11. Matt Ryan (QB)
  12. Vincent Jackson (WR)
NOTES: You can’t go wrong with any WR in this round or Jimmy Graham. Barring injury, Graham will double-up all other TEs this year. I personally grab Matt Ryan over Tm Brady this year due to age, health and far, far, far better receivers.

Round 4
  1. Reggie Wayne (WR)
  2. DeMarco Murray (RB)
  3. Mike Wallace (WR)
  4. Peyton Manning (QB)
  5. Jordy Nelson (WR)
  6. Torrey Smith (WR)
  7. David Wilson (RB)
  8. Victor Cruz (WR)
  9. Reggie Bush (RB)
  10. Ryan Mathews (RB)
  11. Danny Amendola (WR)
  12. Derrick Bowe (WR)
NOTES: If you have 2 solid RBs, a top WR/ Jimmy Graham and have a shot at Manning here, take it! You can fill out other WRs as you go on. Adding more confidence, better health and Wes Welker will only make his numbers better this year. There are a lot of question marks in this round that I would leave up to other owners, namely, Wayne, Murray, Mathews and Bush (only if not in a PPR league). David Wilson is a high risk, high reward in this round. Do yourself a favor a few rounds later and grab Andre Brown if you are the person drafting David Wilson.

Round 5
  1. Steve Smith (WR)
  2. Eric Decker (WR)
  3. Anquan Boldin (WR)
  4. Stevie Johnson (WR)
  5. Greg Jennings (WR)
  6. Lamar Miller (RB)
  7. Eddie Lacy (RB)
  8. James Jones (WR)
  9. Wes Welker (WR)
  10. Emmanuel Sanders (WR)
  11. Lance Moore (WR)
  12. Vernon Davis (TE)
NOTES: In my eyes, there are two sets of receivers here, the must drafts and the definitely skip. I don’t trust Greg Jennings and Wes Welker this high. Manning loved throwing to Decker last year and I don’t see a fall-off there, but I do with Welker. I love Boldin as a player and think he will be a beast in San Fran this year so he is my first pick out of this group.

Round 6
  1. Chris Ivory (RB)
  2. Mike Williams (WR)
  3. Rob Gronkowski
  4. Tony Gonzalez (TE)
  5. Miles Austin (WR)
  6. Colin Kaepernick (QB)
  7. Greg Olsen (TE)
  8. Owen Daniels (TE)
  9. Hakeem Nicks (WR)
  10. Giovani Bernard (RB)
  11. Darren Sproles (RB)
  12. Rashard Mendenhall (RB)
NOTES: Giovani Bernard has moved up every week since the rankings came out and with good reason. He is the Real Deal and will own the number 1 RB slot on a very good Bengals offense this year. I take him over anyone else in this round. Too many TEs in this round for me, though I would draft Tony G since he is still a health freak and will repeat last year’s monster numbers. I can’t trust Gronk, but think Mendenhall is a great choice here.

Round 7
  1. Tyler Eifert (TE)
  2. DeSean Jackson (WR)
  3. Cecil Shorts (WR)
  4. DeAngelo Williams (RB)
  5. Andrew Luck (QB)
  6. Jason Witten (TE)
  7. Daryl Richardson (RB)
  8. Isaac Redman (RB)
  9. Ahmad Bradshaw (RB)
  10. Kyle Rudolph (TE)
  11. Pierre Garcon (WR)
  12. Golden Tate (WR)
NOTES: Round 7 is a money round. If you overloaded in a position earlier, you can easily fill a hole here. Not enough RBs? Williams and Richardson are bruising starters. Not enough WRs? Jackson, Garcon and Shorts have potential for monster seasons. Need a TE? Eifert and Witten will make you smile. I think this is too early for Luck. Bradshaw is a roll of the dice that could pay off if you want a bench RB and potential trade bait if he plays well. If you get Bradshaw, grab Vick Ballard a few rounds later as well.

Round 8
  1. Tony Romo (QB)
  2. Russell Wilson (QB)
  3. Tavon Austin (WR)
  4. Michael Vick (QB)
  5. Ben Tate (RB)
  6. Malcom Floyd (WR)
  7. Vincent Brown (WR)
  8. Matthew Stafford (QB)
  9. Jacoby Jones (WR)
  10. Robert Griffin III (QB)
  11. Eli Manning (QB)
  12. Jermichael Finley (TE)
NOTES: The next tier of QBs gets their run here for those teams that did not grab a stud QB earlier. I have no issue with any QB here, but I would recommend going after another QB in round 9 or 10 if you roll the dice on Vick or RGIII as your starting QB. Ben Tate is a must-grab backups here before someone else snatches him up and backs into a top RB due to an injury. I have no idea why anyone would draft Jacoby Jones…in any round....and you can skip Andre Brown now that he is hurt. Jacoby Jones has made a career out of one catch and his return game, but he has made a career aside from that as a disappointing starting WR. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tandon Doss own the #2 WR slot in Baltimore. Take any other WR in this round.

Round 9
  1. Brandon Pettigrew (TE)
  2. Martellus Bennett (TE)
  3. DeAndre Hopkins (WR)
  4. Ronnie Hillman (RB)
  5. Kenbrell Thompkins (WR)
  6. Josh Gordon (WR)
  7. Shane Vereen (RB)
  8. Bernard Pierce (RB)
  9. Matt Schaub (QB)
  10. Sydney Rice (WR)
  11. Kenny Britt (WR)
  12. Antonio Gates (TE)
NOTES: We are now into mixed bag rounds; mid-level TEs, a nice backup QB and straight-up fliers. If you have Steven Ridley, you HAVE to grab Shane Vereen. Vereen could easily supplant Ridley as the #1 back. Josh Gordon has dropped too far due to his suspension, but he is a steal in this round and can easily sit on your bench for a few weeks. Kenbrell Thompkins is worth a pick if you are already set at WR. He has rapidly risen up the ranks as he appears to be the Patriots’ downfield threat. Houston has not lined up a single talented receiver across from Andre Johnson since he was been in the league…until now…grab DeAndre Hopkins with confidence.

Round 10
  1. Zach Miller (TE)
  2. Joe Flacco (QB)
  3. Vick Ballard (RB)
  4. Carson Palmer (QB)
  5. Michael Floyd (WR)
  6. Jay Cutler (QB)
  7. Sam Bradford (QB)
  8. Andre Roberts (WR)
  9. Pierre Thomas (RB)
  10. Ben Roethlisberger (QB)
  11. Greg Little (WR)
  12. Seattle Defense
NOTES: More of the same with backup QBs and running backs. A few intriguing picks are Michael Floyd and Pierre Thomas. I truly believe in Arizona’s passing game this year and Floyd will benefit immensely from teams overloading on Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer being able to throw the ball downfield. New Orleans needs a power back to offset Darren Sproles. They seem to think that Mark Ingram is not the answer and lost Chris Ivory, so Thomas is that back from default. Worthy of a pick here is you are not deep enough at RB.

Round 11

  1. Josh Freeman (QB)
  2. Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR)
  3. Brandon Myers (TE)
  4. Fred Jackson (RB)
  5. Philip Rivers (QB)
  6. Andy Dalton (QB)
  7. San Francisco Defense
  8. Ed Dickson (TE)
  9. Bilal Powell (RB)
  10. Andre Brown (RB)
  11. Benjarvus Green-Ellis (RB)
  12. Ryan Tannehill (QB)
NOTES: More of the same with backup QBs and running backs. A few intriguing picks are Brandon Myers and Bilal Powell. Myers is a #1 TE and is a steal in this round if you have been waiting until now for a TE. He was not a big end-zone target in Oakland, but Eli utilizes his tight ends much better in the Red Zone. The Jets are B-A-D, Bad, Bad, Bad, but they do need a RB to carry the load. Chris Ivory will be that man, but he gets hurt every year. Powell looked very good at times last year and could find himself with 10-15 carries a gain when Ivory is healthy and 20+ when Ivory gets hurt. Also, Andre Brown is now getting no love due to dis broken leg. You can grab him here and then stash him on your IR, if your league allows it, when he is designated as Out and pick up a top remaining free agent, such as Danny Woodhead.

Round 12
  1. Jacquizz Rodgers (RB)
  2. Alshon Jeffery (WR)
  3. Nate Washington (WR)
  4. Denver Defense
  5. Zach Sudfeld (TE)
  6. Chris Givens (WR)
  7. Mark Ingram (RB)
  8. Jared Cook (TE)
  9. Brian Hartline (WR)
  10. Brandon LaFell (WR)
  11. Stephan Hill (WR)
  12. T.Y. Hilton (WR)
NOTES: There are some nice receivers that are well worth a roster spot in this round. If Alshon Jeffery can stay healthy, he will have a big year in Chicago.The passing game needs another receiver and he is a tall, though fragile, target. No one has taken a Jets receiver yet, with good reason, but Hill could be their #1, for what that’s worth. T.Y. Hilton was a favorite of Andrew Luck in the second half of 2012. I don’t buy into Heyward-Bey knocking him down the depth chart.

Round 13
  1. La’Veon Bell (RB)
  2. Bernard Pierce (BAL)
  3. Denarius Moore (WR)
  4. Houston Defense
  5. Daniel Thomas (RB)
  6. Chicago Defense
  7. Pittsburgh Defense
  8. Andre Dobson (WR)
  9. Brent Walsh (K)
  10. Zac Stacy (RB)
  11. Michael Bush (RB)
  12. Jonathan Franklin (RB)
NOTES: By now, there is no way to predict what will happen to these players. Slow owners will remember that it is best to back up their stud RBs and a few people will jump on the remaining top defenses before the inevitable rush in week 14.

Round 14
  1. Shonn Green (RB)
  2. Delanie Walker (TE)
  3. Mohamed Sanu (WR)
  4. Arizona Defense
  5. St. Louis Defense
  6. Cincinnati Defense
  7. New England Defense
  8. Rob Housler (TE)
  9. Green Bay Defense
  10. Brice Brown (RB)
  11. Baltimore Defense
  12. Steven Goskowski (K)
NOTES: The second to last round of the draft. This is where Defenses should be drafted since there is not a lot that separates them in most normal scoring systems. This could vary greatly if your league also awards points for low yardage and points allowed. By now, a few over-zealous owners have grabbed Houston, Denver, Seattle and San Fran. Do not panic and follow them down this path. Wait until this round and grab Cincy, if possible. I love their defense this year. I also expect solid defenses in Arizona, St. Louis, New England and Tampa. Don’t buy into Baltimore, Green Bay, Philly as those solid defenses are in the past.

Round 15
  1. Matt Bryant (K)
  2. Greg Zuerlein (K)
  3. Justin Tucker (K)
  4. Josh Brown (K)
  5. Garrett Hartley (K)
  6. Robbie Gould (K)
  7. Matt Prater (K)
  8. Atlanta Defense
  9. Phil Dawson (K)
  10. TB Defense
  11. Sebastian Janikowski (K)
  12. Adam Vinatieri (K)
NOTES: The last round of the draft. This is where Kickers should be drafted since there is not a lot that separates them and no one can predict how many opportunities each will get. My usual strategy is to draft one with a Bye in weeks 10-12 so I don’t have to worry about that position for over half the season.